On 12th July, US President Joe Biden landed in Israel at Ben Gurion Airport, near Tel Aviv, to kick off his Middle Eastern trip. Before leaving for the region, Biden vowed to “strengthen strategic partnerships” with important allies such as Saudi Arabia, as well as “deepen and expand” the normalisation of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Arab world in the pursuit of “a more stable and integrated Middle East”. With both domestic and international crises on his plate, his trip presented an opportunity to alleviate pressures at home, whilst also adding momentum to a united Middle Eastern front in response to increased Iranian aggression.

With his predecessor doing his level best to dismantle the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the Trump administration had proposed the establishment of an ‘Arab NATO’ to deal with the Iranian threat. Otherwise referred to as the ‘Middle East Strategic Alliance’ (MESA), this alliance was initially supposed to include six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – in addition to Egypt and Jordan. However, enthusiasm for the project quickly waned, as Arab leaders viewed it as an American ploy to scale back its military posture in the region at the expense of Arab security. Some countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, simply were not on speaking terms. However, major changes have been brewing in the region of late, and enthusiasm for the project seems renewed – with an added Israeli impetus.

Upon touching down in Israel, Biden reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security and emphasised the “bone-deep” US-Israeli relationship. Despite disagreements between the two states on how best to deal with Iran, Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid signed a joint declaration committing to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Despite largely being a symbolic declaration, the statement outlined the US’ intentions to utilise “all elements of national power” available to it to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.

Taking the second-ever flight directly from Israel to Saudi Arabia, Biden then landed in Jeddah for two days of meetings with Saudi officials and leaders from across the Gulf region. Following his campaign pledge to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah”, in response to the killing of American-Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018, Biden arrived in the Kingdom in a weaker position than he would have hoped before meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). With Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine hiking up global oil prices, MBS’ cooperation in reducing the pressure on American consumers would do a world of good for a President who is currently suffering from lower approval ratings than his two predecessors. However, with Biden’s best diplomats trying to revive the JCPOA, it appears the US has been quietly utilising this recently pledged use of “national power” for some time in pursuit of a more integrated Middle East.

In June, the Wall Street Journal reported the existence of a secret meeting in Sharm El Sheikh convened by the US in March. This meeting reportedly consisted of top military officials from the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, and Bahrain, and included discussions on coordination against Iranian missile and drone threats. Not too long ago, a meeting such as this would have been considered unthinkable. However, with the increased frequency of Iranian drone and missile attacks on its Arab neighbours, and Israeli existential fears growing as Iranian nuclear capabilities reportedly develop, such concerns have pushed these previously opposing states towards cooperation. This follows a more intimate gathering that reportedly took place in November 2020 in the city of Noem, Saudi Arabia. The Israeli media reported that then-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, joined by former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, met with MBS to discuss President-elect Biden’s future Iranian policy. With Jordan’s King Abdullah II publicly lending his support for the formation of a Middle Eastern military alliance recently, it now appears that the idea of an ‘Arab NATO’ is gaining significant momentum again. The foundations of these remarkable developments seem to have been in the works since 2020 with the signing of the Abraham Accords, normalising diplomatic relations between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. These two states became the third and fourth Arab states to establish diplomatic relations with Israel; Egypt and Jordan being the first two.

Of the purported ‘Arab NATO’ members, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar do not currently have open diplomatic relations with Israel. State officials had previously outlined that no steps towards normalisation would be taken until a viable Palestinian state is realised. Before the Abrahams Accords, most Arab states were hesitant to publicly embrace Israel due to the deep-seated negative attitudes that many among their population hold towards the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territories. Opposition to Israel has also functioned as a unifying principle for Arab states in the face of American interventionism in the Middle East. However, with Iranian aggression continuing to grow, Arab governments have prioritised geopolitics over the Palestinian issue. Subsequently, MBS is seemingly content with covertly cooperating with the Israelis in the interest of national security and allowing his neighbours in the Persian Gulf to establish ties in pursuit of similar interests. With Naftali Bennet becoming the first Israeli Prime Minister to visit Bahrain in February, a member of his delegation stated such a meeting would not have materialised without prior Saudi approval. Despite such developments providing ample reason for optimism, MBS will likely drag out his own Kingdom’s normalisation process for some time to extract maximum gains from the US.

Beyond covert talks, an alliance already seems to have materialised, with Benny Gantz, Israel’s defence minister, recently notifying members of the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, that Israel has already been assisted by the US on improved military cooperation with its Arab neighbours. He stated that this involves the development of a Middle East Air Defence (MEAD) system that “is already in action and has already thwarted Iranian attempts to challenge Israel and other countries in the Middle East”. Despite few details of the MEAD system being publicly available, it reportedly consists of a region-wide network of radar systems and batteries of missile interceptors. With Israel’s well-established ‘Iron Dome’ system routinely intercepting missiles launched by Palestinian militants, its new-found Arab allies can be confident of Israel’s advanced defence system in dealing with hostile projectiles.  

The purported members of any potential ‘Arab NATO’ or MEAD system have much to gain through increased military cooperation. With some states facing increased missile attacks, an Israeli-style ‘Iron Dome’ system would be of significant use for states such as the UAE which have been subject to increased airborne attacks from Houthi rebels in Yemen. In fact, the Moroccan military recently signed a $500m deal to buy an Israeli missile-defence system in response to increased tensions with Algeria. For the Israelis, the sharing of intelligence and the establishment of early-warning missile detection systems across the region could prove to be a significant countermeasure to a nuclear-armed Iran. US forces based in Qatar already use intelligence and tracking data provided by allies to intercept Iranian Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) heading for Israel. Increased interoperability of allied states’ defence systems could enable reliance on one another to fill national defence gaps and collectively consolidate a united front against Iranian aggression. Such reliance would also allow the US to reduce its military presence in the region without losing considerable clout. Whilst joint troop manoeuvres and an Article 5-style NATO agreement currently seem improbable, further military integration between Arab states and Israel could condition the aggressive Iranian rhetoric.

Military cooperation has potentially significant political implications too. A formal alliance between previously adversarial states may produce the ‘EEC effect’, in which an economic, or otherwise, reliance upon one another could deter future conflicts. This would also allow for a tailor-made mechanism of dispute resolution and coordination during times of regional crisis. However, should an ‘Arab NATO’ move further towards a serious alliance, purported members such as Saudi Arabia would have to open formal diplomatic relations with Israel first – a momentous development in itself. With the Kingdom recently granting approval for Israeli commercial airlines to cross its airspace, such steps offer hope that normalisation is in the works. Should President Biden intend to seriously pursue the ‘Arab NATO’ project, he must maintain this momentum of good faith and further encourage Saudi-Israeli rapprochement, if there is any hope of Israel and Arab states leading a public and united front against Iran.