Worsening Israel-Palestine relations: The Iranian Factor
With the rise in clashes and air strikes between Israel and Palestine along the Gaza Strip, the tensions between Iran and Israel continue to become increasingly hostile. The recent statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stressing that “Israel is ready to fight Iran on multiple fronts if it needs to,” and the Iranian President’s speech at a pro-Palestinian rally vowing to provide “full support for resistance” have severely strained already-tense relations. Over the past few decades, the Israel-Iran relations have fluctuated across periods of amicability and hostility, and have significantly impacted the political landscape of the Middle East. In light of such increasing hostility, this article undertakes a historical analysis of relations between the two states to understand their evolution and potential impacts on future conflicts.
What is happening right now?
In light of the increasing attacks on the Israel-Palestine front and Iran’s unequivocal support for the Palestinian resistance movement, relations between Israel and Iran have consistently soured. Iterating its hostility towards the same, Israeli PM Netanyahu has been seen commenting that “95% of Israel’s security problems come from Iran,” and that Israel “will do all it can to prevent Iran from establishing terror fronts.” These offensive ambitions have been exacerbated following the launch of Operation Shield and Arrow earlier this month, under which a series of air strikes have been conducted along the Gaza Strip. The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have claimed that the aerial bombings were aimed at the residences of the commanders of Iran-backed Palestinian Islamic Jihad. As reported by Al Jazeera, the air strikes have also damaged essential infrastructure along the Gaza Strip, particularly the al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir al-Balah and the Indonesian hospital in northern Gaza. In light of such worsening tensions, it is crucial to understand the causes behind the nature of such relations.
What has driven Iran-Israel hostility? An overview of the past:
While assessing the historical trajectory of relations between both countries, most scholar divide its evolution in four phases: the period of ambivalence from 1947-1953, the friendly period from 1953-1979, worsening of relations following the Iranian Revolution from 1979-1990 and the on-going hostilities since the end of the Gulf War in 1991.
The Islamic Revolution proved to be a crucial turning point in Iranian domestic and foreign policy initiatives, characterised by anti-imperialism, Arab leftist radicalism and Muslim antisemitism. Israel, at the time, was viewed as an ally of imperialism due to their advances into the now-disputed Palestinian territory.
By the mid-1970s, in light of the worsening Palestinian occupation, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi extended support to the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) based in Lebanon and Syria. Naturally, Israel viewed these actions with animosity and tensions worsened with talks of Iran’s growing nuclear capability. Shortly after the Israeli invasion of Lebanon of 1982, Iran began to foster closer relations with the Lebanese Shias and eventually began heavily supporting Hezbollah, which viewed “the Iranian regime as the vanguard and nucleus of the leading Islamic State in the world.” Since then, Hezbollah has acted as an important proxy for Iran, significantly assisting Tehran in its opposition to Israel.
In the 1990s, Iran bolstered its support for Hamas through funding and assistance in manufacturing makeshift arms out of everyday items. However, around the time of the Syrian civil war, Hamas-Iranian relations were strained, as a result of support provided for opposing factions; Hamas-Iranian relations witnessed a resurgence in 2017. Since then, with an increase in attacks across Israel and Palestine, in addition to the engagement in proxy conflicts by both stakeholders, the relations between Israel and Palestine have gradually worsened. Israel’s proximity to the United States and its opposition to Iran's nuclear ambitions have furthered this divide. This hostile nature of relations continues to impact the political landscape of the Middle East even today.
The way forward?
Over the past few years, the Arab-Israeli antagonism has approached rapprochement, particularly as a result of the 2020 Abraham Accords. This normalisation of relations with most Arab countries has shifted the focus of hostility from Israel unto Iran, mainly due to its rising nuclear ambitions and involvement in proxy wars across the Middle East. However, the recent rapprochement between Saudi-Arabia and Iran is said to have a potentially significant impact on Arab-Iranian relations in the near future. This could also have an impact upon Iran-Israel relations positively, resulting in greater normalisation among all the regional parties, eventually leading up to more cooperation. On the other hand, however, it could have a negative impact on the complex dynamics of the region, particularly since the Saudi-Iran normalisation has changed the narrative of ‘defining the enemy,’ which had transcended hostility from Israel to Iran. Since Saudi Arabia continues to hold political influence in the region, it can be speculated that countries such as Egypt, Morocco and Bahrain might move forward with such enhanced cooperation. As a result, such a normalisation could give rise to a strive for gaining better relations in the region with Arab states, thereby once again souring relations between Iran and Israel. Consequently, this can have an impact on the Palestinian situation, since such wavering influence could also impact the support of Arab countries towards the cause. While Saudi Arabia may dictate a considerable influence in the matter, its growing animosity towards the UAE for leadership of the Gulf Cooperation Council and passive involvement by the United States could further exacerbate the situation. This could significantly impact the direction of peace in Palestine over the next decade.