War in Ukraine, the West, and what's happening in Moldova?
Russia’s New Offensive
Since 10th of February, Russia has renewed intense missile attacks on Ukraine’s infrastructure and throughout the eastern front. This comes as Russia, according to NATO, launches a new offensive in Eastern Ukraine. As it has been for months now, Bakhmut is under the heaviest bombardment. The deputy commander of Ukraine’s Svoboda battalion stated that “the entire perimeter, and essentially the entire Bakhmut direction and Kostyantynivka are under crazy, chaotic shelling”. While Bakhmut right now is still under Ukrainian control, it remains at risk of falling to Russian forces. Yet a change in Russia’s strategy is expected soon due to weather. As we are seeing intensifying air attacks, with the Russian Air Force performing more active manoeuvres in the area, weather forecasts in Donetsk and Luhansk regions for the coming week suggest that the ground is already softening up and will continue doing so in the coming weeks. As proposed by military analyst and lecturer of “Jonas Žemaitis War Academy”, Artur Plokšto, a softer ground means that the offensives on the ground using heavy machinery – such as tanks and BTR infantry fighting vehicles used by the Russian army – are unlikely until the ground dries up over the coming months in the spring.
The Ammunition Problem
On 30th of January, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg noted that Ukrainian armed forces are using more ammunition than NATO allies can produce. Based on recent statistics, Ukrainians fire between 4,000 to 7,000 shells each day/ When observing the United States’ production capacity of 155mm shells of about 11,000 a month, contribution commitments from others governments is vital.
In response to the issue, different EU leaders proposed new plans to tackle Ukraine’s ammunition shortage. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas proposed tackling the ammunition and general security problem of the EU through the principle of joint acquisition, just as it was done when fighting the Covid-19 pandemic. Kallas’ proposal has gained momentum, receiving recognition and support from EU’s Chief Diplomat Josep Borrell Fontelles. French President Emmanuel Macron has also proposed to organize a conference in Paris to discuss Europe's air defence. On February 17th, Macron reiterated that support for Ukraine is vital and for actors to step up. He added that the ammunition production problem must be addressed and tackled by the European states collectively, explaining that rearmament of Europe is needed and cannot be ignored.
The above allows us to observe that Western Allies have recognised the change of affairs when it comes to the type of warfare fought today. Plans are consequently being drawn up by politicians of NATO states while the defence sector is ensuring their smooth implementation. The ammunition and machinery used and produced by the west is highly technologically advanced, nevertheless, production numbers will have great effect on the success seen on the battlefield. As there are high-level concerns on Ukraine running out of ammunition, on 20 February, President Joe Biden made a surprise visit to the Ukrainian capital. Following his visit, Biden promised further military aid announcing the day after a USD $500 million aid package for Ukraine that will mainly include artillery ammunition, anti-armour systems and surveillance radars.
Tanks to Ukraine
After a historic decision to send tanks to Ukraine, Western Allies have realized their own shortcomings. Even though there are a total of about 3000 Leopard tanks produced in the world, many are non-operational or at least do not live up to what is expected of them. Spain is a great example of this problem. Spain in total possess 327 tanks, 108 are Leopard 2A4 tanks acquired from Germany in 1998, 219 are Leopard 2E produced in Spain under license from Germany with first leaving the production lines in 2002. Out of 108, only 53 of the decommissioned tanks are repairable, 33 of them require extensive work. These numbers have resulted with, out of twenty 2A4 tanks available, Madrid pledging only four to six tanks to be delivered to Kyiv.
On the other hand, Canada was the first to deliver pledged tanks, with the first arriving on the 6th of February 2023 to Poland. The United States has also pledged 31 Abrams M1 tanks, however these will take much longer to arrive. In the American case, the tanks will be taken from a dry desert storage facility in California Sierra Army Depot. However, while the tanks going to Ukraine will be the modern versions of M1 Abrams, they will be arriving without the depleted uranium armour that would normally offer an “ultra-thick” level of protection. This armour will have to be removed due to US security policies not wishing to reveal to foreign governments how the armour is crafted; this alongside other works will have to be completed, all of which will be a lengthy process to complete.
EU Sanctions
The 10th sanction package is aiming to ban exports for further EUR 11 billion, specifically targeting critical technology and industrial goods. This has led to seven Iranian entities being banned from selling sensitive equipment to Russia. This was done also with the aim to deter other entities from selling technology and industrial goods to Russia. The third aim of this latest sanction package is also targeting Russian propagandists and disinformation sources. Lastly, tracking Russian oligarchs with the aim of preventing them from liquidating their assets, this way avoiding sanctions. Ukraine has long advocated for sanctions to include the Russian nuclear sector and specifically “Rosatom” as well as individuals associated with them. Sadly the European commission has left the nuclear sector out in the 10th package. The inclusion of the nuclear sector into future sanction packages will be imperative, especially with Rosatom having been given control of Ukraine’s Zaporizhia nuclear power plant which due to its geographical placement has proven vital in aiding in Russian attacks on critical infrastructure of other nuclear power plants.
Fighter Jets and Long-Range Missiles
One of the most intriguing comments in the Munich Security Conference was made by UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. He said that the UK is “ready to support all allies if they can provide fighter jets to Ukraine now”. The UK is already the most active in training Ukrainian pilots. Prime Minister Sunak also added that it is important to send weaponry which would give Ukrainian armed forces a decisive advantage in the battlefield. This signalled that the UK would support the decision to supply long-range missiles, heavy tanks, air defences and artillery to Kyiv. Following Sunak’s comments, Prime Minister Liz Truss made comments in the House of Commons expressing favour of sending fighter jets to Ukraine.
In turning to neighbours of Ukraine, the day after President Volodimyr Zelensky’s visit to London, the Polish Prime Minister made a statement that they are ready to send Russian made MiG jets to Ukraine if the US leads a wider coalition. He also reiterated that they cannot be alone in this initiative.
As for Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz eased his thorough narrative of refusing to send fighter jets to Ukraine. However, he is still not in favour of sending them to Ukraine having recently commented that “allies should not engage in competition to outbid each other when it comes to weapon systems”.
Situation in Moldova
At the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there were already fears coming from the neighbouring state Moldova, which is in a unique position itself. Moldova has a breakaway region with Russian Armed forces stationed there known as Transnistria. Russia’s initial plan was to conquer all of the Southern part of Ukraine this way in order to create not only a land bridge between mainland Russia and Crimea but also Transnistria. The plans consisted of then to potentially absorb Moldova through a sequence of political espionage and artificial protests and implement a pro-Russian government in the country.
It was revealed more recently by Ukrainian intelligence that they have reasons to believe that this plan may still be in place. Furthermore, there are indications that Russia may use Wagner group, corruption and other tools to destabilize different regions in the Balkans and Europe, such as Moldova, to put more strain on the EU. Moldova however has already taken precautions to prevent any potential destabilization attempts and is monitoring the situation closely. A key issue area that was planned to be used in order to spark protests would be high energy and heating prices in the country. Yet the problem here is that the heating season is usually over by March. Russia’s limitations are therefore increasing as a result. This in combination with the fact that there are no real indications that pro-Russian parties in Moldova would be mobilized for a take-over of a legally elected government.