United States: The Potential Consequences of the Midterm Elections

Before, during, and after the forthcoming midterm elections in the United States, it is vital to consider the possibilities of instability and turmoil. The ramifications of the November 8 elections are even more consequential than a shift in politics or mere disagreements between Congress and the White House; many positions are at stake, and several seats are up for grabs. This upcoming election cycle will include contests for all 435 seats in the House, thirty-four Senate races, thirty-six state governorships, and thousands of other local positions. To say that this election season is crucial would be an understatement. According to many analysts, what will unfold is likely to be a continuation of what transpired in the aftermath of the 2020 election, which ultimately led to the events of January 6, mainly because it has been reported that about 200 candidates dispute the results of the 2020 election. 

According to Rachel Kleinfeld, political polarization has become more prevalent to the point that antidemocratic tendencies are taking hold inside the Republican Party. There are many reasons for this, including a shift in the economy, changing demographics, and a changing culture that have made elections not only a desire to change policies but a matter of survival. The resulting disorder could undermine Americans' confidence in their institutions. Likewise, the American political system could suffer an irreversible shock. 

Many experts point out that there is a rise in far-right candidates, whether running for federal or local office or procedural roles in the election system. What makes this election different from others in the United States is the concerted effort by the election deniers to access critical positions within the system to control the outcomes of future elections. Functions such as the Secretary of State of different election certifying boards are targeted by people who question the legitimacy of elections. 

According to Sarah Repucci, the United States is facing short-term and long-term challenges to its democratic process and the robustness of its institutions. In the short term, it can cause violence and clashes between supporters of the two major parties, as seen with the recent attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband. There has been extensive research on how political violence is normalized, especially on the far right side of the political spectrum. This is detrimental to the democratic process and erodes the trust in elections. In the long term, the United States might face a crisis of the legitimacy of its institutions, domestically and abroad. We have already seen this by how polarized many U.S. institutions have become while the people's trust in these institutions has decreased throughout the years.  

It is hard to predict how or if immediate violence will unfold. One possible outcome is a repetition of an attack on Congress, such as the one on January 6. Another possibility is distinct uprisings across the country, alleging voter fraud and questioning the vote results. Electoral maps of the United States illustrate that the divisions within the country's cities and urban areas are dominated by Democrats, while the Republican Party represents more rural areas. Additionally, some states may experience violence inside their boundaries. Unfortunately, this is already being played out by some candidates' language and attitudes that allude to or advocate for violence. 

The results of this election will be greater instability and a possible rise in violence. In a way, there is an expectation across the political spectrum, experts, and government officials that these elections usher in a new type of politics in the United States. One that brings further volatility, essentially weakening the American system and making it more unpredictable. The repercussions of these elections could be felt worldwide, and extremists and right-wing populist leaders may feel empowered and attempt to seize power by force; this has been alluded to by President Jair Bolsonaro during the Brazilian election.

Depending on the outcome, these elections could indicate a potential turning point for American politics. American politicians argue and project themselves as trying to usher in a new era of American power amid peer competition in this multipolar world. Nevertheless, their actions and communications show they are less committed than their comments suggest. With the rise of new power competition with long and ambitious goals and the geopolitics changing and becoming more intense, the United States can barely maintain its internal politics in agreement with its long-term objectives and successes.