Presidential Election Heats Up as Candidate Withdraws from Race
In a significant twist to the Turkish elections, Muharrem Ince, candidate for the Homeland Party (Memleket Partisi) withdrew his name for contention in the 2023 presidential election after what he said were “45 days of slander” he faced while on the campaign trail. In his resignation speech in front of the Homeland Party headquarters in Ankara, Ince claimed that he was being smeared with fake receipts, tapes, and documents that negatively affected his campaign. Ince remarked “I appeal to the slanders that have been thrown, to those who say 'he has received money from the palace, he is doing his duty, he cannot be withdrawn', and to those who have committed this despicable act. I have no fear of these plots, montages or fake receipts. I have been resisting for 45 days. I am withdrawing from the nomination. I'm doing this for my country.”
Ince’s announcement puts Turkish electoral law at a standstill, as there is no constitutional provision for a candidate to withdraw so late from the election. Ultimately, the decision on whether ballots already cast for Ince in overseas voting or any other ballots cast on election day Sunday are counted as valid will have to be made by the Supreme Election Council (YSK). Regardless, Ince’s name will still appear on ballot papers come Sunday. It is also uncertain at this time if another splinter candidate in the election, Sinan Ogan, who has a more ultra-nationalist background, might also drop out of the election. In a tweet yesterday, Ogan reassured voters that he intends to “battle until the end,” signaling that he intends to stay in the presidential race as one of the three remaining candidates in the election.
A number of rumors have been advanced as to why Ince decided to quit the race just 3 days before the election. One of which included the claim that the AKP was supporting his candidacy in an attempt to split the Nation Alliance’s vote away from Kemal Kilicdaroglu to prevent him from winning outright in the first round. Ince became viral on social media after his famous dance on a tour bus became popular amongst the generation Z cohort in Türkiye as his presidency became official. This was amid revelations made by journalist Nevsin Mengu that revealed Ince was being brought to the forefront by AKP-backed social media troll accounts in an attempt to make him more popular leading up to the election.
Despite some initial popularity surrounding his movement due to an appeal amongst some disillusioned CHP supporters adamantly against Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy, he has been losing momentum in the last couple of weeks. In a recent poll by KONDA research, Ince was polling at just 2.2% as of May 6-7. This is in stark contrast to just one week from April 29-30, where he was polling at 5.3%. Ince now trails behind another splinter candidate, Sinan Ogan of the ATA Alliance, who is polling around 3-4%.
Muharrem Ince was previously the candidate for the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) in the 2018 presidential election where he was able to obtain 30.6% of the vote. Yet due to a falling out with the CHP on election night along with CHP Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu after the defeat, he founded his Homeland Movement in September 2020 and eventually the Homeland Party on May 17, 2021. Presenting himself as a staunch Kemalist (Someone who supports the ideas of modern Türkiye’s founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk), Ince’s campaign centered around the idea of trying to provide a third option to voters in the election, instead of voters having to choose between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Much of his campaign promises were quite broad, such as pledging an independent central bank in order to restore economic orthodoxy, and claiming to be a voice for youth in the country who feel increasingly disillusioned by the mainstream parties.
Now that Ince is out of the race for president, it begs the question of who exactly will benefit from his withdrawal? Initially, it can be said that Kemal Kilicdaroglu might be the main beneficiary, as he has a slim lead over Erdogan in a number of polls. With Kilicdaroglu polling at around 48-50%, even just a small percentage of Ince voters who shift over to the Nation Alliance could make a difference for Kilicdaroglu as he has a chance of winning in the first round. At the same time, considering that the majority of Ince supporters are staunchly anti-Kilicdaroglu but not pro-Erdogan, his withdrawal could lead to them not going to the polls, as Ince has been quite critical of the CHP since his withdrawal from the party. There is also the possibility of some Ince supporters voting for Sinan Ogan as another splinter candidate, though more far-right than Ince.
The race for the presidency is sure to intensify over the next few days until Sunday. With most polls pointing to the likelihood that the election will go to the second round as Kilicdaroglu falls very short of the 50 + 1 threshold, the momentum is still shifting in his favor in contrast to Erdogan. Ince’s withdrawal might just be the boost Kilicdaroglu needs to win outright in what is sure to be a polarizing contest and Erdogan’s toughest elections yet.