The Expansion of the ADF in East Africa
On 16 June, eight people were kidnapped and 41 were killed in an attack on a school in Mpondwe, a small village in Western Uganda located in a mountainous region that borders the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces (UPDF) attributed the responsibility for the attack to the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), an Islamist rebel group active in the eastern provinces of DRC since the late 1990s. The group initially operated in Uganda, as it emerged as a force against President Museveni, but was then pushed into DRC after Ugandan forces conducted military operations against it. The attack occurred late at night, when around 20 attackers set fire to school dormitories and assaulted students, all between the ages of 13 and 18, with machetes and firearms. According to the UPDF, the attackers fled into the DRC towards the Virunga National Park. On 20 June, the UPDF announced that they rescued three of the kidnapped. Two ADF rebels were killed during the resulting firefight.
The day prior to the rescue, 20 people were arrested by the Ugandan security forces for cooperating with the ADF in planning the attack. In the aftermath of the attack, the commander of the UPDF announced that the assailants' efforts were supported by local residents, who showed them around the village before the massacre. A witness declared that they heard one of the attackers shout “Allahu Akbar” and “we have succeeded in destabilising Museveni's country."
The education minister and first lady Janet Museveni commented on the attack, suggesting that there was a conflict between residents in Kasese, the district where Mpondwe is located, and the Partnerships for Opportunity Development Association (PODA), a Canadian NGO. The NGO built the school and currently retains control over its administration - part of the local population wants to administer the school themselves, which had led to increasing tensions before the attack. According to Janet Museveni, auditors from the PODA inspected the structure the day before the attack. It remains unclear whether these tensions played a role in the school massacre.
ADF militants are not novices at targeting children. The ADF targets schools for recruitment and propaganda purposes. In most cases, attacks on schools and facilities that host children result in kidnappings. This allows the ADF to sustain its recruiting effort through the forceful assimilation of young people in its ranks. The use of children is advantageous to the group in several ways. Kids are considered more manipulable and therefore more obedient, but more importantly, they have less monetary and social ambition than adult fighters. This makes them a mostly-inexpensive and easily expendable force in an insurgent campaign.
This was not the case in the Mpondwe school massacre, suggesting the group is more concerned with large-scale attacks that draw publicity. Children are regarded as the most vulnerable component of every society; thus, attacks in which many are killed have a strong media impact. These incidents make government authorities appear incapable of protecting vulnerable populations. As a result, this fuels ADF propaganda, portraying state institutions as inept and corrupt, which further stirs resentment among the population towards these institutions.
The United States and the UN sanctioned the ADF in 2014 for terrorist activities, including the targeting of minors. The group was condemned by the US Department of Treasury "for targeting children in situations of armed conflict, including through killing, rape, abduction and forced displacement." The Ugandan army leadership said the attack aimed to divert the focus of the Ugandan forces from the fight against the ADF in the DRC, where the UPDF are operating following an agreement with Kinshasa to counter the group’s activities. The attackers, who reportedly crossed the border into Uganda two days before the attack, were allegedly initially planning on targeting a military installation. It is still unclear what led them to change their target if this was the case.
Although the circumstances of the attack are still under investigation, especially relating to the possible local support that the attackers received, this event is indicative of the ADF’s growing presence and activity in the region. After intense repression in Uganda, where the group was founded, it now operates from the forests of the Congolese North Kivu province. In 2019, the Islamic State (IS) recognised the ADF as part of its international network of affiliate groups. Since then, the group has killed more than 4,000 people and is now comprised of around 2,000 members, some of whom were recruited through kidnapping.
The attack in Mpondwe points to an increase in attack capabilities by ADF militants. In November 2021, in a set of coordinated attacks, three ADF members detonated suicide vests in the Ugandan capital of Kampala, killing four people. This event was particularly effective in highlighting the group’s ties with the central authority of IS, as the latter claimed responsibility for the attack and used the footage of it to promote its presence in the region, praising the actions of the ADF.
The financial support provided by the Islamic State is enabling the expansion of the ADF in the DRC’s eastern provinces. The funding is conveyed through a complex scheme running through Somalia and South Africa; the UN documented that IS cells in South Africa are in direct contact with ADF leadership in the DRC. In recent years, the group has relied on the organisational and logistical support offered by the Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) militia in Mozambique, which also has direct links to the Islamic State. The expansion of the ADF’s network is likely strengthening the group and enabling it to conduct higher-impact attacks.
Additionally, the group has demonstrated the ability to adapt to Operation Shuja, a joint offensive by the Ugandan and Congolese armed forces. Following an intensification of military operations in North Kivu, ADF militiamen have begun to move into the province of South Kivu (further south) and Ituri (further north) in recent months. This expansion is also part of the group's strategy to pursue territorial gains along the border between Uganda and DRC. According to a United Nations report, the group aims to conduct attacks in the capital Kinshasa and in Haut-Uele province, north of Ituri.
A trend that is becoming more entrenched, as demonstrated by the school attack in Mpondwe, is an increasing targeting of groups and structures that attract media attention. This is reflected in high casualty incidents and the targeting of locations that were not previously considered to be at a high risk of attack. This approach particularly reflects the strategy of the Islamic State, which exploits images and videos of large-scale attacks to attract more recruits. The self-representation of the ADF as a powerful, expanding group that is able to hit targets inflicting great damage, helps the group in its recruitment campaign, which is accompanied by a Salafist jihadist ideological communication campaign. The influx of foreign fighters from other countries in the region, such as Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Kenya, is exemplary of the success of the group’s recruitment efforts.
In recent years the ADF has been refining its combat tactics, especially from a technological standpoint. Since the group prefers an asymmetric approach in clashes with security forces, there has been an increased use of IEDs (Improvised Explosive Devices) and drones. The latter is used for reconnaissance purposes and for collecting footage of combat scenes, which is then employed for propaganda purposes. The drones used are commercially purchasable and are usually manufactured by the Chinese company DJI. The ADF has also perpetrated an increasing number of IED attacks frequently targeting government security forces. The ADF also uses drones to defend key access points to strongholds while initiating ambush-style attacks.
The increasing penetration of the Islamic State in East Africa and the increase in collaboration among affiliated groups represent a growing risk. The Islamic State's propaganda and recruitment platform facilitates the seamless movement of militiamen, financial resources, and know-how between countries and groups, posing significant difficulties for security forces. The lack of cooperation among the states affected constitutes a dangerous flaw in counterinsurgency capabilities in the region. Further, the presence of vast areas with limited governance functions allows groups to more easily adapt, expand, and flourish, as the ADF has done in the Eastern DRC.
The school attack in Mpondwe confirms the vulnerability of Ugandan communities located near the DRC border. Attacks in Uganda allow the ADF to strike targets in Ugandan territory and then immediately return to their strongholds in DRC. The group's recent expansion into Ituri and South Kivu increases the extent of border territories where the group is able to mobilise militiamen and conduct attacks. It is consequently likely that in the short to medium term attacks such as the one on the school will increase in number.
The ADF’s expansion is also facilitated by the security crisis in the DRC's eastern provinces, which is aggravated by the presence of a multiplicity of armed groups. The increase in violence in recent months has resulted in an increase in the flow of refugees crossing the border into Uganda. The ADF is exploiting this uncontrolled movement of people to enter and exit Uganda without being intercepted by Ugandan security forces. In addition, the inability of the two countries' security forces to counter the violence of the ADF and other armed groups is exacerbating the population's resentment towards government authorities. The ADF will likely continue to exploit this resentment on both sides of the border in order to attract recruits and facilitate movement between the two countries.