Growing Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso is one of many countries in the Sahel region struggling with food insecurity. The nation is facing the 5th worst hunger crisis in the world and one of the fastest advancing displacement crises. Violence and climate conditions disrupt the already compromised food supply in the country, preventing Burkinabes, over 40% of whom live below the poverty line, from meeting nutritional needs. The expansion of violent conflicts and food insecurity threaten the livelihoods of millions, both at a national and regional level.
Violent Conflicts
Non-state armed groups are spreading throughout Burkina Faso, creating conflict that has so far displaced around 2 million people. For the past seven years, violence has contributed to food insecurity, threatening approximately 3.3 million people. An Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadist group known as Jama'at Nasr al-Islam al Muslimin (JMIN), has gained control of about 40% of the country’s territory, terrorising civilians persistently. On 18 May, 25 people were killed and many more were injured in raids in the north of Yatenga province. This follows a recent terror attack in which presumed jihadists killed 20 civilians near the border of Togo and Ghana. Civilians under occupation are faced with physical intimidation, abuse, and murder. Yet, the effect these groups have on the food supply has the most widespread consequences in the country.
Violent conflicts between armed groups and military forces damage infrastructure, making the production and transport of agricultural goods nearly impossible. These damages are not only unintended consequences of confrontations, as these groups purposefully target agricultural production, set up roadblocks, and damage infrastructure to reduce food availability. An estimated 86% of the population is dependent on agriculture as a form of subsistence, causing the disruption of agricultural processes to severely impact food security through shortages and decreases in income. In February of 2022, JNIM affiliated groups took control of the town of Djibo and set up major roadblocks throughout the northern region of the country. JMIN affiliated groups targeted the water infrastructure around the town, severely impacting the water supply in various areas. People in Djibo have been facing food shortages and rising prices for almost a year. Humanitarian organisations have been unable to reach the town and other affected areas in the northern regions of the country due to blockades and damaged roads. These organisations are relying on unconventional methods of transport, such as costly airlifts, to deliver food and medical aid to affected people.
On 1 June, military forces killed 50 Al-Qaeda affiliated jihadists. Military retaliation has contributed to the violence suffered by civilians. Human Rights Watch has reported abuses against civilians during counterterrorism missions, an issue that could erode trust in the government and delegitimise their efforts. The expansion of military forces also affects international relations. The United States has frozen $160 million in aid as a response to the military coup that occurred in January. As democratic processes are halted - ostensibly as a result of ongoing conflict - relations with countries and organisations could deteriorate, resulting in dwindling external support. The loss of international support, both financially and diplomatically, could significantly impair the Burkinabe government’s efforts to reduce food insecurity.
The government's response to insecurity, particularly in confrontations with armed groups, could also exacerbate the issue of food insecurity in Burkina Faso. In lieu of negotiations, the government has opted for a strong military response, which can instigate retaliatory attacks and incentivize a cycle of violence that perpetuates instability and undermines the agricultural sector. Diplomatic efforts to negotiate peace with armed groups have yet to see any success. If the government succeeds in its attempts to regain control of the country - which we assess is markedly unlikely in the short to medium term - violent conflicts would de-escalate, but a large military presence would still result in tensions and mistrust in affected regions. In the event that armed groups continue advancing and overwhelm the military force - which is neither likely, but more plausible than the first scenario - insecurity, both physical and nutritional, will increase. In any case, failure to de-escalate the conflict and restore security in Burkina Faso will exacerbate food insecurity.
Climate Conditions
Farmers are struggling with erratic climate conditions in Burkina Faso. Repeated droughts are affecting low-tolerance crops, leading to low yields that cause food shortages. The agricultural sector relies on rainfed crops for most of its production, causing concern for food supplies during long periods of little rainfall. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued warnings regarding the increase in drought frequency as a consequence of climate change. Burkina Faso’s poor soil quality and climate patterns preclude the production of various crops; farmers are unable to consistently produce rice and other grains, causing most of the country to rely on imports to meet local demand. This creates a dependency on imports that drives uncertainty around prices and food availability.
In May, India temporarily lifted its ban on broken rice exports, helping to drive down import prices for Burkina Faso and providing a much-needed influx of food. Prices may soon rise again as the ban on rice is likely to be reinstated. Further disruptions to the food supply could be caused by food shortages in neighbouring countries and main trading partners, causing Burkina Faso’s import costs to rise. Administrative issues further limit the agricultural sector's ability to flourish. Strict regulations around seeds and fertilisers prevent many farmers from maximising their crop yield. These regulations help protect an already arid and shallow soil that is vulnerable to deterioration, but they limit yearly production and contribute to the food shortages that ravage the country.
Future climate conditions do not instil hope in farmers. A report by the Red Cross predicted that Burkina Faso would see heightened climate change effects in the future. Rainfall is set to decrease in upcoming years, with some estimates showing a 10% decrease in precipitation by 2100. Burkina Faso is also set to experience a substantially higher temperature increase than average, with a 3-4 degree increase expected by 2080-2099, causing drier seasons and hindering crop yields. The shift in soil caused by the loss in rainfall and higher temperatures could also make soil more susceptible to erosion, severely impacting production capacity. As long as current farming practices are maintained and the country continues to depend on imports and rainfed crops, climate change will likely continue to destabilise the food supply and contribute to hunger.
Future Prospects
Countries in the Sahel region are undergoing similar food insecurity crises due to the arid and varying climate. The lack of external and humanitarian aid could also affect the situation. The United Nations has struggled to raise half of the $800 million required to aid Burkina Faso, meaning it is unlikely international organisations will be able to provide sufficient aid to other countries in the region. The UN response plan created for the crises in Burkina Faso and neighbouring nations has obtained just 16% of the $4.6 billion required. If armed groups expand their control and continue to occupy more territory, the strain placed on international aid organisations would likely cause various regions to be neglected.
The Burkinabe government is attempting to promote agricultural growth to combat food insecurity with an approved $36 million plan to cultivate 11,000 hectares (1 hectare = 10,000 sq metres) of farmland. This plan focuses on rice cultivation, an investment that seeks to reduce the country's over-reliance on imports. This plan would not, however, shift the country away from dependence on rainfall and consistent climate conditions. Several projects have created climate-smart villages that use varying practices to adapt to climate change. Climate change activist organisations seek to foster productivity growth and sustainability in farms in Burkina Faso, creating various production opportunities while taking climate variability into account. The development of sustainable farming practices and the proliferation of technology in Burkina Faso’s arid conditions could help mitigate food insecurity in various other countries. Advancements in production could create export opportunities, providing a supply of agricultural goods for countries in the region suffering from food insecurity. This could also incentivise other countries to adopt similar practices, providing grounds for advancements in agriculture that could benefit the whole region. The benefits of these projects are still not seen on a large enough scale to aid the insecurity crisis.
In order to foster agricultural production, Burkina Faso must invest in rebuilding its agricultural infrastructure by developing irrigation systems, promoting sustainable farming techniques, and providing farmers with access to modern tools and technology to counteract the effects of climate change. In order to succeed in these initiatives, farmers must have safe working conditions, and there must be uninterrupted internal supply chains throughout the country. The latter is particularly unlikely in regions affected by violent conflict. The displacement of farmers, destruction of crops and livestock, and lack of access to markets, both for the purchase of supplies and the sale of products, render these initiatives useless. In order for these efforts to succeed, Burkina Faso must prioritise peacebuilding efforts in order to establish a stable and secure environment for agricultural and infrastructural development. These efforts would require transparency in governance, international support, and a significant increase in funding.