Lebanon’s Power Vacuum and the Economic Crisis
On October 31 2022, the President of Lebanon, Michel Aoun, left the presidential palace signalling the creation of a power vacuum as the elections to determine his successor were unsuccessful. Addressing his followers outside the presidential palace in Beirut, the Maronite leader, closely allied with Hezbollah who took office in 2016, said that Lebanon is approaching a new “chapter which necessitates huge effort’’, as the country struggles to recover from its severe financial crisis that started in October 2019. The above had been foreshadowed by the parliamentary elections that occurred in May 2022, and which resulted in a divided Parliament that is struggling to agree on a path out of Lebanon’s current crisis. Indeed, the failure of the political parties to elect Aoun's successor will further deteriorate living conditions in the country as no decisive steps will be taken to solve pre-existing problems.
Since the assassination of former PM Rafic Hariri in February 2005, a power vacuum at the level of executive power has somehow become a norm in Lebanon. However, unlike the past two decades, in which the political system was able to coexist with a caretaker government more than once or without an elected, as what happened between 2014 and 2016 (the third presidential vacuum since 2007), the parliament’s inability to elect a president will likely lead to further economic and social collapse. Lebanon has been suffering from an unprecedented economic crisis for three years and is currently run by a fragile caretaker government with restricted powers and a sharply divided parliament that lacks an explicit and clear majority capable of electing a new president.
Once described as the Switzerland of the Middle East, Lebanon finds itself crippled by the burden of an economic crisis that the World Bank identified as one of the worst in modern history. Most of the population now lives in poverty, as inflation has reached triple digits, and most people are unable to afford basic necessities, such as food and energy. A recent cholera outbreak in the country's northern part and Russia's pullout from a major grain export agreement have indeed exacerbated the situation, as the UN estimated in April 2022 that some 2022 million people in the country require aid with food security and health care. To make things worse, an unending electricity shortage has made many people depend on privately owned generators that are getting more and more expensive. All along, a political deadlock has been holding up the required reforms to secure foreign assistance and provide a lifeline for the country.
The latest presidential void will likely further aggravate the political, social, and economic crises in the Middle Eastern country, as noted by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs Barbara Leaf. Addressing an audience recently at the Washington-based Wilson Center, Leaf noted that she predicts ‘’a scenario where there is disintegration [….] where there's just an unravelling” while emphasising that “nothing we or any other foreign partner can do can take the place of what Lebanon’s own political leaders have failed to do to date: form a government and get to the urgent task of pulling Lebanon back from the brink.” Given the current crises, Lebanon's political leaders must reach a settlement to limit the damage caused by the presidential vacuum. Most importantly, the country’s political actors should reach a compromise to give the current caretaker government the freedom needed to conform to the needed economic reforms. But such a compromise, if it occurs, should not constitute an alternative to electing a new president, which is only a small, but important step in the country’s long road to recovery.