As the conflict enters week 8, Russia finds itself largely in a stalemate with Ukraine. Previous efforts in northern Kyiv have proved a complete failure, whilst progress on the Eastern front is limited. The sinking of the cruiser Moskva most certainly boosted Ukrainian morale and demonstrated that the Ukrainian military still retain the capacity to strike major targets outside of Ukrainian territory. Russian troops sent from Crimea have achieved significant gains, occupying Kherson, the first major city to fall, and have contributed to the encirclement of Mariupol. Nonetheless, mounting economic and domestic pressure is pressing Russia to end the war quickly, possibly before its symbolic Victory Day.

On 18 April, Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Russia launched its eastern offensive, and that the Battle of Donbas had begun. Using intelligence reports and strategic military analysis, this article hopes to identify and update Russian operations, and predict future events.

Eastern campaign

After redeploying units previously engaged in Kyiv to Izyum, Russian forces will aim to aid battle groups spearheading the offensive operation in the Eastern Theatre. Russian strategy relies on trapping Ukrainian forces in pockets or forcing them to withdraw under sustained artillery fire. Heavy bombardments marked the beginning of the large-scale offensive, followed by advances on its 480 km front line. It has successfully forced Ukrainian troops to fall back, though progress is still slow and lacking significant logistical support. The first day of the campaign concluded with Russia occupying the city of Kreminna.

Ukrainian forces have however successfully launched a counteroffensive in Kharkiv. Its effort successfully broke Russian defensive positions, requiring Russian forces to divert from Izyum to tackle its advance. Further operations should target Velykyi Burluk, which acts as the strategic chokepoint to Russian logistics and supplies and thus a critically important site for the Russian military operation in the area. The town has previously seen Russian convoys supplying Izyum. If the plan succeeded, it may halt the Eastern offense.

The end of Mariupol

Russian troops had encircled the port city by early March. Not only is there the strategic value of linking Donbas with Crimea, it is also where the Azov Battalion headquarters is. Often viewed as a neo-Nazi paramilitary group, eliminating the battle group will satisfy Russian war claims and boost propaganda.

The defending army has pulled back to the Azovstal factory, an metalworking industrial complex in the centre of the city, while residents are either transported away to Russian camps or under curfew. The Ukrainian President has already declared that if Russia annihilates Ukrainian’s resistance in Mariupol, no peace negotiation can carry on. Nonetheless, it is likely to see Russia dominating the trapped Ukrainian forces with overwhelming firepower. Heavier weapons, such as the “bunker-buster” bombs, are to be used to eliminate the Ukrainain holdout.

The fall of Mariupol is only inevitable, with evidence showing Russia has already occupied its port and key locations within the city centre; the complete capture of the city and a small declaration of victory by Russian forces is expected in the coming weeks. With the South-Eastern front settled, the Russian army could move these troops to aid the eastern campaign provided there is no significant counter-insurgency.

New man in charge

To regain control of the deteriorating situation, Kremlin appointed General Aleksandr Dvorniko to lead the invasion of Ukraine. Seeing the failure in northern Kyiv, the government is desperate for a change of tide. The old school general has proven ability in other theatres of war both domestically and abroad. Nicknamed the Butcher, General Dvornikov led the Russian intervention in both Chechnya and Syria. Under his command, rebel strongholds, mostly civilian compounds, were destroyed by intense shelling and airstrikes. Since Russia could not make a significant gain on the battlefield, the general could help assert Russian control over occupied territories. His iron-fist approach to crushing rebellion is perfect for Russia’s strategy in Ukraine.

Future of the Eastern offensive

It is unlikely to see Russia achieving any substantial gain over its Eastern offensive. Similar problems in logistics and communication during its Kyiv campaign will continue to plague its military, enabling its ability to launch quick assaults to cut off Ukrainian troops. However, the Russian army could still gain ground slowly under its heavy armour units and its massive troop reserves. Therefore, it is anticipated that the Ukrainian army will eventually slowly evacuate from Donbas, while Russia shifts to focus on occupation.

Ukrainian forces in the East should not be underestimated even without the destructive weapons are pouring into Ukraine from Western suppliers. The Allies have pledged more heavy weapons to Ukraine, including aircraft, tanks, and artillery. Previous supplies, including anti-tank and antiaircraft missiles have already proved effective in eliminating Russian armour. The increasing number of Western arms would only cause more difficulties for the Russian breakthrough. Moreover, soldiers in Eastern battalions have already had years of experience fighting against Russian-backed Eastern rebels. These battle-hardened veterans have successfully restricted Russian advances in the East since the outbreak of war, and in light of this new campaign, there are high expectations that they could continue to do so.

If Russia succeeds in the campaign, guerrilla warfare will be the most suitable strategy for Ukrainian resistance to take. It has already been deployed over occupied territories, only increasing as Russia occupies more towns and cities. With the right weapons, such as the anti-tank missile Javelin or the British NLAW, resistant fighters could severely damage the supply network and lower morale of Russian troops, as well as committing valuable manpower and equipment to simply maintain control of occupied areas.

The Battle of Donbas will be bloody and decisive, and battles on a larger scale will take place across the front in the coming weeks, involving heavier weapons and tank engagements. Occupations hindered by Ukrainian resistance could see civilian-targeted violence, similar to those in Bucha.