A (Near) Broken Alliance: Hezbollah and the FPM
It has been almost nine months since former Lebanese President Michel Aoun left office in October 2022 following an unsustainable presidential term and no replacement has yet been elected. Aoun's presidency coincided with financial and economic crises that drove the majority of the Lebanese into poverty, large protests against the government that protested systematic corruption and demanded reform, and a devastating blast at the Beirut Port that resulted in no criminal prosecution. The country is currently in a political impasse due to significant economic and social difficulties, as well as internal disagreements that are preventing the country's leaders from settling on a presidential candidate. A near-collapse of a 17-year political alliance between Hezbollah, the Shi'i movement, and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) led by Aoun's son-in-law Gibran Bassil, is one of the most major repercussions of this political impasse.
This alliance, formed during Lebanon's political crisis from 2005 to 2008, began to fray as the two parties disagreed on the most suitable candidate for the presidency of the Republic. Jihad Az'our, a senior politician and former finance minister, is supported by Bassil and other Christian parties and independent legislators, whilst Hezbollah and its Shi'i ally Amal movement support Christian political figure Suleiman Frangieh. This heightened tensions between the two factions, with Bassil claiming that the Shi’i alliance of Hezbollah and Amal is attempting to impose its will on Lebanon by challenging the Maronite Christian's right to the presidency. Bassil further accused Hezbollah and Amal of attempting to persuade FPM parliamentarians to vote for someone other than Az’our. Hezbollah released venomous rhetoric against Az’our, branding him a confrontational candidate. A prominent Shi'ite Mufti, in line with Hezbollah’s rhetoric, escalated the accusations without naming A'zour, accusing him of being backed by Israel and declaring that "a president with an American stamp will not be allowed." Indeed, even if Frangieh, Az'our, or a third candidate like army chief Joseph Aoun could win the support of at least a simple majority of parliamentarians (65 members), they would almost certainly fail to meet the constitutional requirement of 86 deputies (two-thirds of parliament) for a legal electoral session, which is an important impediment in Lebanon's political struggle.
However, there is more than just the issue of the name of a president to the rift between Bassil and Hezbollah. Previously, the most visible instance of this rift occurred on December 5, 2022, when the caretaker government summoned a session organized by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement, despite Bassil's unequivocal refusal to convene the government before electing a President. Unsurprisingly, there was no minister from the FMP present during the session. Soon after, Gibran Bassil's anti-Hezbollah rhetoric took an odd turn. This was accompanied by a sharp increase in political, and sometimes sectarian, rhetoric between followers of the two movements on social media platforms, most notably on Twitter.
However, even though the two sides' alliance is weakening due to changes in the power dynamic and opposing objectives, a total breakdown in the foreseeable future is quite unlikely. Seventeen years after signing the agreement between the two groups, the tides have significantly shifted. In contrast to Hezbollah, which was exposed and threatened at the time, the FPM which was at its pinnacle at the time, is now substantially weaker. As a result, violating the 2006 agreement will ultimately hurt Gibran Bassil and his movement more than Hezbollah, even though Hezbollah still needs a Christian cover for its weapons to dispel the perception that it is a sectarian (Shi’i )arsenal. In the view of Hezbollah, Bassil's desire for party allegiance outweighs the party's need for Bassil. A total break would very probably result in Bassil switching sides and maybe inflicting political harm to the party by joining with its opponents. However, without Hezbollah's backing, Bassil's chances in future parliamentary elections would be substantially reduced, and his ambitions to become president would be dashed. Bassil's loss of Hezbollah support cannot be offset by Christian backing, no matter how many people he manages to rally behind his campaign.