What does Lula’s win in Brazil mean for future Brazilian-Argentine relations?
The process of Brazilian elections was being closely followed by Brazil’s neighbour, Argentina. This is not a surprise, as Brazil’s importance as Argentina’s main economic partner makes it natural that in Buenos Aires, there are always expectations about the future resident of the Palacio da Alvorada.
Brazilian-Argentine relations driven by ideology
During the last 30 years, the political process in both countries was aligned. In the ’90s, many Latin American countries adopted the Washington Consensus, a series of economic policies that included trade liberalisation, privatisation of public companies, and deregulation. In Brazil and Argentina, Fernando Enrique Cardozo and Carlos Menem implemented a set of free-market reforms. Under this neoliberal framework, Brazil and Argentina took the first steps to create MERCOSUR, a trade bloc to promote free-trade and economic integration in the southern cone. When the region saw its first pink tide as voters moved from voting for neoliberal governments to left-wing governments, Nestor Kirchner and Lula came to power simultaneously, assuming office in 2003. This new political reality in the two South American neighbours impacted regional integration. With Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, Kirchner and Lula created the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), an intergovernmental organisation that, in contrast to the Southern Corner Market’s (MERCOSUR) exclusive economic orientation, aims for a more comprehensive integration in the political, social, and cultural spheres.
In the mid-2010 the pink tide started to shrink, and the right-wing governments came back to power; this process brought Mauricio Macri to the presidency of Argentina in 2015 and Jair Bolsonaro to the presidency of Brazil in 2018. Macri and Bolsonaro maintained good personal relations and ideological affinity, although Macri’s political position is closer to the center-right. An issue in which both presidents shared identical views was the criticism of Nicolás Maduro and Venezuela; both leaders called for actions against the Latin American country. Similar to what was seen during the pink tide, right-wing governments engaged in the process of regional union. For instance, Brazil, together with Argentina and other right-wing governments, launched their initiative for regional integration by creating the Forum for the Progress and Integration of South America (PROSUR). This organisation served as a counter-project to UNASUR, a regional integration process devoid of left-wing ideology.
In the 2019 presidential elections in Argentina, Mauricio Macri lost to Alberto Fernández, former chief of staff to Nestor Kirchner. The ideological distance between Fernández and Bolsonaro couldn't be bigger. Antagonist political positions governed South America's two most important countries, the far-right in Brazil and the left-wing populism in Argentina.
The relationship between Fernández and Bolsonaro was tense from the beginning, as the Brazilian president declared his support for Macri and didn't attend Fernández’ inauguration ceremony. Bolsonaro frequently criticised Fernández' government, from its social and economic policies to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ideological differences between Brasilia and Buenos Aires transcended politics and reached personal animosity. The Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, called Bolsonaro a misogynist and violent. Even the sons of the presidents got involved when Eduardo Bolsonaro mocked Alberto Fernández’s son, a famous influencer and LGBT activist. Despite these lows in the political and personal relationships between the South American presidents, the economic relations remained mostly unaltered. Brazil is the main destination of Argentine exports and second only to China as the primary source of imports.
The ideological differences between Fernández and Bolsonaro are seen most clearly in the question of MERCOSUR. Alberto Fernández considers MERCOSUR “the most important regional integration project for Argentina”. Bolsonaro’s stance on MERCOSUR’s role could not have been more different to Fernández’ views. On many occasions, Bolsonaro sent the message that MERCOSUR was not a priority for his administration. Bolsonaro unilaterally lowered the common external tariff, and the Minister of Economy, Paulo Gedes, addressed the necessity of reform and modernisation of MERCOSUR to better suit Brazilian interests.
What does Lula’s victory mean for Brazilian-Argentine relations?
Considering Lula’s recent win in the Brazilian elections and the return of a left wing government in Brazil, what does this mean for future relations between Brazil and Argentina? With this panorama of ideological rivalry between Fernández and Bolsonaro coming to an end, it may sound reasonable to think under Lula’s new administration, Brazil’s relations with Argentina should improve. Regarding Brazil’s foreign policy and integration in the Americas, it is arguable that we will see more collaboration between both countries as well as with other left wing governments in the region which include that of Gabriel Boric in Chile and of Gustavo Petro in Colombia, etc. Celso Amorim, Lula’s previous Foreign Minister, even suggested including Argentina in the BRICS, so Lula’s comeback to power could mean strengthening cooperation between the two countries in regional and extra-regional forums.
Even though Lula has won the elections, we must recognise the domestic challenges that he will face during his new presidency which may hamper him from carrying out an ambitious foreign policy. The current situation of Brazil and the Americas are very different from that seen during the 2000s. For instance, looking at the international context, the Ukraine War has shaken the foundations of the economic and political world order, which have led to severe economic consequences for Latin America. Furthermore, domestically, Lula faces a great challenge as Boslonaro’s party is the largest political party in both houses. With such power over the legislative, Bolsonaro is in a position to block Lula’s legislative initiatives. The prospect of a dire economic situation, together with fierce opposition from Bolsonaro in Congress and the streets, would limit Lula’s room for manoeuvring on domestic and foreign policy.
Legal challenges in Argentina: a parallel between Lula and Cristina Kirchner?
Current Argentine Vice President, and the leader of the Kirchnerist and Peronist movements, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, is facing legal challenges. She is facing the prospect of a 12 years prison sentence if declared guilty. The mirror of a winner, Lula, is a mirror she would like to see herself reflected. Not only triumphant in the elections but also the courtroom. Since Lula’s conviction was overturned, adherents of Kirchnerism compared Lula’s experiences to their leader’s judicial woes. The governor of Buenos Aires province, and the right hand of Cristina Kirchner, recently made parallelisms between Lula and Kirchner’s judicial troubles, portraying both mandatories as victims of lawfare. The triumphant comeback of Lula, a victim of lawfare, suffered imprisonment and, like the Phoenix, raised from the ashes of incarceration to Brazil’s presidential office. For Cristina Kirchner and her supporters, this scenario is convenient not only for their political views but also to create a climate for a Kirchnerist victory in the presidential elections of 2023 and relief from judicial troubles.
Conclusion:
What impact will Lula’s victory have on Argentina? Some opposition members doubt that Brazilian elections could have such a substantial impact on Argentine voters. In a scenario of an inflation rate close to 100%, a climate of political polarisation, and internal struggles in the ruling coalition, the Argentinian government welcomed the news of Lula’s victory. Alberto Fernández was the first leader to meet with Lula after his victory in the polls. But the question remains, will Lula’s victory help to influence Argentine voters in the 2023 general elections considering the severe economic and political crisis within the country? Kirchnerism has high hopes that Lula’s victory would contribute to winning the presidential elections in 2023, bring relief to Cristina Kirchner’s judicial troubles, and bring back the glorious days of Latin American integration that was seen at the beginning of the 21st century.
*The image used in this article was taken from Lula’s twitter account.