Looming Electoral Instability for Erdogan as Earthquake Reactions Sour
In 1999, Turkey experienced an earthquake to a similar size as the ones this week. The Izmit earthquake resulted in the death of over 17,000 people while several thousand others were injured. However, the disaster was an opportunity in disguise for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AK Party). The ineffective and inefficient rescue operations, combined with the lack of proper urbanisation regulations, caused the toppling of the then Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit-led coalition government and resulted in the rise of the AK Party and Erdogan to national politics.
Over two decades later, the tables have turned. The opposition and the public are now scrutinising the AK Party and President Erdogan for the same issues they once used to foray into the peak of Turkish national politics. As the images, videos and testimonies of survivors and rescue operations come to light, it underscores the extent of destruction caused by the earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria. Alongside that, another topic of contention is the impact of the earthquakes on Türkiye’s presidential elections scheduled on 14 May of this year.
The presidential elections are crucial for President Erdogan as the country experienced one of the highest inflation rates of 58 percent in January. Were it not for last-minute economic policies at the turn of the new year, the inflation rate would be around 85%, where it hovered for much of last autumn. It is because of several reasons, including the pandemic and Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies that resulted in an economic crisis in Turkey, and a record fall in the value of the Turkish lira. Apart from the economic woes, the opposition has repeatedly accused the ruling, particularly Erdogan, of corruption, cronyism, and authoritarianism as he won elections in 2017 through a narrow margin that authorised increasing presidential powers through a series of constitutional reforms.
Even so, Erdogan is trying to fight the situation by putting up a brave face as he took centre stage in Ankara post-earthquakes and assured citizens. As per the latest developments, Erdogan announced a state of emergency in 10 provinces so that rescue teams could quickly carry out relief work, though he did not elaborate. The emergency will last, if lifted, to right before the scheduled elections. State of emergencies are not new to Erdogan: he used the same emergency provisions after the 2016 failed coup – provisions that lasted 2 years – which allowed him to radically alter Turkish political and civic society.
Despite all these initiatives, frustration is only growing. Several regions have no access to food, water and electricity, making it even more difficult for people to deal with the harsh subzero temperatures in the impacted areas. Also, there are several districts wherein the rescue team has yet to arrive.
Consequently, Erdogan highlighted his government’s “shortcomings” during his visit to Hatay on Wednesday, one of the most devastated provinces, but insisted it was “impossible to be ready for a disaster like this.” Be that may, this disaster can make or break Erdogan’s image in the eyes of voters. It depends on Erdogan’s disaster relief management, which is already being intensely scrutinised by journalists and NGOs across Türkiye and the world. The post-earthquake rehabilitation and reconstruction of the impacted provinces will play a significant role in the sway toward or against him in the upcoming elections. Just as Erdogan seized power over 20 years ago on the heels of ineffective and inefficient earthquake relief, he may be facing the same reality in May. After all, what was once Erdogan’s largest headache – the economy – has now been dwarfed by the ongoing humanitarian crisis.