China and Water: Water Scarcity
This mini-series will cover China’s complicated relationship with water. There are both major scarcities and over-abundances across the nations. The way it manages this is an insight into how the nation functions, and how its government is dealing with one of the most pressing issues of our time; climate change
The Problem
China is a country of two halves, with the so-called Heihe–Tengchong Line dividing the country into the eastern section wherein 94% of its population lives, and the inland where just 6% reside. Within the coastal areas can be found urban metropolises such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. It is these urban areas where population density is the highest and resources such as energy and water are used to the greatest extent. China currently faces a grave threat of water scarcity in these urban centres regions - particularly in its densely populated northern regions found in the provinces above the Yellow river.
Northern China usually refers to the provinces of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Inner Mongolia which can all be found above the Yellow river and approximately parallel to the Korean peninsula. It is home to the capital, Beijing. Unlike much of the south which has a subtropical climate and thus experiences both wet and dry seasons, the north is a temperate-arid region and experiences hot summers and cold winters with much more limited rainfall than in the South. This has meant the region has often been prone to drought and water scarcity in the past, however, this has been amplified by a booming population and China's expanded consumption of water which has reached new heights.
According to the World Bank, acute water scarcity (which is the lowest level of water availability) is below 500m3 per person. Beijing has on average around 150m3 per person, making it on par with some middle eastern countries in terms of water scarcity. The greater region around Beijing known as the Hai River basin contains 10% of China’s population and only 1.5% of China’s water. A 2016 study revealed that parts of Beijing are subsiding (sinking) more than 10cm a year due to excessive extraction of natural aquifers - this is a direct result of water scarcity and lack of natural replenishment of aquifers.
Data above shows per capita water resources in most water-scarce regions in China. 9/10 regions are in the north and highlighted in grey. Source: Knoema
Proposed Solutions
Recognising the problem back in 1952, Chairman Mao reportedly noted that ‘there's plenty of water in the south, not much water in the north. If at all possible; borrowing some water would be good.’ Over 50 years later, in 2003, China started construction on exactly that through the South-North Water Transfer Project. Through a series of canals, water was diverted to the northern provinces from the Yangtze river and its tributaries. The Western and Central canal cost $62 billion to build but an additional eastern route which is planned is set to mean the project will cost even more. The two completed routes and the additional Western route which is slated for completion by 2050 will work in bringing 44.8 billion m3 of water to the north. There is however still significant amounts of scarcity as this only amounts to one-fourth of the North’s water demand. The huge population in the South does not mean that it does not also have its own issues when it comes to water scarcity as China on the whole has some of the lowest overall water availability per capita at 2000m3, making it just above the threshold for being abundant, however still way below the world average. Thus because the project doesn’t actually create water but rather moves it from south to north, it could be seen to be pushing the problem downstream, putting the south under more threat in aid of the north. Additionally, the project did not come without controversy as a significant amount of people (approximately 300,000) were displaced by the creation of the two routes and as with all infrastructure projects of this scale, there were also significant environmental concerns.
Unlike the above solution, there are other solutions which have been suggested and not fully implemented. Firstly, raising water prices. The main issue with this is that 63% of water usage is used by the agricultural industry. Farms in China are usually small-scale, meaning that profit margins are tight. Therefore, if the government were to increase water prices, then these farmers would likely struggle to make a profit. Combining the plots into larger farms would add to the already politically difficult task as the issue of land rights is a complicated subject in China. Furthermore, the irrigation method that farmers in China use, flooding, is one the most water-intensive. This is especially important in rice fields which make up a large part of Chinese agricultural produce. This has led to China having much lower water productivity than western countries whilst also having significantly lower water prices. Even though raising water prices would not be the silver bullet solution when it comes to water availability, it would help in encouraging all sectors of the economy to be efficient with water use. One issue with raising water prices is that the government has been able to garner legitimacy from perceived economic progress, and raising water prices it would undermine this both in rural areas and in cities.
Source: Huang Zhenghua via Getty Images
China has been attempting to use education and water reduction targets to fight water scarcity. In 2020, the government set the target to reduce water consumption per unit of GDP by 16% by 2025. Another suggestion is to move away from the use of coal, which makes up around 60% of Chinese energy generation, and consumes a large volume of water in both energy generation and mining. Other sources such as nuclear and oil also consume water during production, so moving away from sources of energy which don’t require water is a challenging task.
Analysis
Has Chinese water scarcity caused issues whose consequences have been seen globally? Recently, in Sichuan Province, Toyota and Foxconn factories were forced to close due to a lack of energy produced by hydroelectric power caused by reduced flow. Closures such as this will have a knock-on effect on global supply chains. China is one, if not the most important country to global supply chains, and if it is facing internal issues which disrupt its supply chain, particularly with vital resources such as water, it will have a global impact. This can be seen in 2022 when Covid-19 lockdowns disrupted global supply chains due to factory closures. The global impact of China’s water scarcity does not stop there. There have been suggestions that China should reduce its water intake by importing more food rather than attempting to be as self-sufficient as possible. If China decides to increase its imports of some foods such as wheat for example, this would send shockwaves through the global food market. This is because even if China wanted to increase its imports by a fraction, due to its huge population, this would still mean a huge amount of imports. As noted by the Baker Institute, ‘sudden large-demand increases from China would likely challenge the stability of the food-energy-water nexus.’ In a global food market where the war on Ukraine and other world events are creating volatility, it is perhaps not optimal for China or global food supplies to do this.
Lastly, as explored in the previous article of this series. China has much control over many of Asia’s most crucial rivers through its Tibetan province. In 2017 India was alarmed by (now known to be fraudulent) reports that China would divert Himalayan glacial water to China’s western provinces. India’s response is an example of the apprehension with which China’s neighbours view the issue. Despite the report being fraudulent, China’s water scarcity is nevertheless worrying for its neighbours as it could impact how it acts with regard to sources of rivers that are crucial to its neighbours.
Conclusion
China’s water scarcity problem is only going to get worse as the effects of climate change intensify and consumption increases and there appears to be no silver bullet solution. Chinese influence on global markets and supply chains cannot be understated, making the issue of water scarcity of global significance. As China attempts to find solutions which are palatable for its population, Its neighbours will look on with caution as the most populous country on earth deals with a scarcity of the world’s most crucial resource - water.