Dread over Türkiye and Syria's Droughts Amplified after Earthquake
The fear of droughts in Türkiye’s Southeastern Anatolian region is nothing new. Over the past decade, Türkiye has experienced drought conditions continuously, particularly in Central Anatolia, Çukurova and the GAP area. The droughts in this area significantly impacted farmers' yields and Türkiye’s agricultural production over the past few years. The effects of drought have been more severe in Iraq and Syria, Türkiye’s riparian neighbours. These three nations rely on the flows of the Euphrates and Tigris, and throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, there have occasionally been conflicts over the water management of these rivers. Droughts would exacerbate the humanitarian crisis that has resulted from the earthquakes that affected Southeastern Türkiye and Syria on February 6, 2023.
The GAP promised to facilitate irrigation and significantly improve irrigation in the region. Türkiye’s gradual advancement in its water management agenda has arguably led to a 40% decrease in flows into Iraq and Syria. This is projected to worsen over the coming years. Due to the redirection caused by the GAP on the Euphrates-Tigris, the eventual loss of water flows into Iraq could total about 80% to 90%.
Activists across the three nations have been drawing attention to the fact that the Euphrates-Tigris are drying up. Last week, a group of Iraqi activists in the Maysan Governate of southern Iraq took to illustrate the dire situation. Many of the displaced Syrian victims of war in Syria have also been impacted by the same problem. The Khabur river, a tributary of the Euphrates that was a critical water source for several cities such as Hasakah, has also dried up. The water shortage has been attributed to a lack of rainfall and a cut-off in supply due to the dams upstream. Syrian farmers have had to endure heavy losses from war, but in part due to droughts. Even towns close to other reservoirs, such as Lake Assad, struggle with water supply due to the lack of rain, hot climates and water from Türkiye.
Veysel Eroğlu, a Member of Parliament for Afyonkarahisar and the former Minister of Forestry and water for the AK Party in Türkiye, said in a rare interview with the Associated Press that Türkiye could potentially agree to release a certain amount of water on the condition that Syria and Iraq offered to share consumption data. He also added that they could not agree to share a fixed amount, given the fluctuations in river flows due to climate change.
Only a few weeks after the earthquakes images emerged of images of small islands forming in the Kozan dam in Adana. Farmers suffered a 28.1% drop in the dam’s water level, putting significant pressure on farmers producing corn and wheat. Dr. Halim Orta, a professor at Namık Kemal University in the Faculty of Agriculture, described how the challenges posed by the aftermath of the earthquake and drought could have devastating consequences. According to the professor, the water supplies of cities throughout the region would be limited, and anyone with access to groundwater was fortunate.
Another Professor at Boğaziçi University, Dr. Murat Türkeş, warned that Türkiye might face a food shortage. If a region experiences no rainfall for three months, this is considered a meteorological drought; however, if this period extends to six months, it is known as an agricultural drought. The professor adds that if this continues for a year, it becomes a hydrological drought, at which point groundwater supplies must be depleted.
Both Syria and Türkiye will face challenging months ahead. The latter will have to mitigate the potential crises that could compound the struggles after the earthquakes of February 6. Another drought in the GAP and Çukurova regions could have major consequences for the nation, as the area is a powerhouse for Türkiye’s agricultural production. Lack of water supply could lead to public health risks, such as waterborne diseases due to lack of hygiene.
A more long-term trend that may reappear is the geopolitical debate over the right to control the river. Iraq and Syria have already made their dissatisfaction known over the dwindling water supply caused by arid climates as a climate change and the GAP. Türkiye’s water management policy and how it plans to act diplomatically as a riparian neighbour will be decisive in preventing conflict. This will be a major challenge with Türkiye itself facing severe shortages and with a steady water supply rendered invaluable as a result of the earthquake.