It comes as a surprise that up until this point Russia is yet to play its ace up its sleeve, which consists of dragging Belarus into the fray and opening a new front in Ukraine. However, this is likely to change given that later this past week Alexander Lukashenko announced that his country would be forming a new Territorial Defence Force. With a paramilitary structure and a membership that will consist of 100,000 to 150,000 volunteers, Lukashenko’s new military corps indicates that Belarus is headed towards conflict. Despite this, media outlets and experts have downplayed the significance of this event, as many remain sceptical over Minsk’s willingness to wage war. Could we be headed towards a new rude awakening or is this a genuine defensive move out of Belarussian fear of Ukraine?

The latter point is what Lukashenko would like you to believe, as he and Putin are no strangers to using rhetoric that condemns the West of aggression while also creating a siege mentality within their countries. This phoney defensive narrative should not be taken seriously, especially since Russia has a long history of conducting false flag attacks to serve its interests. Ultimately, Minsk could have well created a smokescreen that is being used to disguise the two possible uses of this new Territorial Defence Force. One of these involves Lukashenko tightening his grip on power, which would enable his regular troops to invade Ukraine without the worry of having to be re-called to quash any future unrest back home. With the 2020 mass protests still fresh in the mind of Lukashenko, the fear of being ousted has deterred the Belarussian leader from entering conflict. It is also possible to imagine that these units could see direct action in Ukraine, since Russia itself currently relies on paramilitary formations to carry out its dirty work. Either way, Minsk’s actions pose a threat to Ukraine and its north-western flank which could find itself exposed if a new offensive is launched.

Belarus has undoubtedly been Russia’s closest ally in terms of providing political and logistical support to Vladimir Putin’s war of conquest. Lukashenko has done everything short of invading Ukraine to keep Moscow happy, as it is well known that his country is essentially a puppet state propped up by Russia. This has become especially apparent since the start of the conflict, as Lukashenko has allowed Russia to station a healthy contingent of land and air forces within his country. With the control and influence that Moscow wields over Belarus, it is likely that the creation of the Territorial Defence Force serves primarily the interests of the Kremlin. Putin clearly sees Belarus as a strategic asset, so much so that leaks have indicated a potential annexation of the territory to mainland Russia by 2030. Due to this, it is of imperative importance to realise that Russia and Belarus act in unison and that significant Belarussian policy decisions are normally taken with the approval of Moscow. Not making this simple distinction could reveal itself as a major mistake since Putin’s track record of aggression leads us to believe that the Territorial Defence Force will play some sort of role in Belarus’s entry into the war.

One of the main concerns policy makers faced when the war in Ukraine broke out was the potential internationalisation of the conflict. With Russia and Ukraine currently at a stalemate, Moscow may feel compelled to play on this fear of internationalisation by pushing Belarus into battle. What Russia now lacks in firepower may be compensated for by opening anew 1,084 kilometre front that is in direct proximity to Kyiv. Putin is likely to try and overwhelm Ukraine by diverting its attention to the Belarussian border, in an attempt to thin out and overextend Zelensky’s resources and personnel. The serious deficiencies of the Belarusian army though, could hinder a military strategy of this type, as Lukashenko’s smallregular fighting force has never seen combat in its history. Ukraine should nevertheless be cautious of its rogue northern neighbour, which threatens to create a major strategic nightmare for Kyiv.