Wagner News Update
By: Ridipt Singh
Summary
After the mediation Belarusian President Lukashenko and Russian President Putin had over Yevgeny Prigozhin's situation and Wagner troops, Wagner troops entered Belarus and started training. Prigozhin, after entering Belarus, addressed his troops regarding the PMC's plans for Belarus and Africa. Wagner's presence has raised security concerns among NATO members due to Belarusian special forces undergoing training near the Polish border. Putin's comments on defending Belarus further amplify the concerns, hints at invading the Suwalki Corridor and President Lukashenko's most recent meeting with Putin on 23 July. Such comments also lead to further speculations regarding the use of Wagner troops to extend the Russian invasion further into Eastern Europe, a very unlikely scenario practically speaking. However, Putin's remarks may signal to the world that he still exercises influence over Wagner and that the so-called mutiny has not changed the political dynamics between Prigozhin and Putin.
Developments in Russia - Wagner - Belarus
The Belarusian government has stated that Wagner mercenaries are ‘sharing their combat experiences with its armed forces’.
Voen TV, the state-controlled media house has covered video footage of Belarusian conscripts undergoing tactical combat and equipment training in a training camp in Osipovichi (56 miles/90 km south of Minsk). The media video shows instructors in black masks (covering faces has been consistent with Wagner mercenaries), said to be Wagner mercenaries.
Unverified sources cited by Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance claimed 240 fighters with 40 trucks equipped with heavy amounts of weaponry were present in the region. In this regard, the Belarusian defense ministry mentioned a “road-map” to manage joint exercises between its forces and the Wagner Group.
In a newly surfaced video, Prigozhin addresses Wagner fighters in a camp in Belarus. The video is said to be captured on 18 July and posted on 19 July. Prigozhin mentions that Wagner fighters will not be participating in Ukraine for the time being but may return when it is ensured that they will not be “forced to shame themselves ”. He further stated to remain in Belarus for now and start a new journey in Africa.
It is reported that Wagner fighter Sergey, callsign “Pioneer” will take over command of Wagner forces in Belarus. An unidentified man is reported to have thanked the forces for their work. It is speculated that this man could be Dmitry Utkin, callsign “Wagner” who, alongside Prigozhin, is the founder of Wagner Group
Satellite images appear to show the location of the Wagner troop and the route they took to arrive at the Tsel military base, Osipovichy. Belarusian traffic police escorted the column of Wagner troops arriving. The government has also set up a camp with a holding capacity of 15,000 personnel.
Further, the Belarusian defense ministry stated that its special forces are undergoing training with armored vehicles and drones, 3 miles/5 km east of the Polish border. Polish civilians living alongside the border stated guns firing and helicopters could be heard. Earlier in July, 500 police personnel were deployed to the border to ensure security.
These special forces units are being trained at the Brest Training Ground in Brest, Belarus. The training includes tactical maneuvers, movement under fire, camouflage, and modern combined arms tactics like use of drones for reconnaissance.
Earlier on 17 July, Russia had threatened to use Wagner troops stationed at Belarus to invade the Suwalki Corridor or Suwalki Gap, a 60 mile/96 km strip of land at the Polish-Lithuanian border. This corridor holds massive strategic significance for NATO, EU and Russia, often dubbed “NATO’s weakest link” or “the most dangerous place on Earth” that could trigger World War III.
Senior officials from the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and Department of State clarified that it is highly unlikely that Russia will use any tactical nuclear weapons and therefore do not need to rethink its nuclear posture. This clarification was made in response to an earlier statement made by President Lukashenko on 27 June that Belarus had acquired an unspecified number of nuclear weapons from Russia.
On 22 July Putin publicly stated that any form of aggression towards Belarus would be considered an aggression towards Russia claiming that Poland has territorial ambitions in Russia. Poland denied the claim of territorial ambitions. Russian politician Andrey Kartapolov had already speculated whether Putin’s actual intentions behind allowing Wagner to move to Belarus is to prepare for an attack on Poland or possibly the Suwalki Corridor.
On 23 July, President Lukashenko, during a meeting with President Putin, mentioned that Wagner fighters are stressing on invading Poland, stating that they “want to go West” into Poland.
International Reactions
The Polish government responded by deploying 1000 strong troops and 200 equipment from its 12th and 17th Mechanized Brigades towards the east of the country. Their defense ministry stated that their borders remain secure.
The British government announced it would freeze assets and issue a travel ban of individuals linked with Wagner activities in Africa, including sanctions on 13 individuals and businesses in the Central African Republic, Mali and Sudan. These sanctions also target the leaders of the Wagner Group. Among the sanctioned are Ivan Maslov, head of the Wagner Group in Mali, Alexander Maloletko (allegedly a close associate of Prigozhin) and Mikhail Potepkin (director of mining company Meroe Gold).
Within NATO, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg reassured allies reiterating that it is prepared to defend “every inch of NATO territory”. He stated that increased military presence in the Eastern part of the alliance was deployed. Despite reassurances, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda cautioned against Wagner’s presence in Belarus, stating it to be a “greater danger of instability”. In this regard, Germany stated to be prepared for a permanent deployment of 4000 troops in Lithuania.
In the US, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also remarked that Wagner mercenaries are not fighting in Ukraine. Furthermore, CIA Director William Burns at Aspen Security Forum, Colorado has stated that the Wagner ‘mutiny’ exposed the fault lines in the authoritarian regime. This has damaged Putin’s public persona and that he will likely seek revenge from Prigozhin. UK Foreign Secretary James Cleverly had earlier made remarks similar to Director Burns that Prigozhin’s actions revealed “cracks” in Putin’s regime.
Scenarios/Lines of Analysis
In this video published on Telegram, Evgeny Prigozhin welcomes the Wagner soldiers in Belarus and explains that they “will stay here in Belarus for some time. During this time, we will make them, and I am sure of it, the second army in the world” before announcing their next goal as raising their level and going to Africa.
Wagner has far been effective in securing a Russian foothold in Africa amidst a regional strategic competition. In this regard, neither Putin nor Prigozhin would want to adopt a hostile attitude towards one another, given Wagner’s significance in Africa and Prigozhin’s need to secure funding for its fighters. It should also be noted that Wagner troops are returning to the Central African Republic (CAR) just before its referendum scheduled on July 30.
Despite the display of overt dissent, Prigozhin has maintained that Wagner fighters might return to Ukraine under conditions that they find suitable. Furthermore, the mercenaries currently in Belarus are favorable to Putin. It has been constantly speculated that Putin might use Wagner's presence in Belarus to advance its motives further. In the previous year, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, upon the invasion of Ukraine, had stated that the invasion is likely to extend further into Eastern Europe.
The sudden comments from Putin regarding Belarus suggest that through these remarks Putin is trying to signal that he still exerts control over the Wagner Group in an attempt to damage or control his reputation.