Military coup casts uncertainty in Sudan
On 25 October 2021 Sudan precipitated into a new wave of political and social unrest, as the military first dissolved the country’s government and then declared a state of emergency. These recent developments abruptly crushed Sudan’s power-sharing experiment between military and civilian leaders. Established in August 2019, this consociational agreement envisaged the creation of a joint committee known as the Sovereign Council, allowing both sides to rule Sudan together.
Monday’s military takeover took place in the wider context of growing mistrust between military and civilian leaders, headed by Sudan’s Prime Minister Abdallah Hamdok. These tensions quickly escalated because of military leaders’ fear of losing control over the joint Sovereign Council, following Hamdok’s request for a full transition to civilian rule by 17 November 2021. As a result, on Monday 25 October the Head of the Sovereign Council General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan dissolved the cabinet and the Sovereign Council and declared a state of emergency. Prime Minister Hamdok was then arrested along with other ministers, TV and radio headquarters were taken over by the military, and internet access was restricted. As a result, thousands of protesters took the streets of Khartoum on Monday to voice their opposition against the coup.
The international community expressed widespread concern over recent developments in Sudan. UN Secretary General António Guterres denounced the “forceful military takeover of power in Sudan”, called for the release of detained officials and stressed the importance of civilian-military partnership. The European Union strongly condemned the coup, while the Arab League and the Biden Administration have expressed deep concern. The United States had recently removed Sudan from its state sponsors of terror list, holding high hopes for Sudan’s transition to democracy. However, last Monday’s developments led the White House to pause $700 million in emergency assistance to Sudan, aimed at supporting the country’s democratic transition.
With violence quickly escalating, the Central Committee of Sudanese Doctors confirmed two casualties during Monday protests, while over 70 people were injured. The implications of this coup could have strong resonance both domestically and regionally. Domestically, this coup further weakens Sudan’s economic system which is already plagued by crippling inflation as well as shortages of food, fuel and medicine. By the same token, the Sudan crisis could have sweeping regional implications, resuming hostilities between Sudan, Egypt, and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Last but not least, Sudan’s coup could fuel a worrying spill over effect, sowing further instability in the country’s neighbouring areas. Crucially, Sudan’s coup could negatively impact the ongoing Ethiopian crisis in the Tigray region, which since November 2020 has claimed the lives of thousands of people and has determined a massive influx of refugees into eastern Sudan. More generally, Sudan is politically crucial to ensure stability in the Horn of Africa, North Africa and the Sahel, which is witnessing a significant growth in Islamist militancy.