The impact of the earthquake on Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Northwestern Syria
As the Assad regime has slowly regained control over vast portions of the country in 2023, Syria's northwest, controlled by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, has remained elusive. The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a coalition of rebel forces stemming from groups such as al-Nusra Front, has retained control in the Idlib province and parts of the surrounding Aleppo countryside.
In efforts to consolidate and legitimise control, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has established the Syrian Salvation Government, which has operated as a quasi-government, offering a range of services from local administration to higher education. As a result of the Kahramanmaras earthquake and its after-shock, Northwestern Syria has been brutally damaged, with casualties estimated to be over 2000 dead and an additional 3000 injured . In the face of the disaster, the Syrian Salvation Government and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have attempted to direct all efforts into humanitarian aid. As of the 8th of February, Abu al-Zubair al-Shami, a senior Hayat Tahrir al-Sham commander, called on all military formations and factions to head to the earthquake-affected areas to provide rescue and relief services.
In the face of such disaster, however, efforts by the Syrian rebels have been underwhelming due to a lack of local equipment and expertise as well as the alleged reluctance of the Assad regime and foreign actors to provide aid to the rebel-held areas; as reported by the Baladi network: the first aid convoy entered the rebel-held areas 4 days after the initial earthquake, further contributing to the humanitarian disaster. In addition, according to the Syrian Salvation government website, rescue efforts have been complicated, with little hope for survivors stuck under rubble. The Syrian Salvation Government and the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have attempted to establish prefabricated shelters for survivors; however, these efforts have fallen short of an expected response.
As international governments, including the UAE, Oman, and Jordan, have directed their relief packages and efforts through the Assad regime, the future of the rebel forces in northwestern Syria is brought into question. Firstly, being unable to provide sufficient relief following the disaster, questions arise regarding the rebel's self-proclaimed ability to administer the territory and offer services to its citizens effectively. In addition, the earthquake's impact on military infrastructure, resources, and rebel fighters is yet to be mapped; however, it can be predicted that it is a severe drawback in their war efforts. The Hayat Tahrir, whose military forces were approximated to be between 6000 - 15000 in 2022, prior to the Ansar al-Din Front and Nour al-Din al-Zenki Movement split, will be on the ropes, in regards to its fighting capabilities in the future - potentially opening a gateway for the reconquest of Northwestern Syria by the Assad-regime.