The Arctic’s role as an arena for Great Power competition is cemented as the US fully commits to contesting the strategic frontier

The US Department of Homeland Security has released its first ever Arctic strategy. It recognizes the Arctic’s “expanded relevance” economically, but also strategically as key and heavy emphasis is given to the US need to respond to “nefarious actors” in the region, with Russia and China specifically singled out, and the Arctic’s role as a buffer zone for the US placed at the forefront of its value.

While this specific emphasis is unsurprising from a security body, this is a document which alongside the USA’s other post-2018 Arctic strategies from the Navy, DoD, Coast Guard and Air Force cumulatively represent a historic shift in post-Cold war US Arctic policy from a ‘hands off’ environmental focus, to one based around securitization and threat management, in a move which solidifies the region as an arena for ”Great Power” competition.

The paper is likely to further increase regional tensions. For instance the Department’s commitment to invest in expanding icebreaker capacity to attempt to match Russia, who while currently having a huge lead of more than 50 to the US’s 5, has made clear that it sees any increases in US Arctic military power as a threat which drives its own regional military build-up to match.

An Arctic arms race then looms as a distinct near-term possibility, especially as US partners in the region will also feel the effects of such an open shift in the US’s focus. Denmark for instance can be expected to be put under significant US pressure to expand their own Arctic programs and presence. The US indeed already flagged this in 2018 when it forced Denmark to stump up to prevent China from establishing a foothold in Greenland. Thus 2021 will see the Arctic’s role as an increasingly militarized Great power frontier continue with no easing in sight.