Decaying democracy leads to a hybrid regime in Peru
The Peruvian crisis elevated after former president Pedro Castillo was arrested and Dina Boluarte (Castillo’s Vice President) accepted the presidency, radical groups continued to take the streets and demand more deep changes, including resignation from Boluarte and a reformulation in the Congress. In response to the tragic outcomes from these protests: more than 60 deaths (in between civilians, policemen and indirect incidents coming from the street’s blocking and lack of medical attention related to the political crisis), 72 roadblocks and at least a 1.000 wounded; Boluarte proposed early elections at first for April 2024 and then earlier this January she requested for 2023 in order to bring “stability” to the country. Based on the constitution, Boluarte’s is set to be President until July 28th 2026, fulfilling the five years mandate that commenced when Castillo took the presidency in 2021.
The early election proposal is to hold general elections in October 2023, the challenge is that the decision is now in the hands of the Congress, left-wing and right-wing politicians have been discussing a balance point for them to agree and bring up a resolution for the executive. This week the Congress had different discussion sessions in order to vote in response to Boluarte’s proposal. Nevertheless, there are two positions: the left-wing is pushing - and it’s a non-negotiable point - for a new constitution which Castillo did propose when he was still in power; and the right-wing is asking for Dina Boluarte to renounce in order to then have executive elections, others are requesting that elections on April 2024 would be the best solution.
The new constitution request follows the idea of calling a constituent assembly within thirty days through a referendum, letting the population vote if that’s what people would like to have as a solution for the political crisis. The current constitution was drafted in 1993 by the dictator government of Alberto Fujimori’s and throughout the political crisis in the country, the left-wing has recurrently proposed to call for a constituent assembly to which elected popular representatives would gather in order to agree on specific rules included in a political constitution. Though, article 206, from Fujimori’s constitution already contemplates the constitutional reform that provides the opportunity to modify and update the Constitution without actually calling a constituent assembly. In December 2018, a Peruvian constitutional referendum held place in which modifications were made to the constitution as for example:
Elimination of immediate re election of congressmen;
Elimination of Nation Council of Magistracy, replaced by the National Board of Justice;
Rejection of congressional bicameralism.
Following this political instability, The Economist has downgraded Peru from a “flawed democracy” to a “hybrid regime”, given that the country has had six presidents and three different congresses since 2016. Analysts are even discussing what exactly is demanding the Peruvian population in terms of political representation and what would be the best solution in this case as Congress is far from getting to an agreement, Boluarte has reconfirmed several times that she is not renouncing but has not been able to control manifestation violence and stability toward the country.
What to expect?
If Dina Boluarte renounces, still political crisis will continue as this has been happening with the last presidents that have taken the executive leadership;
With the resignation of Dina Boluarte, the next person in line to assume presidency would the Parliament’s President, José Williams with early elections held on 2024 without congress validation upon this matter;
It has been learned that the major problem radicates in the Congress, if José Williams assumes the presidency, separation between branches and weights and counterweights would not be balanced;
The repeated request for a constituent assembly is just confusing many of the population that keeps calling for it, without knowing if that’s the accurate solution for this political crisis;
Congress will need to take a more radical decision if they want to assure their political positions, even if early elections are held and if they want to still respond to decisive stakeholders behind political parties. As discussion sessions have been delayed, postponed or no agreement has come out from their sessions.