GAP and the Aftermath of the Earthquakes in Türkiye
Over the past three weeks since the earthquakes that struck Southeastern Türkiye and Syria early in the morning on 6 February 2023, numerous lives have been lost, and problems have arisen. The death toll, accounting for Türkiye and Syria, stands at over 50,000, while the total of collapsed buildings is 160,000. As investigations and arrests into those responsible for the earthquake have already begun, another big question has flown slightly under the radar.
GAP (Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi -- Southeastern Anatolia Project) is a multifaceted project, considered one of the most expensive and mass-scale development programmes in the country's history. GAP encompasses nine provinces, including Adıyaman, Batman, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Kilis, Mardin, Siirt, Şanlıurfa and Şırnak. These provinces have experienced at least some level of devastation due to the earthquakes in February. The project was initially conceived to improve Türkiye’s water management, taking advantage of the energy and irrigation potential during the 1970s. However, over time, it has evolved to incorporate elements of sustainable human development and bring further employment opportunities to the region, such as tourism.
The project has had a controversial reputation, particularly for one of the most significant examples being the Bilecik and Hasankeyf dams, which have led to internal displacement and the inundation of historical sites such as the ruins of Hasankeyf and Zeugma. Whether the project has lived up to its vaunted potential has also been a fierce debate for years, with many arguing that its cost has not outweighed the benefits.
In light of the earthquakes, there is renewed interest in whether the dams have been affected by the tremors and what the aftermath may be for the region. On 2 February, one Twitter account made a claim that there were reports of damage to the Ataturk dam. This was followed up by another account, making a similar claim and then rumours of a major crack in the Birecik dam.
The vice president of Türkiye, Fuat Oktay, followed this by stating that all the necessary controls had been and will continue to be conducted, but there were no problems. The one exception was the Sultansuyu dam, where the main structure had cracks. Oktay added that there would be a gradual water discharge for safety purposes.
Dams with large reservoirs have been a cause for anxiety in the past, particularly in being a factor in seismicity. China is a case that has received more attention over the past month, with comparisons being drawn to the Zipingpu Dam project on the Min River in Sichuan. The region experienced a 7.9 magnitude earthquake on 12 May 2008, leading to cracks in the wall emerging. Some geologists believed in the theory that the loading and unloading of the crust could have contributed to the earthquake, but this was never confirmed. These fears have emerged again due to the similarities between the Zipingpu dam and the Ataturk dam, which also has a large reservoir.
According to Dr. Hasan Tosun at IntechOpen, the potential risk incurred through micro-cracks and fissures in the basement causing excessive water pressure, which can eventually lead to higher chances of movement between faults. In a situation where the tectonic plates are under high pressure, as is the case in South Eastern Anatolia, there is potential for an earthquake to occur.
At this point, the Turkish government has been relatively quiet regarding its reporting on the GAP. There are questions to be asked beyond the potential safety risks posed by the damage to dams and their potential role in increasing the likelihood of an earthquake. The GAP was intended as a human development project that boosted the agriculture and tourism industries. The overall contribution to the improvement of the agricultural sector has already been questioned in the past by locals and experts alike, but now more pressing concerns lie ahead. Agricultural producers of varying scales have suffered significant losses due to the earthquake, particularly in agriculture. Farmers have also suffered losses to livestock and equipment. Finally, drought fears have emerged over the past two years due to the limited snowfall. A potential drought would undoubtedly compound the stress felt by the people in Southeast Anatolia, considered some of Türkiye’s most fertile lands. Moreover, it would be another headache for the Turkish government, which is already dealing with its fair share.