Pakistan’s Climate Carnage and COP27

In 2022, the world experienced multiple climate-change induced calamities. Whilst Europe was hit by an extraordinary heatwave, Pakistan was ravaged by disastrous floods. A study by the World Weather Attribution group reported that up to 50 per cent of the heavy rains in August, in Sindh and Balochistan, were a by-product of climate-change. According to official estimates, the floods affected nearly 33mn Pakistani people, particularly in the low-lying, arid, food-insecure Southern provinces. According to a report by the United Nations, more than 240, 000 people were still displaced in the province of Sindh and 12 districts (10 in Sindh and 2 in Balochistan) were still inundated in December 2022. While not a new phenomenon experienced by the country, the scale and destruction of the floods this year, after a heavier than usual monsoon season and melting glaciers, resulted in about a third of the country being engulfed in water, leading to a loss of more than 1700 lives. The Pakistani government deemed it to be ‘the greatest climate disaster of the century’ as the country’s infrastructure; houses, roads, bridges and rail networks were adversely impacted and official estimates suggested a whopping 30 billion USD as the cost of the damage. 

In the wake of the floods, the country experienced a health crisis, with unsanitary conditions and dengue fever wreaking havoc. According to a report by the WHO, a considerably large number of malaria and cholera cases were seen in Sindh and Balochistan months after the floods and the country is also currently experiencing a food security crisis as many have lost their crops, livestock’s, homes and means of livelihood. Pakistan contributes less than 1 per cent to global emissions, yet it is amongst the top ten countries affected by climate change. Thus, its floods have raised the plight of the climate-change vulnerable developing countries  and Pakistan has received increased international attention in the wake of the floods, with the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, telling the General Assembly that Pakistan’s ‘climate carnage was beyond imagination’, pledging to support the Government of Pakistan in with 816 million USD. 

The floods have significant security implications. The floods have exacerbated food insecurity and the combination of a steep inflation rate of more than 24% and a balance of payments crisis will likely further intensify the country’s political instability. So far, no prime minister in the country’s 75 years of independence has completed the full five years term in office and the pressures of the floods could render the current PDM government incapable of performing. The current crisis, along with the country’s lack of institutional capabilities and a prevailing conflict between the government and former Prime Minister Imran Khan could lead the country towards more authoritarianism and increased civil-military conflict, as have happened in the midst of conflicts in the past. The flood's destruction could also impact future crops, like wheat, which will force Pakistan, a wheat importer, to buy more on the international markets, something made increasingly difficult by the country’s balance of payments crisis. 

Pointing towards a potential health crisis in the wake of the floods, the WHO reported damage to 900 health facilities. The crisis could have a disproportionate impact on women and children, thereby furthering the gender inequalities in the country’s poor areas. The provinces affected by the floods already had a large number of children experiencing malnutrition and the crisis could lead to a large uptick in the number along with a rise in infant mortality. Pakistan is a major exporter of agricultural commodities like rice, sugarcane, cotton, fruits, fish and vegetables and major crops contribute around 4.9 percent of its GDP. Thus, the floods could significantly impact its agricultural exports as many crops have been destroyed. This decrease in crop production would likely give rise to more inflation, which will force the country’s central bank, the State Bank of Pakistan, to further tighten monetary policy. 

Moreover, the crisis could present a large security threat as the economic and political ramifications could lead extremist and terrorist groups to increase their activities, which have been on the rise since Afghanistan's takeover by the Taliban government. For instance, the province of Baluchistan, which is one of the most affected by the floods, has seen an increase in terrorist activities. Such security challenges could also expose the country’s nuclear assets to great risk. If the government finds itself unable to deal with the pressures of the floods, enemies both within and without, could capitalise on the situation.  

In the backdrop of the floods, the 2022 United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Egypt was attended by Prime Minister Sharif. Pakistan’s Climate Change Minister, Sherry Rehman was at the forefront of successfully negotiating a historic ‘Loss and Damage” Fund   for developing countries to be funded by the developed world. Pakistan demanded at least 16.3 billion USD for rehabilitation and reconstruction. However, Pakistan’s plight is not unique. While having a far lower share in global greenhouse gas emissions, developing countries find themselves bearing the brunt of environmental damage, with profound effects on their agricultural sectors. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimated that out of the total 2017 damages to crop and livestock in developing countries, 37 per cent were due to floods and 19 per cent could be attributed to droughts. Thereby, the COP27 was significant as climate action moved from target-setting to implementation.