The Home Stretch
As the clock ticks down to Türkiye’s imminent elections, the latest polls reveal a closely contested race with a slight lead for the opposition's Kilicdaroglu. Against this backdrop, the political landscape is becoming increasingly charged.
President Erdogan is striving to rally his base and woo conservative voters disenchanted with his leadership due to economic hardship by adopting a polarizing discourse. He aims to exploit the points of contention between the various political groups and factions that make up the opposition camp. This has created a tense political climate that is taking its toll on the electorate, leading to violent incidents such as the recent shootings at the offices of three political parties.
As the election draws near, and the possibility of a second round looms, the rhetoric is likely to become even more polarizing and volatile. Erdogan is expected to continue exploiting various fault lines, including the issue of Alevis. Alevism, a heterodox Islamic tradition that differs from mainstream Sunni Islam, represents approximately 10% of Türkiye’s population. The visibility of the Alevi identity in the public sphere has traditionally been limited. However, Kilicdaroglu's recent video in which he openly discussed his Alevi identity and emphasized the importance of making just and honest decisions garnered overwhelming support. Nevertheless, members of the ruling Cumhur Alliance have criticized his statements as "sectarian" and "malicious," with President Erdogan expressing his frustration and stating that "there is no need to talk about" one's Alevi identity.
Another issue being politicized by Erdogan is the LGBT community, with homophobia being widespread in Türkiye. Erdogan has been attempting to portray the country's LGBT community as part of a Western-originated conspiracy aimed at destroying the "Turkish Family Structure" in order to force opposition politicians to take a stance on LGBT rights, a divisive issue with supporters and opponents on both sides of the political spectrum. Erdogan's initial game plan was to include a referendum on an amendment to civil law that would redefine marriage in the upcoming election's ballots. However, the AKP shelved the amendment following the 6 February Earthquake. Nevertheless, Erdogan's campaign strategy remains to marginalize his political opponents by associating them with the LGBT community. He recently stated at a rally in Giresun, a city on the Black Sea, that "We are not pro-LGBT, we are against LGBT. The Republican People's Party (CHP) is pro-LGBT, the IYI Party is LGBT, and the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) is pro-LGBT. Family is sacred to us."
Lastly, Erdogan is trying to weaponize the ideological divergences between pro-Kurdish HDP supporters and the nationalists within the opposition camp supporters. The Turkish government's crackdown on the Kurdish political movement, including the arrest of more than a hundred politicians, journalists, and lawyers, aims to intimidate and paralyze the Kurdish opposition while exploiting delicate cooperation between the Kurds and the rest of the opposition. In every rally, Erdogan and other AKP political figures, such as Minister of Internal Affairs Suleyman Soylu, reiterate that the opposition wants to free imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan, despite no such statements being made by the Millet Alliance components. Erdogan’s coalition partner MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli even said that voting for Kilicdaroglu means voting for Qandil, referring to Iraq's Qandil Mountains where PKK's ruling cadres are located.
Behind this push is also a motivation to criminalize the opposition altogether, raising questions about whether Erdogan is willing to concede defeat in the case of a potential opposition victory. Recent statements made by the Cumhur Alliance side suggest otherwise, with Soylu describing the May 14 elections as a political coup attempt, and Erdogan warning that "my people will not hand over this country to someone who becomes the president with the support they receive from Kandil." These remarks might be reflecting a determination to hold onto power at any cost or a careful deliberation aimed at spreading fear and discouraging indecisive voters from joining the ranks of the opposition. Regardless, such statements made by the political elite carry a grave danger as they might cause undesirable outcomes, particularly if the outcome of the election is closely contested.