What is ahead for the governing party, Frente de Todos, in Argentina?
Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s statement stated that she will not run for office in the 2023 general elections has brought a great deal of uncertainty to an already uncertain political scenario for Argentina, but especially for the political party, Frente de Todos - known as a front for all.
Peronism is currently on an uncertain path as we go towards the 2023 presidential elections, since it is not clear whether President Alberto Fernández will effectively run for re-election next year. In this scenario, there has been speculation inside the Peronist coalition that Kirchner would be the ideal candidate - due to her strong leadership skills, demonstrated during her 8 years as President- in order to bring back stability to a country where inflation (85% annual rate to november 2022) and an increasing poverty rate (36% of people live below the poverty line according to the National Institute for Statistics) are among the top concerns of the vast majority of the population, and President Fernández is blamed by many for that.
Apart from the extremely delicate economic situation Argentina is going through, the Peronist coalition is facing serious political problems, the main one being the disconnection between its most important leaders. Despite having denied it in a recent interview, Fernández acknowledged that he and his Vice President have been quite distant due to ‘some punctual differences’. These differences have been seen numerous times throughout his administration, but one of the biggest contentious points between Fernández and Kirchner- and the left wing inside the coalition that she leads- has been the International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt restructuring achieved by the former Finance Minister, Martín Guzmán, very close to Fernández. The left wing of peronism led by Kirchner and her son, Máximo Kirchner, opposed this deal with the IMF, for both ideological and economic reasons.
Although this may have been one of the most conflictive issues in these two leaders’ relationship, the fracture in the coalition was already evident after peronist defeat in the 2021 midterm elections. This year, the press claimed that Alberto Fernández and Cristina Kirchner spent more than three months without speaking to each other. At the same time, numerous albertistas, (those supporting the ideologies of Alberto Fernández) Secretaries and Ministers- such as the already mentioned Guzmán and former Minister of Production Kulfas- have resigned throughout the last year, seemingly due to great pressure from Kirchner’s wing which seems to be winning power inside the government.
In a scenario where the peronist coalition is severely fractured, and the President does not even seem to have strong political support neither inside his own cabinet nor in public opinion- a San Andrés University report shows that his approval rate is at 21%- it would seem unlikely that Fernández will seek re-election. However, even if he does, he is likely to have some competitors in the primaries, especially from Kirchner’s wing.
As it was previously stated, in this scenario Kirchner seemed to be the ideal candidate for next year, one who could bring back stability through a strong leadership in peronism. Strong leadership precisely is a historic feature of peronist governments, and one that Fernández administration has lacked according to many of his adversaries. Therefore, Kirchner’s strong personality and leadership skills-made her the obvious choice to restore order in a coalition that has been craving for it for more than a year now. Nonetheless, her resignation to run for office has raised one major question for Argentina’s politics: who will be the peronist candidate running for next years’ election?
This question clearly does not have a clear answer. Firstly, it seems according to what the President said in the already cited interview, it is likely that the ruling coalition will face primary elections in 2024. In terms of the names that Argentines will see in the peronist ballot, it is still too early to say.
As it was stated, Alberto Fernández has been ambiguous on this, and he has claimed that he is not thinking about reelection right now. However, he also stated that he does not believe that Kirchner will not run for next year’s elections.
Another strong political figure that Frente de Todos may have for next year is Sergio Massa. Massa currently holds the position of Minister of Economy, although he actually has considerable power since he also controls agriculture and production, which used to be independent ministries. What stands out about Massa is that he seems to have not been affected by the gap between Fernández and Kirchner, and both of them trust him. This is why they gave him the challenging mission of trying to handle Argentina’s chaotic economic situation, with an inflation which will reach over 100% by the end of the year.
According to the cited San Andrés University report, Massa’s positive image rate is 24%, making him one of the most popular leaders in the coalition. Nonetheless, it should be noted that these numbers are far from worrying for opposition leaders, since Horacio Rodriguez Larreta (the mayor of Buenos Aires) has a positive image rate of 40%. Besides, the same report shows that 62% of civilians show discontent with Massa’s measures and the way he is leading the economy. This could severely damage Massa’s possibilities to run for office next year.
