Consolidation or Fragmentation: On the Parliamentary Elections
The forthcoming presidential elections in Turkey have drawn considerable attention from the international community, with analyses focused on the possible political ramifications of the race. However, it is important to note that the parliamentary elections also hold significant implications for the country's political landscape. In the event of an opposition victory, a strong parliamentary majority will be necessary to support the transition back to a parliamentary system, as this is a key platform of the opposition parties.
On the other hand, President Erdogan, who is trailing 5 to 10 points behind his main rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the polls, is likely hoping for an inconclusive first round of the presidential election and a decisive victory in the parliamentary election. This outcome would provide Erdogan with a powerful propaganda tool to convince voters in the second round that a parliament and president belonging to different political camps could lead to instability. Therefore, both sides have much at stake in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
That being said, the election system in Turkey is complex, and the number of seats each party receives is not solely determined by the number of votes they receive. On March 14th, 2022, a bill proposing to lower the election threshold from 10% to 7% was submitted by AK Party and MHP MPs, which was later passed by the parliament on March 31st, 2022, following a three-day debate period and became law.
In addition to the changes in the election threshold, the method for calculating parliamentary seats in Turkey has also undergone significant alterations. The previous method for calculating parliamentary seats in Turkey was based on the d'Hondt system, which takes into account the votes received by political parties, alliances, and independent candidates in each constituency. However, the amendment removed the word "alliance" from Article 34.3, which announces the calculation of parliamentary seats. Consequently, only the votes received by political parties and independent candidates will be considered when distributing parliamentary seats. This amendment has made it almost impossible for parties with low vote shares to win parliamentary seats through alliances.
The AKP's reasoning behind the passage of this bill was to minimize the vote potential of the fragmented opposition in the upcoming elections, and to maximize its own potential. This is particularly important for the AKP, as historically it has been one of the top two parties in small Anatolian cities that have few MP quotas. By reducing the election threshold and eliminating the possibility of winning seats through alliances, the AKP is attempting to consolidate its power and limit the ability of smaller parties to gain representation in parliament.
In the present scenario of the Cumhur and Millet alliances, strategic construction of their candidate lists has become crucial for both sides to achieve maximum election outcomes. Since the new electoral law has made it arduous for smaller parties to secure parliamentary seats through alliances, whichever alliance manages to contest the elections with joint lists will hold a significant advantage. This necessitates intense negotiations and meticulous consideration in the selection process.
At present, our insight into the ongoing negotiations within the Millet Alliance is limited. There are some speculations that CHP and IYI agreed to enter the election in a single list in 18 electoral districts which would be a significant boost for the both parties. However, it is also claimed that IYI Party is hesitant to create joint lists with other parties within the alliance, except for the CHP. This may be the reason for the current efforts to create “an alliance within an alliance”, led by former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's Gelecek Party, former Economy Minister Ali Babacan's DEVA Party, and the Islamist Saadet Party. The details of their proposed system are not yet known, but there are rumors that DEVA may want to participate in the elections with its own banner in at least 41 provinces, which could further complicate the ongoing negotiations.
Meanwhile, components of the Cumhur Alliance seem to be planning to contest the elections under their own banners, with the exception of the Kurdish Hisbullah's political wing, HudaPar, which will run on the AKP's lists. On March 28, Yeniden Refah Party (YRP) leader Fatih Erbakan announced that the YRP would enter the elections with its own list after holding a meeting with President Erdogan. Similarly, on March 29, MHP leader Devlet Bahceli made a similar statement. It is unclear whether this is the final position of the leaders of the Cumhur Alliance, or if they are attempting to solidify their position in negotiations and gain more concessions from the AKP, the largest party in the alliance. Nevertheless, the coherence of each alliance will be a pivotal determinant of their success in the upcoming elections.