The role of regional divides in Nigerian elections

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa. Because of its large population and economy, it is sometimes referred to as ‘The African Giant’. Having the largest economy and population in Africa, Nigerian elections hold a paramount significance in African geopolitics. But these elections are dependent on very diverse factors. Nigeria has a very prominent division on the basis of language, ethnicity, region, and religion. Among these, tribal and regional divisions have played a very significant role in Nigerian elections, and are supposedly going to have a substantial impact on 2023 presidential elections as well, whose election campaign started on 28th September. 

The North-South dichotomy in Nigeria has historical roots and has proved to be an important determinant in Nigerian presidential elections, especially in the 2011 presidential elections. To bridge this gap between the North and South, the governors of Nigeria’s 36 states started an unofficial convention, also called the ‘politics of zoning’ in which the  presidency of Nigeria is rotated between northern and southern state leaders. This process of zoning was disrupted by Umaru Musa Yar’Adua’s death in office in 2010 and Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat in 2015. The division resurfaced in the Nigerian political landscape in September 2021 when the governors clashed over this unofficial convention of presidential rotation between northerners and southerners. The southern state leaders insisted on fielding incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor whilst the northern state leaders sought to be not excluded from the 2023 presidential race.

Nigeria has six geopolitical zones: three in the north and three in the south. The northwest zone has seven states, and the northeast and north-central zones have six each. The southwest and south-south zones both have six states, and southeast have five. The zoning factor seems to be favouring the southeast whose zoning supporters argue that they have been marginalised at top levels of government. Ironically, no candidate from the southeast has won the presidential nominations of any major political party.

The politics of zoning played a crucial role in the Nigerian presidential elections. There are reportedly 371 different tribes in Nigeria, the majority of which are the Igbo, Hausa, and the Yoruba which make up about 60% of the country’s population and ethnic nationalities, hence, are a deciding factor in the country’s presidential elections. Among these tribal groups, Hausa is the largest ethnic group comprising approximately 25% of the population followed by Yoruba and Igbo forming approximately 21% and 18% of the population, respectively. Besides the tribal division, the North-South dichotomy also involves the division on the basis of religion with predominantly Muslim North and Christian South. Leading candidates Presidential candidates Peter Obi of Labour Party and Bola Ahmed Tinubu of APC belong from southern states while Atiku Abubakar of PDP hails from the north. 

The voting behaviours of the 2015 presidential elections of Nigeria clearly indicated that both then running candidates Muhammadu Buhari and Goodluck Jonathan received a majority of their votes from their ethnic basis. The incumbent northerner Buhari then received approximately 79% of total secured votes from the north while Jonathan southerner received approximately 88% of total secured votes from the south. So, how much would the North-Zone division based on zoning affect the presidential elections of Nigeria in 2023 would be interesting to follow.