A recap of the election
At four in the morning on March 1st, Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared a winner in the 2023 presidential election. The country successfully avoided its first ever presidential run-off election, however election results continue to be contested in court with widespread reports of complaints about the voting process.
As predicted by most regional experts, the winner of the presidential election is the incumbent All Progressives' Congress (APC) party candidate Bola Tinubu. Despite losing in the capital state of Abuja and his home state of Lagos, the former governor of Lagos had a consistent showing in all thirty-six Nigerian states, earning him the executive seat of Africa’s largest democracy. The final results show Tinubu winning 36.61% of the overall vote, roughly 8.8 million votes. Behind him, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 29.07% of the votes, while outsider Peter Obi – who won both Abuja and Lagos - only managed to obtain 25.4% of the national vote.
Opposition party presidential candidates, Peter Obi (Labour Party) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP), will contest the election results. Both parties, along with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) held a news conference in Abuja on February 28th, during which they gave a damning assessment of the election procedure and results. The parties alleged there was photo evidence of voting irregularities and large-scale voting manipulation, and have sought court permission to inspect all sensitive voting materials. The opposition also called for the head of INEC to resign and for the “sham” election to be annulled and rerun.
On March 1st, the Labour Party announced its plan to take judicial action over the election results. Peter Obi’s running mate, and Vice-Presidential candidate Datti Baba-Ahmed gave a statement to the press in which he made clear that “illegality was performed during the elections and therefore the incoming government is unconstitutional.” Obi himself addressed the press a day later, his official twitter account urging Nigerians to remain resolute, and claiming that he won the election and that he will reclaim his mandate through due process.
Runner-up Atiku Abubakar led a peaceful march of his supporters through the streets of Abuja to the INEC headquarters on March 6th. The march was littered with “Save our democracy from INEC” signs and “Democracy should not be murdered” t-shirts. A reflection of the mistrust of election results amongst citizens. Abubakar’s official twitter account also released a statement saying that he would not let up until the fraud is reversed. To sustain his judicial challenge of the elections, Abubakar has hired a nineteen-man legal team. His spokesperson clarified that this challenge is not for personal benefit but “born out of the need to strengthen democracy in Nigeria.”
The Election Process
This is the first Nigerian presidential election in which INEC implemented its new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and its Election Result Viewing Portal (IReV). BVAS is an electronic system used to verify voter fingerprints and facial features and is used instead of the formally used paper verification forms. Vote collation was supposed to be electronic, with live updates directly from the BVAS system to IReV. It was hoped that these systems would help build stakeholder trust, streamline the voting process, increase voter turnout, limit the potential for violence which has marred previous elections, and most critically, enhance transparency of results.
Despite billions of naira worth of investment in the system, BVAS has posed issues before. Its use in state elections in Ekiti and Osun in 2021 and 2022 proved problematic. Quartz reported that the Osun state gubernatorial election results had to be annulled after reported “over-voting.” It is no surprise that BVAS has created increased controversy during the presidential election.
Early on in the tabulation of votes INEC conceded that its IReV system failed to show live voting results, blaming it on “technical hitches” as the system was not scaled up properly for a national election. Results trickled in over several days, angering voters and testing the nation’s patience. However, INEC has rebuked the idea that its electronic system may have been sabotaged in any way. The lack of live results and the delay in vote tallying calls into question the capability of the BVAS and IReV systems. So much so that the upcoming governorship and state assembly elections have been postponed one week (now March 18th) so that BVAS can be reconfigured.
The election day experience has raised questions about the validity of the result. Nearly all major news outlets have reported sporadic violence, voting irregularities, and delayed voting due to long lines or delayed openings at polling stations. Both the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Commission have questioned election procedure and INEC’s role. The EU EOM’s preliminary statement suggests that INEC did well to keep the polls open during difficult circumstances, but it questions why there was limited training for personnel on the new BVAS and IReV systems, and states that the lack of system testing and public information about the systems leaves room for uncertainty.
