War in Europe Accelerates Nordic Defence Cooperation - A Comprehensive Analysis of a Changing Nordic Region

As the war in Ukraine enters its tenth month, the geopolitical landscape of Europe is rapidly changing in response to the aggression. In particular, the war is fundamentally changing security policies in the Nordic region, strengthening beliefs in common security interests and investment priorities, and accelerating Nordic security and defence cooperation. These developments indicate a shift towards a higher level of geostrategic awareness among the Nordic countries, which shapes the dynamics of the regional security discourse.

These regional changes come at a time when Russia is increasing its efforts to taunt its Nordic neighbours. Relations between Norway and Russia have deteriorated in recent years due to increased hostile Russian activities. Norway has seen a surge of Russian drone activity around its critical infrastructure and sensitive facilities, which has resulted in diplomatic disputes between the two countries’ ambassadors. Furthermore, the sabotage of the Nord Stream II gas pipeline in September has increased the vigilance of the Nordic nations. Thus, the threat of infrastructure sabotage by an adversary strengthens the need to coordinate security policies between countries.

One of the measurable effects of the war is the increase in defence spending seen in all new budgets in the Nordic countries. The Norwegian government, led by Labour Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre, recently released its new budget, providing for an increase of 7.2 billion Norwegian kroner (around USD 665 million) for its national defence. The country has also demonstrated its commitment to deterring Russia by circumventing its own laws and joining the EU in providing arms to Ukraine, justifying it by the extraordinary situation. Sweden seeks to increase its military spending to meet the NATO target of 2% of GDP by 2026, increasing its defence budget by USD 800 million for the 2023 budget. Finland has decided on a large boost of USD 2.2 billion over the next four years, as it considers that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally changed its security environment

The most important change seen after 24 February 2022, is the joint NATO application of Sweden and Finland. The accession of these two countries to the transatlantic defence alliance fundamentally changes the geopolitical orientation of European security and broadens the dimensions of security concerns of NATO members from Norway to the entire Nordic region. The increase in the number of countries operating within the NATO framework produces many opportunities to strengthen deterrence capabilities against an aggressive Russia and simplifies the ability of countries to integrate their defence capabilities to ensure a more secure Nordic region. Swedish and Finnish NATO membership will strengthen the voice of Northern European nations in the organisation and will increase the capability of other Atlantic-oriented members to promote their interests. This means that a geographical focus on the North could develop into a strategic priority for the organisation in the coming years, determined in large part by developments in the war in Ukraine.

However, other interesting developments illustrate accelerated Nordic efforts outside NATO. The five Nordic prime ministers met in Oslo on 15 August and issued a joint statement on increased cooperation in security and defence. In the statement, the countries listed their ambitions for further cooperation, including exploring opportunities for political cooperation on security issues in the region, actively contributing to the development and strengthening of NATO, and strengthening classified communication channels between relevant ministries and institutions. The statement explicitly mentions Russia’s war of aggression as a primary reason for the need to strengthen Nordic defence cooperation. This demonstrates how changing geopolitical circumstances are both transforming foreign and security policy doctrines within the EU, but also accelerating increased cooperation between the Nordic countries. Furthermore, a week before the meeting, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden established a framework for cooperation on matters of military equipment. This framework builds on a treaty ratified by the five countries in 2015, which at the time only regulated the main principles of cooperation related to military equipment.

Security cooperation in the Nordic region is not new. The process of integrating the Nordic military forces has been an objective since the formalisation of the NORDEFCO in November 2009. NORDEFCO was established in the wake of the 2009 financial crisis as an austerity measure to optimise defence expenditure. Nordic security and defence cooperation has traditionally been seen as a supplement to existing security frameworks rather than a necessity for the countries, as Norwegian and Danish defence coordination has been embedded within NATO, while Sweden and Finland have sought to operate independently. This has led to NORDEFCO being treated as a secondary structure in Nordic security and defence policy. However, following the war in Ukraine, Nordic countries are showing a renewed commitment to cooperate with each other. The Presidium of the Nordic Council recently hosted a meeting with the chair of NORDEFCO, Norwegian Minister of Defence Bjørn Arild Gram, along with the leaders of the Nordic parliamentary defence committees. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the future of Nordic defence cooperation, stressing that NORDEFCO should be updated within the framework of NATO.

The accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO will provide new opportunities for Nordic cooperation. Their expected membership will provide new areas for Nordic forces to operate in, more military bases, and aircraft. The Nordic countries alone will have 250 fighter jets, including about 150 F-35 jets and a considerable number of Swedish JAS 39 Gripen. Currently, the individual forces are coordinated separately by the air forces of their respective states. However, to further strengthen Nordic defence cooperation, military officials have called for an assessment of the possibilities of establishing a NATO military air headquarters in the Nordic region. Already in June 2022, a joint NATO air defence exercise involving Sweden and Finland was held, indicating optimism for further integration of Nordic air defence.

In addition to multilateral cooperation under NORDEFCO, bi- and trilateral agreements are also being negotiated to further integrate the Nordic militaries. On  22 November, Norway signed an agreement with Sweden and Finland, with the central objective of planning operations between the parties in strategically vulnerable areas, discussions, and scenario-based exercises in accordance with national operational plans and common security challenges. The possibilities for deepening ties between the Nordic defence institutions thus appear to be dynamic and multi-layered, providing flexibility for the different states to formalise their cooperation interests on different platforms.

In sum, developments in the region indicate a paradigm shift in the perception of the Nordic nations as a geopolitical region, which proves that there is a before and after 24 February 2022 in Europe. Although Nordic security cooperation in its current form is more of an alignment than an alliance, the evidence from this analysis suggests that the deepening of the cooperation through formal institutions offers opportunities to become a central element of European security collaboration in the aftermath of the war in Ukraine. Simultaneously, a more integrated common Nordic security and defence policy also has the potential to contribute to a stronger security community outside the region, as it can place the Nordic countries in a common European framework outside NATO. If this can be achieved, the region could experience an increased level of security, which is needed given its geostrategic situation.