Behind the Millet and Cumhur Alliances — Elections Sitrep I
What is the Cumhur Alliance?
The Cumhur Alliance is a political coalition of three parties in Türkiye that currently hold the reins of power. It was established prior to the 2018 general election by the Justice and Development Party (AKP), the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and the Grand Unity Party (BBP). The Cumhur Alliance seeks to foster stability, economic growth, and national security in Türkiye.
The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is a conservative and Islamist party, has been in power since 2002 and is led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who previously served as the Prime Minister for more than a decade. The Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), a right-wing and nationalist party, has been a key partner of the AKP in recent times, and is led by Devlet Bahçeli, who has held the post of party leader since 1997. The Grand Unity Party (BBP), a far-right and Islamist party, supports the vision of the Cumhur Alliance for Türkiye and is led by Mustafa Destici, who has been the party leader since 2001.
In addition to these three parties, the Vatan Party (VP) is sometimes regarded as an unofficial ally of the Cumhur Alliance. The VP was founded by Doğu Perinçek, a prominent left-wing nationalist figure in Türkiye. Although the party's ideology is somewhat difficult to classify in conventional left-right terms, it is often described as a center-left nationalist party. What distinguishes the VP from other parties in the Turkish political spectrum, and explains its support for the Cumhur Alliance, is its Eurasianist ideology. The Eurasianist ideology in Türkiye is a political movement that emerged from the far-left movement in Türkiye. It is characterized by an anti-Western approach in foreign policy and ultranationalist sentiment in domestic politics. It is possible to draw parallels between the Turkish Eurasianist ideology and Ba'athism in the Arab world. The Eurasianists believe that Türkiye should leave NATO and end its bid for European Union (EU) membership. The ideology broadly encompasses the idea that Türkiye should reorient away from the West in favor of an Eastern and Central Asian hinterland.
The Cumhur Alliance's purported goals of maintaining political stability, promoting economic growth, and ensuring national security have been met with criticism by some observers. While the alliance claims to prioritize the interests of the Turkish people, its policies have been viewed by some as serving the interests of a narrow segment of the population. The alliance's emphasis on a strong government has also been criticized for its potential to undermine democracy and civil liberties in Türkiye. Furthermore, while the alliance's policies aim to improve the economy, infrastructure, and national security, their implementation has been marred by allegations of corruption and unorthodox economic practices.
These criticisms are part of a larger wave of discontent with the Cumhur Alliance, which has faced numerous challenges and criticisms, both domestically and internationally. Many experts argue that the alliance has become increasingly authoritarian, eroding democracy and civil liberties in Türkiye. The government's crackdown on opposition voices, journalists, and civil society groups has raised serious concerns about the state of freedom of speech and expression in the country. Additionally, the alliance's approach to minority rights has been widely criticized, with allegations of discrimination against Kurds, Alevis, and other minority groups.
Moreover, the government's foreign policy decisions have faced significant backlash from international partners, particularly regarding its military interventions in Syria and its strained relations with the European Union. The Cumhur Alliance's unorthodox economic policies have also come under scrutiny, as they have led to rising inflation and unemployment rates while failing to address long-standing structural problems in the economy. Despite these criticisms, the Cumhur Alliance remains a powerful force in Turkish politics, with significant support among conservative and nationalist voters in the country.
What is the Millet Alliance?
The Millet Alliance is a political coalition comprised of six opposition parties in Türkiye that seeks to challenge the ruling Cumhur Alliance in the upcoming 2023 general election. Established prior to the 2018 general election by four parties, it later expanded to include two additional parties. The Millet Alliance advocates for democracy, human rights, secularism, and social justice in Türkiye. The six parties comprising the Millet Alliance are: the Republican People's Party (CHP), İYİ Party (İP), Felicity Party (SP), Democrat Party (DP), Future Party (GP), and Democracy and Progress Party (DEVA).
The Millet Alliance's primary objective is to restore democracy, human rights, secularism, and social justice, which it believes have been undermined by President Erdoğan's authoritarian rule and his alliance with Islamist and Conservative parties, including the MHP. The alliance intends to achieve this by reversing the constitutional changes that introduced the presidential system in 2017 and reverting to a parliamentary system that ensures checks and balances, separation of powers, and representation of diverse voices. Additionally, the alliance pledges to uphold the rule of law, safeguard civil liberties, respect minority rights, and promote social welfare in Türkiye.
However, the Millet Alliance has faced challenges and criticisms, both internally and externally. Critics have expressed concern that the alliance is too heterogeneous and lacks a clear vision and strategy. Some members of the alliance have also expressed dissatisfaction with CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership style and decision-making process. Additionally, some voters may be hesitant to support an alliance that includes parties with different ideological orientations and histories.
Furthermore, the inclusion of the İYİ Party (IYI), a nationalist and secularist party, in the Millet Alliance has complicated potential alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP). The HDP has been a key opposition force in Türkiye but has faced legal challenges and political pressure due to its alleged links to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). The IYI Party’'s nationalist stance and past criticism of the HDP could make it difficult for the Millet Alliance to form a broader opposition coalition that includes the HDP. This issue highlights the challenges of building a broad-based opposition coalition in Türkiye’s highly polarized political environment.
Despite these challenges, the Millet Alliance remains a potent force in Turkish politics. In the 2019 local elections, it won several major cities, including Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir. The alliance also enjoys significant support among young people, women, minorities, and urban dwellers.