The ECOWAS Commission’s preliminary declaration had similar findings. Most notably, the report states that polling stations were understaffed, and that staff showed inadequate knowledge of their duties. This in combination with delayed openings of polling stations, lack of supplies and training and long voting lines led to uncertainty about election legitimacy. ECOWAS also noted that the collation sequence differed in each polling station – although it claims that did not lead to any challenges – and that turnout was very low, despite there being over 93 million registered voters. Unfortunately, the commission also highlights the presence of sporadic violence on election day, including the killing of a Labour Party senatorial candidate, attacks by Boko Haram insurgents and ballot box burning and snatching across various states.
Despite the controversy, the election results have been widely accepted abroad. The US Department of State released a statement congratulating Tinubu on his win, and hailing the competitive election as a new era in Nigerian politics. Heads of state and foreign ministers from the UK, France and Japan, amongst others, have also congratulated Tinubu on the election result. This has been met with disapproval from the Nigerians in Diaspora Organisation (NIDO), who accuse world leaders of rushing to congratulate a president-elect despite fundamentally flawed elections. On the continent, Tinubu has already been recognised by the presidents of Niger and Benin and many of the governors within Nigeria.
The Consequences
Bola Tinubu will take office as the new president of Nigeria, and the APC’s grip on national politics will continue, albeit under scrutiny. Opposition parties are currently preparing legal challenges of the election results. Their lack of faith in the voting process has led them to call for the resignation of the head of INEC and for a complete rerun of the 2023 Presidential and National Assembly elections.
Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi initially called for calm, urging young followers to voice their lack of faith in the results and the voting system peacefully. Pulse Nigeria reports that on March 11th, the Obi campaign threatened to mobilise supporters - Obidients - to occupy INEC offices nationwide. Obi spokesperson Yunusa Tanko accused INEC of violating the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal ruling which allows Obi and his party to inspect the materials used to conduct the election. This action could spark wider controversy over the election process.
Meanwhile, peaceful protests have been ongoing in Abuja, and experts fear a prolonged contestation of the election could cause protests to spread and turn them violent. With violence and insecurity seemingly ever-present in Nigeria and the economic recession ongoing, the country can ill afford further protests and is ill-prepared for a rerun of the national election. It is important to note that although the opposition parties will be challenging the election results, no presidential election in Nigeria has ever been overturned.
The APC, and president-elect Tinubu, have stood by the results and have urged the opposition parties to accept defeat. Yetstill, Tinubu is preparing for legal challenges to his mandate, and has sought an order from the Court of Appeal to access the materials used in the election. He claims these documents will help his defence against claims seeking to nullify the election results.
Despite high enthusiasm for this election and a record number of newly registered voters, the Washington Post reports only 27% of eligible voters cast ballots on Saturday. Turnout was the lowest ever for a presidential election with only 24.9 million of a possible 87 million eligible voters going to the polls. This is likely due to the ongoing cash and fuel crisis, which has limited mobility around the country. This in combination with the normal insecurity and violence around elections may have kept potential voters home, but it does mean much of the nation has not actually voiced their opinion on who should be running the country. With a large proportion of the populace showing support for Labour Party candidate Peter Obi.
Nigeria continues to find itself in an unstable political situation. Amid violence and insecurity, cash shortages and gas shortages, the nation must continue to fight its way out of a recession and find a way to employ its vast young population. For now, Bola Tinubu has the mandate to try and rectify the situation. Idayat Hassan, director of the Centre for Democracy and Development, stated in a recent interview with DW News, that Tinubu’s first order of business must be to make decisions and unite the country under an inclusive government - regardless of ethnicity, gender or religion. Hassan said Nigerians expect action to be taken to address the insecurity epidemic, poverty and unemployment. Anything short of this will breed discontent.
Experts and investors will watch the challenge of the election results closely. Africa’s most populous nation is a bellwether for the continent. Many will be waiting to see if Nigeria can buck current trends and find its way out of recession, or if it will fall prey to further political corruption or governmental collapses like Burkina Faso and Mali have in recent times. If the election results stand, Bola Tinubu will face the monumental task, of course, correcting the Nigerian economy and uniting its people.