Norway’s new ‘High North’ Policy: Promoting regional “stability” is the aim, but critics fear it may simply fuel tensions instead

The Norwegian government recently released their newly revamped ‘High North’ policy for Norwegian strategy in the Arctic circle. Its foremost goal was highlighted as bringing “peace, stability and predictability” (The High North policy, 2020) to a region that Norway had previously emphasised in 2010 as ‘High North, low tension’ (Therese Ekfeldt, 2018), but has since become an area of increasing geopolitical tension, great power competition and instability, particularly since 2019 (Marc Lanteigne, 2019).

Specifically for Norway, the strategy notes that they are now “facing a Russia” who presents “a strategic challenge to Norway” (The High North Policy, 2020). This references both wider developments in Ukraine and Syria, but also Russia’s major modernization and reinforcement of its large Arctic-based “Northern Fleet” (TASS, 2020).

To counter this Norway hopes to increase regional cooperation with Russia, while at the same time also welcoming and facilitating increased NATO, and specifically US participation, in the High North, noting that Norway will continue to rely on “Allied activity and presence” as the basis for its security (The High North Policy, 2020).

However, these plans may in fact drive up regional tensions as the latter cancels the former’s impact due to US-Russian distrust and increasing competition. As such Norwegian defence experts have highlighted that the policy of relying on allied forces, particularly the US, to be active in Norwegian Arctic interests, will actually threaten neighboring Russia and force it to expand its own presence as a classic security dilemma is created (Peter Danilov, 2020). Far from then aiding to promote “stability” the policies two-pronged Russia strategy may in fact see it scupper its main aim of re-establishing stability and fuel a far more dangerous Arctic instead.