The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan 20 years after it ousted the Taliban. The Taliban has recently seized Kabul, pledged to pardon the opposition, struck a more moderate tone internationally, and made overtures to regional powers. Nonetheless, the international community remains skeptical of Taliban promises, and regional/world powers have several risks to consider.

First,Taliban rule may generate hostilityamong the populace that could generate a civil war. Second, there is concern Afghanistan will once again harbor terrorist organizations. Even strategic competitors likeChina, the US, andRussia have long-standing concerns regarding terrorism, and Pakistan’s expressedconcerns over terrorism fall flat given theirhistorical support. Third, a refugeeexodus could be destabalising and would represent a concern for theEU as well. Fourth, regional powers’ political calculus in the era of strategic competition may lead to cautious but growing relations with Kabul. ExpectChina,Russia, andIran to consider tepid partnership with Kabul. Lastly, some argue withdrawal has damaged US credibility. Biden has defended his decision to withdraw, but allies see risks thatUS domestic politics will undermine American commitments.