First Pledged Ceasefire Begins
Current Figures
At least 850 killed and 3,394 wounded
IOM: 843,130 IDPs
UNHCR: Over 250,185 refugees & returnees have fled
Egypt: 113,190 (Sudanese refugees: 107,826, Other refugees: 5,364)
South Sudan: 63,496 (Sudanese refugees: 1,469, Other refugees: 2,318, Refugee returnees: 59,709)
Chad: 60,000 (Sudanese refugees: 60,000)
CAR: 9,730 (Sudanese refugees: 6,333, Refugee returnees: 3,397)
Ethiopia: 3,769 (Sudanese refugees: 315, Other refugees: 3,411, Refugee returnees: 43)
Army & Paramilitary Agree to Ceasefire
The Sudanese army and Rapid Support Forces have signed an agreement to a weeklong ceasefire that will begin this evening. This is the first official pledge agreed to by both parties that will have an internationally supported monitoring mechanism led by the US and Saudi Arabia, comprising three representatives each from the US, Saudi Arabia, and the warring parties. The agreement reached in Jeddah states, “Both parties have conveyed to the Saudi and U.S. facilitators their commitment not to seek military advantage during the 48-hour notification period after signing the agreement and prior to the start of the cease-fire."
The RSF released the following statement: "We affirm our full commitment to the cease-fire... to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid, open passages for civilians and provide everything that would alleviate the suffering of our people."
Rape in Sudan
Besides Khartoum, the main location for severe clashes have been occurring in Darfur. Activists have reported that there have been at least 24 cases of rape in Darfur, including some gang rapes. Survivors have stated that the perpetrators wore uniforms similar to those worn by the RSF and that some are RSF fighters who have gone AWOL. The rapes have occurred in those aged 14 to 56, with the 14-year-old significantly hurt. Eighteen of the 24 victims were treated and are receiving psychological support. "The remaining cases refused to comply with examination and receive treatment in addition to psychological support," according to the Darfuri activists.
The RSF is also being blamed for rape cases occuring in Khartoum. This is unfortunately no surprise as the Janjaweed have been known for their use of rape as a weapon under Hemedti’s leadership in the past. Thus far, 30 cases of rape have been report in South Khartoum, with at least one perpetrated by a SAF soldier. As acknowledged by organisations, these numbers are grossly underreported. A gynecologist working in Sudan reported that medical networks are receiving “messages about rape incidents and requests for emergency contraceptives.” One report received was of a girl seeking assistance for two daughters that were raped in front of their mother.
Refugee and displaced women are even more vulnerable to being raped in Sudan and are likely at risk in refugee camps across borders. Women who are still trapped in Sudan often take to the streets to search for food and supplies but are now afraid to leave home as they risk being raped. A woman in Khartoum stated, “As a woman, it is scary to go out as I fear being caught in the crossfire, harassed, assaulted, or even raped.” Men have started forming groups in order to patrol and keep communities safe. However, it adds a risk to women as they are “being left alone in their houses with their children and expected to get food, water and commodities.” Additionally, as services and stores are looted or destroyed, women are forced to explore areas that are not well known to them, increasing their risk. The vulnerability of women in Sudan is even greater when considering that over 20,000 prisoners were released into a conflict where security does not exist in either territory.
Looking Forward
Several ceasefires have been ignored by both parties since the conflict began over a month ago. The parameters of how the Monitoring and Coordination Committee will function or what, if any, repercussions will occur if either or both parties continue battling is unknown. It is also questionable if Burhan and Hemedti either have the ability or motivation to command their forces to adhere to a ceasefire on the ground.
So far, heavy fighting has continued in Khartoum since the signing of the agreement. The army continues its defences to keep control of the Wadi Saeedna airport as the RSF advances towards the airbase. “RSF fighters in about 20 trucks are positioned east of the Nile, and are trying to cross a bridge to reach the Wadi Saeedna airfield.” The SAF are retaliating with heavy missiles as the deadline for the ceasefire approaches. The loss of the airbase would be detrimental to the strategy of the SAF as it used to bombard from the air in order to regain RSF-controlled areas.
Over 1 million people have fled or are displaced in Sudan. Civilians have shown what little faith they have in any adherence to the ceasefire as buses continue evacuating to areas outside of Khartoum. What is more curious to ponder is not whether the ceasefire will hold, but what steps may the US or Saudi Arabia take next. At what point will President Biden follow through on his threats of sanctions and will those have any impact on Burhan and Hemedti? Should the fighting continue at this rate, how will key actors impacted by the conflict influence the warring parties? How will the role of Wagner, Egypt or the UAE change? The signage of the agreement brings more questions than answers as it is incredibly unlikely it will hold when the conflict is driven by two leaders who are hard bent on attaining victory. While Burhan and Hemedti continue battling each other across Sudan, more people flee, more women are raped, and more die. Let us hope that the first pledged ceasefire will also be the first to hold.