Erdogan apologizes amidst pre-election time
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Türkiye, apologized Monday the 27th of February, three weeks after the first earthquakes hit the southeast of the country and claimed more than 44 000 lives in Türkiye, for the slow and difficult relief efforts.
“Due to the devastating effects of the quakes and bad weather, as well as difficulties caused by damaged infrastructures, we were not able to work the way we wanted in the first few days […] for this, I apologize,” said Erdogan while visiting Adiyaman province, near the earthquakes’ epicenter.
This apology intervenes in a context of rising criticism over the government’s response to the tragedy, with the general elections only a few months away.
Scheduled for June, it was announced in January that the general presidential and parliamentary elections were being moved forward to the 14th of May. After two decades at the top of the Turkish state, polls suggest these elections are the tightest so far for Erdogan. Before the disaster, Erdogan's popularity had been eroded by the soaring cost of living and a slump in the lira. He has since faced a wave of criticism over his government's response to the deadliest quake in the nation's modern history. Given the technical difficulties to hold elections on time in the devastated zones, home to 13 million people, some thought that the government would postpone those high stakes elections.
But, according to Reuters, a contemplated option at the moment would be to hold the elections as initially scheduled, in June. This option to report them to the 18th of June may be discussed by Erdogan and his nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli to reach a final decision. A longer postponement may have been ruled out because of the general perception that such a decision would be for the government a way of avoiding the elections. The opposition’s vocal disagreement with the postponement, maybe in order to capitalize on the government’s poor disaster management, may have also played a role in the decision to hold the elections in June.
Finally, there is the legal issue of postponement of the elections: according to the Turkish constitution, elections can only be postponed by the parliament and only in case of war. Neither the declaration of a state of emergency nor a disaster justify and permit the postponement of elections. The Supreme Election Council, the highest electoral authority which ensures that the principles and rules of the constitution are upheld, does not have the power to adopt such a decision. The 1966 local elections that the Supreme Election Council postponed following an earthquake that hit eastern provinces two days ahead of the vote does not constitute a precedent because the circumstances are too dissimilar according to Osman Can, a prominent Turkish professor on constitutional law. Moreover, the only postponement planned by the constitution for general elections is a fixed one-year delay.
It therefore seems Recep Tayyip Erdogan would try to avoid a potential electoral backlash from the earthquake while holding the election before the illusion of his economic boost disappears. He also lacks the constitutional or political tools to postpone the elections beyond June. As of now, following the 1st of March declaration, the elections seem to be maintained to the 14th of May, although the option of a slight postponement to the 18th of June may not be totally ruled out.