Will Ecuador have a new president in the coming weeks?
On March 29th, the impeachment trial requested by the National Assembly against Guillermo Lasso, President of Ecuador, was approved by the Constitutional Court. The final decision was six votes in favour and three against, This result has raised uncertainty and concern among the Ecuadorian population in recent weeks.
A political trial or an impeachment in Ecuador is a national legal scheme to exercise control over rulers and different public bodies through the supervisory power of the National Congress, in this case over the national President, Guillermo Lasso.
Lasso was elected on May 24th, 2021. He comes from the political party CREO (Creating Opportunities). After 2 years of mandate, he has been recognised for the economic reactivation following the COVID pandemic, but also for his lack of popularity as seen in the sectional elections and the referendum held on February 5th 2023, in which not only the changes to the Constitution proposed by the Government were rejected, but also the movement led by former President Rafael Correa, won the victory in several cities.
Returning to the news, as mentioned, the trial was requested by the National Assembly with the objective of achieving a presidential dismissal arguing crimes against the public administration and embezzlement.
In this sense, the Constitutional Court declared a partial admissibility, accepting only the embezzlement crime accusation and ruling out the crime of extortion.
The accusation was based on the existence of some contracts between the public company “Flota Petrolera Ecuatoriana” and Amazonas Taker. One of the arguments for this accusation is that despite the fact that those contracts were detrimental to the fiscal coffers, they were renewed with the presumed approval of Lasso.
Regarding this decision, on March 16th, an official statement was issued by the Ecuadorian Government rejecting the approved process, alleging that it is more an act of destabilisation. Another on March 29th, arguing the lack of arguments from the National Assembly.
Indeed, Guillermo Lasso´s position is to defend himself from the accusations before the “Inspection Commission”. There will also be a trial period and finally, the process will conclude with a final report to proceed to the vote.
From this fact, the Assembly has a maximum period of 45 days to submit the president to the impeachment process. In the end, to remove the president, a majority of 92 of the 137 electors, which is equivalent to two thirds of the chamber, is required to remove the president.
Notwithstanding the above, Guillermo Lasso may use another legal figure called "The death cross", established in the 2008 National Constitucion, article 148. It means that the president could dissolve the National Assembly and call for early general elections.
This option could only be used by alleging one of the following criteria:
If the National Assembly assumed functions that constitutionally do not correspond to them, prior favourable ruling of the Constitutional Court (CC).
If it repeatedly and unjustifiably obstructs the execution of the National Development Plan.
Due to a serious political crisis and internal commotion.
This procedure also allows the president to govern by decree for up to six (6) months until new presidential and legislature elections are called.
Despite this alternative, Lasso has stated that he will not resort to this figure, saying: “I could not invoke the death cross, leaving the doubt of what it would happen with the politica trail because I am a democratic person”.
In other words, he affirmed that he will not avoid the impeachment, and that he will do everything on his part to prove his innocence. Nevertheless, the Death Cross is a presidential prerogative that will be in force until the last minute before the congressional vote.
It is important to remember that a similar situation happened in June 2022, the Assembly's first attempt to impeach Guillermo Lasso. By that time, the National Assembly did not achieve the number of votes needed to approve the impeachment.
In fact, the result of this attempt was a prolonged indigenous strike, which ended in violent protests and great economic losses.
Unfortunately, the current situation is not far away from the past. Indeed, Ecuadorian politics has been involved in similar situations before, as other presidents have been impeached such as Abdalá Bucaram (1997), Jamil Mahuad (2000) and Lucio Gutiérrez (2005).
In essence, these are the scenarios that could occur:
Dismissal of Guillermo Lasso and the assumption of Alfredo Borrero, now vice president.
Lack of the minimum votes to achieve the dismissal of the president, therefore, Guillermo Lasso as president for two years more.
Death cross happening, dissolution of the National Assembly, government by decree of President Lasso during 6 months and new elections
In addition to all this political instability, there is a serious situation of insecurity in the country.
Therefore, the Ecuadorian future for the coming weeks will be:
The civil society will be in total tension due to the chaos regarding the political instability that there will be in any of the above scenarios. In fact, a polarisation in society could be generated, leading to social and political protests, and an erosion of public confidence in government institutions.
There will be an inestable and non-unified government. This could also be an open door to other crimes and irregularities as it acts as a perfect smokescreen. In fact, if the president stays, the opposition will do everything possible to boycott his mandate.
The other stage will be a new president and a new government with all implications that this may have.
Negative economic impact, including uncertainty in the markets, a decrease in foreign investment and the possible affectation of the confidence of investors and the business community.
In addition, for the private sector, the outlook is not encouraging, as it will increase the country risk, generating fear of investment and paralysing future projects.
*photo taken from here.