Guatemala heads to the polls in what is deemed to be a fraudulent election
Tomorrow, Guatemalans of 18 years old and above will head to the polls to vote for their next president and vice president as well as 160 deputies of the Congress of the Republic, 340 municipal corporations, and 20 titular deputies to the Central American Parliament. The first round of the presidential elections will take place tomorrow, whilst the second round is planned to be held on the 20th of August. The sales of alcoholic beverages will be prohibited from today (Saturday 24th June) at 12h00pm until 6h00am on Monday the 26th of June.
To further understand the elections, this article aims to provide an overview of the candidates and what to expect tomorrow.
The elections: “modern electoral fraud”?
Although Guatemala is a democracy, the upcoming elections have been marked by removal of candidates and accusations of fraud. Although 21 candidates will be competing tomorrow, many candidates have been banned from doing so. The Latinobarómetro highlights that 65% of Guatemalans do not trust the democratic process and that 57% of the population would potentially support a non-democratic government. In January 2023, the indigenous leader Thelma Cabrera and former Human Rights attorney Jordán Rodas (now in exile in Spain) were barred from standing in the election as candidates for the Movimiento de Liberación de los Pueblos, a lef-wing anti-system political organisation that advocates for the recognition of indigenous rights, as the Electoral Court of Guatemala denied their registrations to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. Later in May 2023, Carlos Pineda, a right-wing populist, was also banned from the elections. Pineda was ahead in the polls at the beginning of May with a 23% voting intention in the polls. Both Pienada and Cabrera had criticised the corruption wthin the current government. Arzú-García Granados from the Podemos party has described the upcoming elections as “modern electoral fraud” that stems from “institutional co-option” as we see candidates being excluded and others being favoured.
Following the undemocratic blocking of candidates before the elections, many people will be observing tomorrow’s polls such as admission of observers from the European Union, to make sure that the voices of the voters are guaranteed and they are able to exercise their choice freely.
The Candidates
In the latest poll conducted by Prensa Libre on Thursday, the candidate leading the polls is Sandra Torres for the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), a centre left politica party, with 21.3% of the voting intention. Edmond Mulet of the centre-right Cabal party is in second place with 13.4% of the voting intention and Zury Ríos, the daughter of the previous authoritarian leader Efraín Ríos Montt, is in third place holding 9.1% of the voting intention as the candidate for the right wing Valor-Unionista party. But who exactly are these candidates?
Poll from Prensa Libre
Sandra Torres
Sandra Torres is well known in Guatemala as she served as the country’s first lady between 2008 and 2011 as her husband of the time, Álvaro Colom was elected president in 2007. Torres and Colom later divorced as Guatemala’s constitution states that direct relatives cannot compete for the presidency. Torres was a candidate in both the 2015 and 2019 elections, however, she did not win the presidency. Currently, she is ahead of the polls and it is very likely that she will reach the second round which will be held in August. Torres’ main objective is to “transform Guatemala to achieve equality, where women and men have the same opportunities; where young people find employment and where we can all develop with peace of mind”
Edmond Mulet
Edmnond Mulet was president of the Guatemalan Congress and a deputy for 12 years. He has previously directed the Guatemalan embassies in the United States, Belgium, and Luxembourg. He ran in the 2015 elections and became third in the 2019 elections, just below Sandra Torres. The Cabal party is a relatively new party that Mullet created in November 2020. Mullet’s manifesto is based upon modernisation by modernising the state, society, and the economy. For instance, he vows to fight against corruption whilst also ensuring more employment opportunities and expanding access to better health care and education. Furthermore, Will Freeman suggested that Mullet could be the most democratic option as President for Guatemala.
Zury Mayte Rios Sosa
Zury Ríos is a defender of the strategy that Nayib Bukele in El Salvador has used to tackle gang violence - a model she has suggested that could be used in Guatemala. In terms of political experience, she has spent time as a congressional deputy, during which she presided over the Foriegn Relations Commission. However, the image of her father, Efraín Ríos Montt looms over her candidacy as he came to power via a coup d’état in 1982 - one of Guatemala’s bloodiest periods as we saw the genocide of the Mayan population. Rios is running a campaign of protecting lives and protecting family values, hence, she strongly advocates against abortion rights, something which is illegal within the country with few exceptions if a pregnancy threatens the mother’s life.
What to expect?
Eyes around the world will be watching Guatemala tomorrow as the country votes for its next leader and congressional deputies, an election that could potentially see high levels of fraud. As a result, the future of democracy within the country is somewhat questionable, especially due to the lack of faith that the population has within the political system. From the latest polls that we have in hand, it is likely that Sandra Torres and Edmond Mulet will head to the second round - however, this is also questionable depending on whether free and fair elections will be adhered to. The ability of the presidential candidates to succeed with their manifestos will depend on the number of seats they will win in the congress.
Keep tuned for our analysis on the election’s results.
*Photo from Al Jazeera.