Italian political stability is at stake as the presidential vote approaches
Title image courtesy of wikimedia commons, Vlad Lesnov
On January 24, the Italian Parliament will start the process to elect the next Italian Head of State (Presidente della Repubblica), as the term of Sergio Mattarella comes to an end.
The two Chambers of the Parliament and fifty-eight regional delegates will gather and vote one-by-one through secret ballots. To get elected, any candidate needs to collect two-thirds of the votes in the first three ballots. Thereafter, a simple majority is enough. Surprises are not to be excluded since the secret vote makes it difficult for parties to control their members.
The institution of Presidente della Repubblica has gained increasing importance in the last decade as political instability increased. The Head of State holds crucial powers: it can dissolve the Parliament, call early elections and pick Prime Ministers, as well as reject laws. Mattarella, since 2015, has nominated three Prime Ministers (Paolo Gentiloni, Giuseppe Conte and Mario Draghi) in four different governments.
Italian governments have been highly unstable since 2011, but Mario Draghi’s government seems to have brought stability and credibility within one year. The national unity government led by the former President of the European Central Bank, composed mostly of politicians from different parties and some technocrats, has appeased markets and the western liberal democracies due to its parliamentary support and socio-economic reform plans. A difficult task in times of pandemic. The main credit for this goes to Draghi’s personal credibility, domestically and abroad.
A puzzling situation
The parliamentary equilibrium reflects the last general election in 2018: Five Star Movement (anti-establishment) holds the relative majority, just ahead of Matteo Salvini’s Lega (far-right) and the Democratic Party (left).
Silvio Berlusconi, the former three times Prime Minister, has been promoting his own election for months and now appears to be the right coalition’s (Lega, Fratelli d’Italia and Forza Italia) first candidate. Nevertheless, it is unlikely that Berlusconi would be the next Italian President. Discontent within his own coalition already emerged clearly. Moreover, the left and M5S reject the name of Berlusconi on the grounds of his government experience and his troubles with criminal justice.
The widely-perceived popular choice is still Mario Draghi. Rumors of his possible succession to Mattarella had already circulated when he accepted the Prime Minister’s office one year ago. He is the only one who enjoys bipartisan and international favour.
If formal support of Draghi proves to be impossible, the Parliament will likely converge on an outsider. On this front, Marta Cartabia, a jurist and current Minister of Justice, and Gianni Letta, an experienced politician, are valid possibilities. Pier Ferdinando Casini, a former lower house speaker and for years representative of the political centre, could be a choice of last resort, as well as the former Minister Giuliano Amato.
Why does the choice matter?
Draghi’s potential departure from government, however, risks the recently-gained economic and political stability. Draghi’s election could leave a vacuum where political instability could fester and jeopardize the post-pandemic recovery. If Draghi is elected president, almost certainly this would bring the general election forward by a year, in 2022 instead of 2023. Opinion polls suggest snap elections could hand the victory to the right coalition. Due to frictions within the coalition and the ambiguous attitude of many right-wing representatives toward the EU, this might lead to a new period of political instability in Italy, at the worst time ever. Indeed, markets and the European establishment are concerned that a government change would entail a delay to the implementation of the Recovery Fund and related reforms, both pivotal aspects to fostering the Italian economy.
Furthermore, Draghi hasn't had time to implement the envisaged reforms in sectors such as justice, welfare and taxation or to address the structural issues of the Italian economy. Italy suffers from a slowdown in productivity and low levels of investments in critical sectors such as energy, infrastructure, R&D and public health. The implementation of these investments will require political stability and depends largely on the funds provided by the Next Generation EU. Moreover, a large stock of public debt puts a heavy burden on Italian public finances.
The next Italian President will face a difficult challenge: ensure the internal stability of an heterogeneous government coalition while ferrying Italy outside the pandemic crisis.