Finland and Sweden consider NATO membership bids - what’s next?
Prompted by the invasion of Ukraine, both the Finnish and Swedish governments have begun discussing the possibility of joining NATO. American and NATO officials are interested in inviting them to join NATO, as the two countries are already close with the organization and have beneficial intelligence capabilities regarding Russia. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine seems to have only advanced the move towards wider European collective security; the two states were previously uninterested in joining but are now seriously considering it.
The two Nordic nations have yet to join NATO as they both maintain a long standing international policy of neutrality. They also worry that joining the military alliance might provoke Russia - as advocates of international peace and non-interventionism, the last thing either nation wants is a war with their larger neighbor. However, that is exactly what is happening now, with Sweden and Finland both feeling under threat and worried about what their unfriendly neighbor will do next. Since the invasion of Ukraine began in February, a majority of people in both nations have begun to express support for joining NATO. Politicians in the two nations have begun talks within their government systems about the possibility of joining the Western defense alliance. The Swedish and Finnish Foreign Ministers both attended recent NATO meetings and the topic of joining the alliance was high on the agenda.
Russia warned the two Nordic nations that joining NATO would lead to military consequences, but this only further pushed public opinion toward wanting to join the alliance —as NATO members, they wouldn’t face military consequences alone. If Finland were to join the alliance, Russia would share even more of its border space with NATO, which is not something Putin wants. Instead, he has demanded that NATO move their borders back to where they were in the 1990s. It is unclear what actions, if any, Putin would take if Finland and Sweden were to join NATO; experts speculate that there could be an increase in cyber-attacks, info-warfare, and threats towards those two nations as well as all of NATO. In addition, Moscow has said that they will deploy nukes to the Baltic region to reinforce their border if Finland and Sweden are accepted to NATO.
The West has united against Putin and his warmongering in recent weeks and so I assess that the likelihood of Finland and Sweden being accepted into NATO is high. The alliance is, in light of recent international events, looking to expand its sphere of influence and it has already developed and maintained a close partnership with both Finland and Sweden for years. NATO already knows how to cooperate with these nations; they already exchange intelligence and conduct exercises together. They are already partners with NATO, and as such, they have met most of the standards and requirements for being members of NATO, so the process should be quick. There is support among NATO members for Finnish and Swedish membership, making it even more likely for their memberships to be accepted. The Secretary-General has said that it would be possible to allow the two in “quite quickly”. This could be anywhere from a few months to a year; each NATO member state needs to agree on their accession into the alliance, and it is yet unclear when Finland and Sweden will be submitting their official applications to join.