How do industry insiders see the market prospects for 2023 after divergent assumptions regarding oil prices?
The International Monetary Fund reduced its projection for oil prices in 2023 to $73 per barrel at the end of this year. This move came only a few days after the OPEC+ coalition announced a global production cut, bringing the reduction to 1.6 million barrels per day, prompting many analysts to expect new oil price hikes to reach $100 a barrel this year, which also led to a rise in oil prices in the same week, due to market fear about the sector's future.
The most recent OPEC report indicates that the projected increase in global oil demand for 2022 is 2.5 million barrels per day, which is almost unchanged from the previous estimate and, in the opinion of experts, reinforces the potential of higher prices this year.
Furthermore, contradictory remarks by experts led to further confusion regarding the future of the energy market. In this regard, Omod Shukri, for the "energy" platform and a specialist in oil markets, claimed that companies and analysts use various approaches and assumptions when establishing their predictions, which may also affect how people interpret oil prices. He said, "Some organisations may adopt a supply-and-demand strategy that focuses on elements like inventories, production, and consumption, while others may use an economic strategy that is based on elements like global economic growth and inflation."
The demand for oil may decline with the rise in prices, which subsequently results in reduced prices, since the International Monetary fund anticipated a slowdown in economic development. This is to say that OPEC expects that demand will remain at levels, and that the group will be able to deal with the increased prices, while also pointing out that the elements that the IMF and OPEC assess may not be the same.
Due to the numerous factors that might impact supply and demand, there are frequently contrasting opinions when analysing the pricing of oil. The amount of oil in the world's stocks is one of the significant elements that might have an impact on pricing. When inventories are low, it may signal a tighter market and cause prices to rise. A surplus may be present and affect pricing when stocks are excessive. The amount of output from non-OPEC nations like the United States might also have an impact on oil prices. The emergence of shale oil has helped the US become a significant oil producer in recent years, which has an impact on US oil production levels on global oil supply and demand and therefore impacts oil prices.
Prices are also significantly influenced by demand from China and India, two of the most prominent economies on earth. The economies of these two nations are expanding quickly, and in the years to come, it is anticipated that their need for oil will rise much further.
Since the oil market is intricate and dynamic, it is crucial to take a variety of elements and viewpoints into account while analysing and predicting oil prices. As a result, predictions for oil prices are uncertain and unpredictable due to the wide range of potential outcomes in the global energy markets as well as the lack of clarity around the future of the world economy.