CSTO unprecedented deployment to Kazakhstan casts doubt and mistrust amid widespread social unrest
What’s happening in Kazakhstan
Protests began on 2 January 2022 in the oil rich western Mangystau region, where the government lifted its price cap on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), whose price reportedly rose from 50 to 120 tenge per litre. Initially ignited by economic grievances, protests became a way for disgruntled Kazakh citizens to protest government corruption, poverty and unemployment. Blaming foreign-trained terrorist gangs’ responsibility behind the turmoil, on January 5 the Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev pleaded CSTO assistance. A few hours later, the CSTO Chairman and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced the CSTO agreed to intervene by deploying collective peacekeeping forces to Kazakhstan, which would be in charge of “restoring and normalizing the situation”. Specifically, the CSTO peacekeeping force is a set of peacekeeping contingents including “specially trained military, police and civilian personnel”, whose tasks mainly consist in ceasefire monitoring and deconfliction.
The CSTO intervention
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) was launched in 2002 by Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan, as a way to protect member states from potential external threats. This premise justifies both President Tokayev’s and the Kremlin’s insistence in framing a narrative of foreign––namely western––collusion in fomenting the current protests rocking Kazakhstan. In his statement, CSTO chairman Nikol Pashinyan justified CSTO intervention under article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty which states “in case of aggression commission […] to any of the Member States, all the other Member States shall immediately provide the necessary help, including military one”. However, the importance of the CSTO intervention resides right in its unprecedented character, as this is the first time in which the CSTO agreed to deploy forces to a member state. The CSTO rejected to intervene on two occasions. The first in 2010, amid significant ethnic unrest in Kyrgyzstan. The second in 2021, in the framework of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border crisis.
Reactions to CSTO intervention
The CSTO intervention cast doubts and mistrust among multiple political figures. US State Department Spokesperson Ned Price expressed concerns about the legitimacy of the CSTO deployment, because “Kazakhstan has its own resources and a well-fortified government”. By the same token, EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell underlined that “outside military support to Kazakhstan should respect the state’s sovereignty and independence”. Finally, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet urged all parties to refrain from violence.
Key facts about Kazakhstan
Kazakhstan is located in Central Asia and borders with both the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation. The country gained independence in 1991, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan relies on significant oil reserves, which sustain the production of nearly 1.6 million barrels a day. From a demographic point of view, Kazakhstan is home to a significant ethnic Russian minority, which amounts to 23.7% of the total population. This explains why the Russian Federation has a vested interest in monitoring events in Kazakhstan closely. Crucially, Russian military dominance in the CSTO might trigger the risk of a revanchist Russia, using Kazakhstan turmoil as a pretext to seize part of Northern Kazakhstan.
In conclusion, Russian involvement in Kazakhstan needs to be closely monitored, as the situation in the former Soviet Republic resembles events in Ukraine at the beginning of 2014. As Russian and American officials prepare for another nerve-wracking round of negotiations concerning the Ukraine crisis, Kazakhstan should not be left to the same uncertain and gloomy destiny.