Wagner News Update (24-30 July)

By: Marina Tovar

Summary 

Prigozhin’s recent appearance in the Russia-Africa Summit outlines the Kremlin-Wagner interconnectedness. Putin's decision to continue collaborating with Wagner is rational, as pursuing the Kremlin's interest in Africa outweighs Putin's potential decrease in credibility. 

Developments in Russia - Wagner - Belarus 

• A young Wagner fighter participating in the June 23’s attempted coup states “he and his fellow fighters did not have a clue of what was going on”. In this line but on another note, a former Russian colonel said Russian President Putin “just hid” during the attempted coup. For more information on Prigozhin and Putin’s support, can be found here

• Prigozhin has applauded the coup d’état in Niger, blaming the change of government on the “legacy of colonialism” and the role of Western countries in sponsoring terrorism in the country. He also pitched Wagner’s services to Niger, claiming to help establish order and destroy terrorists.

• Wagner fighters stationed in Russia are requested to “go back home” after getting drunk and loitering at train stations. Wagner fighters who are not receiving training reportedly “need to go home” on leave, but many have not made it. 

• Since July 19, military equipment and vehicles believed to belong to the Wagner group continue to move to a camp in the village of Tsel, Eastern Belarus, where the troops have settled after the attempted coup.

• Last week, a video circulated where Prigozhin allegedly was in Belarus welcoming his troops. On Friday this week, Wagner’s leader was photographed in St Petersburg during the Africa-Russia summit. The image was posted on Facebook by Dmitri Syty, who reportedly manages Wagner’s operations in the Central African Republic. 

International Reactions

• Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia say Belarus-EU borders may be closed if Wagner group serious incidents happen. This comes after Polish PM Morawiecki’s concerns of Wagner fighters around the area from Grodno, a city in Western Belarus close to Poland, known as the Suwalki gap or corridor.

• Tensions have grown along Ukraine’s northern border about the potential for new military attacks since Prigozhin’s relocation of troops to Belarus.

• CIA Director Bill Burns states that Prigozhin was likely improvising during the attempted coup. Further analysis can be found here.

Scenarios/Lines of Analysis

In line with Director Burn’s words, Prigozhin’s improvisation would likely explain the gaps in the direction Wagner fighters took during the 23 June attempted coup. Coupled with the young Wagner fighter’s declarations, this scenario is very likely as Prigozhin was not fully aware of the possible reactions or scenarios once he took Rostov-on-Don or headed to St. Petersburg. The scenario’s likelihood is high because the courses of action could vary depending on the military and Kremlin’s reactions. Therefore, Prigozhin acted with a degree of improvisation due to the unknowns on the military’s reactions and the support the group would have in the attempted coup. 

Prigozhin's unknown whereabouts and recent appearance at the Russia-Africa Summit reinforce the interconnectedness between the Kremlin and Wagner. Prigozhin's appearance very likely illustrates Wagner's operations' importance in Africa and the Kremlin's need for Wagner to pursue their geopolitical interests in Africa, including competition with the West in security cooperation, mining, and energy. Furthermore, Prigozhin's lack of criminal charges and political consequences after the attempted coup, coupled with Friday's appearance, illustrates the Kremlin's need to collaborate with Wagner. At the expense of Putin's credibility and alleged decline of popular support because of Prigozhin's lack of criminal prosecution, Putin's decision to continue collaborating with Wagner is rational, as pursuing the Kremlin's interest in Africa outweighs Putin's credibility.