Since the 30th November, over 650 schoolgirls have been poisoned by toxic gas in the Iranian cities of Qom and Borujerd, and the surrounding Lorestan province. The Iranian Parliamentary Health Commission has confirmed that the poisonings constitute intentional attacks, but Deputy Health Minister Younes Panahi states that the gas was made from publicly available chemicals, rather than military-grade agents. Symptoms include difficulty breathing, nausea, headaches and loss of limb movement, and hundreds have been hospitalised, though there have been no confirmed fatalities. The death of one schoolgirl in Qom was initially blamed on poison gas, but her family have since denied the claims, though there is uncertainty as to the legitimacy of the denial, with some claiming it was coerced by the state. The attacks have led parents to demand action from authorities, specifically school closures, with hundreds gathering to protest outside the Qom governor’s office last week. Almost 200 schoolgirls have been reported poisoned in the past week; attacks show no sign of slowing, and the lack of effective countermeasure or investigation offer little hope for the future.

While school closures and current plans to shift to online teaching initially appear sensible, these may be playing into attackers’ hands. There have been claims that the poisonings are being carried out in “revenge” for schoolgirls’ role in protests against the mandatory hijab and the Iranian state, ongoing since the death of Mahsa Amini on the 16th September 2022. Their specific targeting of young women in schools indicates desire to block female education in Iran. While this issue has been historically contentious in the region, such motivations are shocking in Iran, where women have outnumbered men in universities since 2011, and women’s rights to education are relatively accepted.  No one has claimed responsibility for the attacks, but there are concerns that they may be inspired by the Taliban in Afghanistan, where secondary school education for girls has been banned since 2021, or Boko Haram in Nigeria. Debate over women’s rights has escalated to violence in Iran before; current attacks are reminiscent of a wave of acid attacks in 2014 which targeted women drivers considered to be “badly veiled”. Those responsible were never apprehended, leading some to argue this might have set a precedent for today’s attackers. An even more worrying theory concerns the Iranian state itself, whose response has been widely criticised as inadequate and misleading, as it claims proper investigation into the gas attacks is impossible. Authorities appear to be trying to minimise media reporting of the poisonings, and have issued a series of contradictory statements about the attacks’ severity, including backtracking on assessments of attacker aims. Such variability, alongside authorities’ use of force against protesters, has solidified suspicions that the state may be involved, motivated by desire to punish and frighten a vulnerable group which has featured prominently in recent anti-state demonstrations - the largest and longest that the Islamic Republic has ever seen. The latest attack, on Tuesday 28th February, has been blamed on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, a primary branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, with a video on social media of the incident appearing to show members of the force as perpetrators. Human rights activists have called for external investigation as soon as possible, citing biological terrorism by the state against its people.

Iran’s security forces have been condemned for using excessive - often lethal - force against protesters since September 2022, resulting in hundreds of deaths - including public executions - and tens of thousands of detentions. The gas used in attacks was not military-grade, and as such would not represent a violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, which Iran ratified in 1997. However, if the attacks are linked to the state, it would likely spur further tightening of international sanctions. The US and Canada have already designated the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group, and such a development may push the UK, European Union and Australia - who have thus far opted to keep diplomatic channels of communication open - to do the same. Such measures would likely put an end to hopes for the renewal of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an international agreement limiting Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief. As the number of affected girls mounts, it remains unclear whether the impact of the attacks will be to dishearten or galvanise protest. Such aggressive measures, especially if blamed on the regime, could easily backfire into popular anger rather than fear. Targeting such a vulnerable group has the potential to constitute the “last straw” needed for the military to turn against the state, a turning point many have argued is all that stands between current demonstrations and full-blown revolution. For now, however, the prospect of a conclusive answer to who is perpetrating these attacks appears slim, and authorities’ weak reaction, combined with a trend of violence against its citizenry, does not give hope that attackers will be punished.