The Diaspora’s Role in the Presidential and Parliamentary Elections
With just under a week to go until the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, numerous polls indicate a neck-and-neck race between Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu. Both are the respective candidates for the People’s Alliance (Cumhur Ittifak) and the Nation’s Alliance (Millet Ittifak) going into what is arguably the most critical election Türkiye has had since it transitioned into a multi-party system in 1950. Voter turnout is expected to be high in this election, with over 60 million people eligible to vote and an expected voter turnout between 80 and 90 percent. Although the turnout is expected to be high domestically in Türkiye, the diaspora vote will also be influential, with 3.4 million Turks eligible to vote in the upcoming election, making up around 5 percent of the electorate.
As of May 5th, 1,328,317 ballots were cast by voters living abroad, indicating a voter turnout of just under 40% so far. This number has nearly surpassed the ballots voters cast in the 2018 presidential and parliamentary elections with 1.53 million out of 3 million. In the case of the previous election, Erdogan was able to garner 59.4% of the vote, ahead of his main rival Muharrem Ince who got 25.8%, followed by the pro-Kurdish HDP candidate Selahttin Demirtas at 11.1%, IYI party leader Meral Aksener with 3%, and Felicity (Saadet) party leader Temel Karamollaoglu at just 0.6%. These statistics show that Erdogan has the upper hand in the diaspora vote which were influential in him winning both the 2018 presidential elections in the first round, and the controversial 2017 referendum that transitioned Türkiye’s political system from a parliamentary system to a hyper-presidential regime that eroded checks and balances and the rule of law in the country.
This time around, Erdogan will try to double down on the diaspora vote as his voter base erodes domestically in Türkiye mainly due to the worsening economic crisis and lagged response to the February 6 earthquakes. This is especially the case in Western Europe where most votes are cast for the AKP. In the 2018 presidential elections for instance, Erdogan received 71% of the ballots cast in Austria, 63% in France, 64% in Germany, and 72% in the Netherlands. In previous elections, Erdogan has relied extensively on state resources to mobilize support amongst Turkish expats from his conservative base in Europe, even sending ministers to campaign in Germany and the Netherlands to vote yes for amendments to the Turkish constitution in 2017, which resulted in a diplomatic crisis in both countries. Erdogan has relied heavily on nationalist rhetoric to sway voters in these countries to keep up his ‘strongman’ image. With Erdogan in a close race to try and win the presidential election in the first round, an increase from the diaspora vote could make a difference in the election, despite the authoritarian strategies Erdogan could use to win especially if it is still too close to call on election night.
Even within the diaspora, there are high levels of political polarization as overseas voting continues. In an attempt to get voters to the polls, the AKP mayor of Emirdag, Serkan Koyuncu, traveled to Belgium to convince Turkish expats to vote for the AKP in the upcoming election. In Antwerp, Mayor Koyuncu and his bodyguards entered into a confrontation with Supreme Election Council (YSK) poll workers just outside of the voting area which resulted in some polling observers being beaten. These confrontations might be reflective of an even more highly polarized environment domestically in Türkiye, with the possibility of political violence as brawls also broke out in voting areas in Amsterdam and Marseille. At a voting area in Sydney, Australia, the main opposition CHP’s abroad organization filed a criminal complaint following the discovery of unsealed ballots already being stamped in favor of the AKP. These events show that election security and the securing of ballot boxes will continue to be an important issue as the election date nears.
Despite the fact that opposition parties in Türkiye have not been as successful as the AKP in reaching out to Turkish expats, presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu called on Turkish expats to vote for change. In a video posted on social media, Kilicdaroglu remarked “I am calling out to our citizens from abroad who will vote. I invite all of you to our Halil İbrahim Table to bring spring to our country and to raise Türkiye’s reputation in the world to the highest. And hear our special promises for you. You have a responsibility to get the country back on track.” These remarks are reflective of the Nation Alliance’s attempt to reach out to expats and to convince them to vote for change based on conciliatory and unifying rhetoric to restore peace and democracy. Both alliances in the election are paying increased attention to the role that Turkish expats could play in the election, but considering the vast state resources at disposal for the AKP, it is highly likely that they will continue to mobilize high electoral support once overseas voting for the first round ends on May 7th.