Ukraine Watch- Reliable Information from and on the situation in Ukraine
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The Issue Of Transnistria In The Ukrainian Conflict
- Phaedon Angelopoulos
26 February 2022 00:09 GMT+2
Transnistria is a de facto independent, unrecognised breakaway region of Moldova, situated on the border of Moldova with Ukraine. The region has its own currency, government and military and uses the Cyrilic alphabet. A permanent peacekeeping force composed of local, Moldovan and Russian soldiers is constantly present to ensure compliance with the 1992 ceasefire and controls the demilitarised zone along the Ukrainian border.
The current political situation dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union, but what is important to know in regards to the current situation in Ukraine is that the region enjoys great support from Russia, has a large ethnic Russian population and following the 2014 annexation of Crimea, it officially requested to join the Russian Federation. This is still pending.
As of the time of writing, reports mention 1500-2000 Russian soldiers, as well as approximately 10,000 loyal to Russia, situated on Ukraine’s south-western border. The distance between the besieged city of Odessa in Ukraine and the Transinistrian capital Tiraspol is just 100km, meaning that this force could potentially join Russian forces there, in violation of Moldova’s neutrality. The Ukrainian ambassador in Moldova has accused the Russian military of adopting this policy, with local Russian-allied individuals stirring unrest in Odessa. While there is very little coverage from mainstream media, the Moldovan reaction to the invasion, amid speculation of explosions and attacks, shows that the possibility of Transinistrian involvement is not ludicrous and the situation is being monitored closely.
The Unfolding Refugee Crisis
- Ollie Gordon-Brown
25 February 2022 21:43 GMT
More than 100,000 Ukrainians have fled the crisis in the past 48 hours, according to the UN Refugee Agency, with that number predicted to increase to potentially 5 million total leaving Ukraine as the Russian invasion continues. With initial movements from the East towards the capital Kyiv, as forces have pushed into the capital the citizens of Kyiv have been seen queueing in their thousands for trains and on highways leading West, towards the city of Lviv and the Ukrainian border with Poland, Romania, Hungary, Moldova and Slovakia. More than 10,000 have entered Romania, and more than 29,000 Ukrainian civilians have made it to Poland in the last 48 hours alone, with Poland promising to absorb up to 1m refugees by itself if necessary.
Poland even removed COVID-19 testing entry requirements for refugees entering from Ukraine, and other nations including Chechia have set up fast-track entry and even made trains available to take asylum seekers away from the affected region to safety. The UN Refugee Agency has asked for $190m to be able to effectively able to deal with the unfolding humanitarian crisis and meet the immediate needs of 1.8m people, of which half are either young or elderly.
There are fears this could become the worst refugee crisis seen in Europe since the Second World War, dwarfing the numbers seen coming from the Syrian crisis in 2015.
Global Protests In Support of Ukraine
- Phaedon Angelopoulos
25 February 2022 20:00 GMT+2
Within hours of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, several protests were organised around the world, in support of Ukraine and peace. The majority of those protests took place in front of Russian diplomatic buildings such as embassies and consulates. It is important to note that the protests do not target the people of Russia but rather, President Putin, the oligarchs and the war in general, as seen from signs calling to end the war and anti-Putin messaging. Protests are currently planned in London, Chicago, Brussels, Athens, Paris and more.
Protests that took place on 24/02 but not limited in:
UK (Manchester, London, Edinburgh), Israel, USA (New York, Washington, Chicago), Beirut, Tokyo, Sydney, Global (list compiled by Aljazeera).
Protests Erupt Across Russia as the Second Day of War Begins
- Jonas Nepozitek
25th February 2022 (18:23 GMT+1)
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24th, people have voiced their concerns in anti-war protests that took place in at least 54 Russian towns which resulted in more than 1,700 arrested by Russian authorities.
Although almost a third of Russians hold a negative view of Ukraine and even though Putin has claimed he had support in invading Ukraine, thousands of people marched into the streets demanding an end to the conflict. The full extent of the discontent is unknown, but about 32% of Russians are worried about Western sanctions, a third round of which has been recently promised by the EU.
A recent poll by the Levada Center has shown that about 45% of Russians agreed with Putin’s pre-invasion recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. London Politica shall monitor the development of Russian domestic perception of the war.
Western Sanctions Begin to Bite
- Keita Vasiljeva & Ollie Gordon-Brown
17.12pm 25 February 2022
As of 25 February 2022, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Japan, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States have officially imposed some form of sanctions against Russia.
The UK’s sanctions spanned a wide range of industries, targeting specific ‘high-tech industrial exports’ and encompassed individual oligarchs and politicians as well as businesses and banks. In total, 8 individuals, 6 banks, and 5 companies have all come under the UK government’s sanctions. Additionally, Russia’s national airline Aeroflot was also banned from UK airspace. The UK have been the biggest proponents of shutting Russia out of the SWIFT international banking system.
The US followed with their round of sanctions on 7 Russian individuals and 7 banks. It further sanctioned “export blocks on technology”, promising that this was only the first step in an attempt to stop Russia’s actions in Ukraine.
The EU made a unanimous decision to sanction 3 Russian banks in addition to 27 individuals and entities, as well as 351 members of the Russian parliament on the basis of “undermining Ukrainian sovereignty”. The bloc is currently amidst talks regarding blocking Russia from the SWIFT system.
There are concerns amongst some allies, notably the USA and Germany, that cutting Russia off from the SWIFT system would force them into a closer economic relationship with the still-neutral China - without EU member unanimity, the Belgium-based messaging service remains open.