Scholz’s Visit to East Africa

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in East Africa on 4 May for a trip split between Ethiopia and Kenya, two of the region’s most influential actors, to discuss future environmental and political cooperation. The chancellor described the visit as preparation for a “multi-polar world.” Scholz’s recognition of the world’s increasingly complex international order has motivated a growing number of nations to develop relations with East African countries that are expected to grow in political and economic significance in the long-term. Germany’s decision to increase cooperation with East Africa follows a trend of major international actors dedicating infrastructure investment to a growing region facing economic headwinds. 

On the first leg of Scholz’s visit, in Ethiopia, he supported calls for the African Union to be represented at the G20. Germany has joined a growing list of G20 nations including China, France, and the United States, in advocating for more African representation in the G20. Only one African nation, South Africa, is currently a member. Representation in international organisations would act as a significant step towards fulfilling a “partnership of equals,” something much of the continent has been pleading for. Scholz recognised that a seat at the table allows for a “louder African voice” in the world, which may elevate African concerns on issues that may otherwise be ignored. 

During the second leg of Scholz’s visit, in Kenya, he pledged to provide $215 million to expand the Olkaria geothermal power plant in Nakuru. This investment into Kenya’s power grid provides a boost to Kenya’s ambitions of constructing a reliable and renewable electricity grid. Kenyan President William Ruto aims for the country to become fossil fuel free by 2030 - the country already satisfies 90 per cent of its energy needs via renewable sources. The transition to renewable energy has occurred fastest in Africa where levels of fossil fuel dependency are lower. Yet, advancements in renewable energy on the continent have not significantly negated Africa’s energy vulnerability during international crises. Approximately 43 per cent of Africa’s population remains without electricity. The lack of energy security which persists within the region remains a limitation to economic growth (For more detail on this topic check out our African Energy Crisis Report). 

At COP27 in November 2022, President Ruto advocated for ‘loss and damage’ relief funds, an initiative to mitigate the consequences of climate change for nations who are exposed to its worst consequences. Loss and damage funds proved a difficult topic of negotiation at COP27, exposing African frustration with the international system. Ruto held that delays in establishing the funds were “cruel and unjust” while former Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari had written to COP27 asserting; “don’t tell Africans they can't use their own resources.” Africa in total produces six per cent of global fossil fuels yet it faces disproportionately large climatic events. Berlin announced they would support the loss and damage scheme, with a contribution of $185 million. Scholz’s recent visit to Kenya, enhancing green technology cooperation with Ruto, embodied the “rise to the challenge” which Ruto petitioned for at COP27. Scholz’s support for environmental initiatives in Africa underlines Germany’s commitment to environmental action on the continent.

Scholz’s visit to the continent was his second in only 17 months in office. On the first visit in May 2022, he toured Senegal, Niger, and South Africa, focusing on private investment into sustainable energy production and the war in Ukraine. Scholz’s first visit to Africa was significant in timing. Both before and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, NATO member states have criticised Germany for failing to uphold NATO’s defence spending commitment and for hesitating to ship arms to Ukraine. Scholz’s widening of Germany’s diplomatic reach to include African nations furthers their commitment to multilateralism amid the Ukraine war, which has strained western relations with Africa.

While bilateral agreements have produced positive outcomes for African nations with German cooperation, Ruto’s frustration with the international system during COP27 has driven calls for the creation of a New Energy Pact at the African Climate Action Summit for September 2023 in Nairobi. Ruto’s claim that Africans were being “mistreated” during international conferences by non-African nations has inspired a pan-African response, where African problems are resolved by African solutions. The agenda of September’s Climate Action Summit includes: Energy systems, infrastructure, environment, and human development – important concerns in the midst of a cost of living crisis which has sparked demonstrations continent-wide. Ahead of COP28 in Dubai, Ruto’s focus on the African summit highlights the shift toward intra-African multilateralism, which may result in more constructive conversations between nations who understand Africa’s unique environmental challenges.

Ethiopia and Kenya are important nations in African affairs. The headquarters of the African Union is based in Addis Ababa and the regional office of the United Nations is based in Nairobi. This heightens the diplomatic status of both nations and has resulted in closer scrutiny of their economic management, which has drawn concern from Berlin. Loans used for infrastructure development have deepend concerns over the future economic stability of the region. Kenya, despite being at high risk of debt distress, has recently stabilised their debt load by maintaining resilient growth rates and cutting the budget deficit. According to IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva, Kenya is “definitely” not among sub-Saharan nations at an increasing risk of default. Though both nations were negatively affected by Covid-19, drought, and the Ukraine War, Ethiopia has faced additional economic pressure due to the two-year civil conflict in Northern Tigray. Coupled with the IMF projection that Ethiopia and Kenya will become the third and fourth largest sub-Saharan economies on the continent, capitalising on their increased productivity is of growing importance to foreign governments and multinational firms.

Despite Kenya and Ethiopia’s current growth challenges, it is likely that their governments will position themselves as crucial actors in the fight against climate change. Africa holds 40 per cent of the world’s total cobalt, manganese, and platinum, minerals essential for green technology. Utilising the continent’s material wealth allows its population to develop domestic industry and improve energy security. Insecure and inefficient access to energy has frustrated the development of key industries in Africa, increasing dependence on imports. Sub-Saharan Africa currently spends 26 per cent of GDP on the imports of goods and services. A regional focus on improving energy security would involve improved regulation, which left unresolved, may negate Africa’s material advantage. 

Scholz and Ruto’s common interest in the advancement of green technologies depends on levels of energy efficiency. Introducing building codes and efficiency standards which limit the use of inefficient appliances would contribute to a roughly 30 per cent fall in energy demand by 2030. Reducing total energy demand through improved efficiency would reduce energy imports and household expenditures, allowing more funds to be injected into home-grown infrastructure projects. Ruto’s ambition of making Africa the “clean, green factory of the world” centres on regional infrastructure projects which Germany has already invested in. With the African agenda increasingly focused on climate change, domestic technology development may allow Africa’s export volume to grow, relieving wider European and Asian dependency on Russian energy amid the war in Ukraine.