The Aftermath Of The Bucha Incident
On the 1st of April, Russian forces withdrew from the northern suburbs of Kyiv, leaving behind grotesque scenes which have prompted leaders in the West to openly discuss allegations of Russia committing war crimes. The bodies of 410 civilians have been recovered, some of them showing signs of alleged torture, or with their hands tied behind their backs. It is unclear whether this number includes those found in mass graves. These claims have been widely denied by Russia with various counter-claims, however, satellite imagery from 19/03 (i.e. from before the Russian withdrawal) corroborated evidence found on the ground.
In response, the EU commission has proposed new sanctions, targeting the Russian maritime industry and fossil fuels with a particular emphasis on coal. It is, however, notable that the trade of gas and oil will not yet be sanctioned, despite Poland’s calls to do so. The EU imports approximately 20% of its coal from Russia at an estimated cost of $4bn USD per year.
Amid a wave of rising costs that has gripped the West, centred on energy prices, Russian gas and oil is selling at record low prices, with a 35 USD discount per barrel. That is because nearly no Western company, state or individual is willing to face the socio-political fallout of openly doing business with Russia. At the same time, India and China are probably the biggest potential markets for the export resources and of crude oil in particular, considering they have maintained a non-aligned position on the war throughout the past month.