As the Minister of Economy of a country which has been living in an economic crisis for, arguably, the last 4 or 5 years, Massa has an extremely difficult job. His arrival to the Ministry was conceived by Fernández’ administration as peronism’s “saviour”, both to save the economy and to seek to win 2023 general elections. Nonetheless, analysing Massa’s popularity according to the polls, the country’s economic performance would have to improve drastically within the next year in order for him to have a chance, and for peronism to retain power in spite of having a weak President. Due to how unlikely it is that the Argentine economy improves to that extent in only a year, Massa’s claims of having no intentions to be a candidate next year seem to be strategic, since it would be extremely difficult for a Minister of Economy with 100% inflation rate to win the presidency.
In this context, the Frente de Todos does not seem to have a natural candidate for the 2023 elections. If neither Kirchner nor Massa decides to run for office next year, the peronist coalition faces some problems since it does not have strong candidates, at least according to public opinion polls. Some names that have appeared since Kirchner's claims are that of the Interior Minister Eduardo de Pedro; the Argentine Ambassador to Brazil Daniel Scioli; and the Provincial Governor of Buenos Aires Axel Kicillof. All of them could be identified under Kirchner wing, especially de Pedro and Kicillof, since both of them served as Ministers during her Presidency in the past.
As for President Fernández, however ambiguous he has been around the issue of reelection, some claim that he will run, and that he is unlikely to even win the primaries against the ‘cristinista’ formula. Either way, it seems an extremely difficult election for peronism, due to both its political fracture and, and most importantly, the disastrous economic situation.
Social tensions
The biggest political risk arising from this situation is social unrest. As stated earlier, Kirchner is thought to have around 20%-25% of support, especially in vulnerable social sectors. Despite the fact that Argentina is not seeing the level of mobilisation that was so characteristic of Kirchneristas governments in the past (between 2003 and 2015, during Nestor and Cristina Kirchner’s administrations), this situation could trigger mass protests in the streets. In other words, the public's perception that this a political decision to take Cristina out of politics could lead to massive support for her.
It is no news that a judicial decision can produce a huge political disruption, and there is a lot of speculation on whether peronist supporters will go out to the streets in support of Cristina Kirchner and drastically change the country’s political landscape.
The big risk, however, is that these protests could become violent as a result of confrontation between peronist supporters and opposition-led Buenos Aires city police, which the country has already seen this year. The social tension that could potentially be produced by these processes adds to the already extremely polarised society; and the delicate economic situation. Nevertheless, it should be noticed 3 weeks after the conviction became public, there has not been any notice of violent protests around the country.
The impact this judicial decision will have on Argentina’s political system remains to be seen, as it is not yet clear how the actors across the political spectrum will accommodate with the new scenario- one, apparently, without Kirchner in the spotlight-. Because of her key relevance in Argentine politics- not only is she the most popular leader in peronism, she is also the figure around which opposition will make their political strategy- one could expect that it will have a lasting impact on social movements, peronist supporters and society in general. Whether she finally decides to be a candidate or not next year is highly likely to determine who the opposition candidate will be.
Conclusion
As we can see, the future does not seem too bright for the Frente de Todos. At least it will come with great difficulties. In 2023, it will be vital to follow how political tensions inside the coalition develop and, in view of those tensions and the way they resolve, we will be able to know who the peronist candidates will be.
Of course, Kirchner’s decision on whether she will eventually run for president or not will be key, since Argentina’s political landscape is highly likely to reshape according to her decision. Because of her relevance, it will not be the same for a ‘Juntos por el Cambio’ candidate to run against her or another Peronist candidate. It is likely that their strategy would be different if Kirchner would be the candidate, since her strong figure would probably demand a more ‘hawkish’ approach.
In spite of their numerous problems, peronists are not the only ones who are facing political challenges and tensions in Argentine politics. ‘Juntos por el Cambio’ also has to define who their candidate(s) will be. As it has been mentioned, Rodriguez Larreta seems to be the strongest one, but there are some other names like former Minister Patricia Bullrich and former President Mauricio Macri who have been appearing several times in the media and who may want to compete against Rodriguez Larreta in the primaries.