Climate Risk as a Source of Political Risk. How is Europe Responding to Minimise its Exposure?
The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere due to human activity, has led to a rapid rise in global temperatures over the last years. As the world is experiencing extreme weather conditions more frequently, countries are trying to limit their exposure to disaster risk. The consequences are especially dire in the Mediterranean, as the region is warming up faster than the global average. In addition, the Mediterranean countries’ economic model makes their economies more vulnerable to the new climate reality. Following a series of disaster wildfires in southern Europe over the last few years, the European Union (EU) is focusing on assisting its member states against climate risk by enhancing the existing EU Civil Protection Mechanism and investing more in making the economy more resilient.
Civil Protection Mechanism in Europe
In the last decades, civil protection was viewed as an issue to be dealt with at a national level, while the EU had a subsidiary role. The Union began assisting its member states with the creation of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, originally meant to be used when a disaster exceeded a member state's existing civil protection capabilities. Naturally, third countries could participate in the mechanism and ask for assistance if need be. The mechanism was providing emergency support and expertise to the affected country through the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC). Meanwhile, the Galileo system provided early warning signals through the usage of satellite maps and photos.
However, as the effects of global warming became more apparent, the existing system was not enough to deal with the increasing civil protection needs. The late and limited response of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism during the catastrophic 2017 wildfires in Portugal led to heavy criticism of its effectiveness. In response, Commission President Juncker promised to re-think the existing system. As a result, in 2019, the rescEU programme was created, aiming to boost the Bloc’s ability to respond to disasters by creating additional reserve capacities. At first, rescEU capacities were still owned and hosted by member states, meaning that the Commission needed to cooperate with the countries owning rescEU capacities to decide on the deployment. Most recently, the EU adopted a new Regulation on the EU Civil Protection Mechanism, authorising the Union to develop and control its own civil protection forces, such as air fleets and firefighting squads. Moreover, given the importance of having a solid presence of a civil protection force close to areas hit by a natural disaster, the EU began prepositioning a significant number of firefighters in areas deemed to be of high risk, such as France or Italy. The reforms have shown some signs of success, as between 2020 and 2023, the EU Civil Protection Mechanism was in a position to respond to a sharp increase in requests for assistance as the continent was dealing with the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
European Disaster Resilience
In 2023, the EU’s efforts to help its member states limit their exposure to climate risk continued, as the Union adopted 5 European Disaster Resilience to help communities better withstand emergencies. These goals include anticipating threats and identifying vulnerabilities in critical sectors, increasing population awareness to reduce the impact of a disaster, assisting the Member-States in alerting their people in time by providing quick satellite images and tracking disasters from space, enhancing the EU Civil Protection Mechanism’s capacity to respond on time by scaling up the rescEU strategic reserve and securing that civil protection systems remain operational at all times. Even though the responsibility for civil protection still lies primarily to member states, a European Civil Protection Union is slowly progressing out of necessity.
The Recovery Resilience Facility (RRF) as a tool for the Member-States to protect their economy against long-term climate risk
In addition to civil protection, the EU has a very active role in assisting its member states to protect their economies' long-term exposure to climate risk. In the past, the Union has had many programmes providing funding for infrastructure projects to limit extreme weather conditions and global warming effects. However, in addition to existing programmes, the Union recently introduced the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). It aims to make the economies of Europe more resilient against future crises by pushing towards a digital and green economic transition. Each member state was entitled to a certain amount of grants and loans based on their economic situation prior to the pandemic. The money could be modified to address the specific needs of each country.
This was the opportunity for the member states in the south to help limit their long-term exposure to climate risk. Countries like Croatia are heavily relying on their economic models for sectors of the economy that are more vulnerable to climate change, such as tourism or agriculture. Regarding the former, fluctuating and extreme weather patterns, combined with sea-level rising, could threaten the summer-based tourism industry in the Mediterranean. Similarly, extreme weather patterns are threatening the agricultural sector. Such was the case with the recent floods in Greece that destroyed the agricultural basin in Thessaly, accounting for 20 per cent of Greece’s total agricultural production. Finally, the prolonged periods of high temperatures, as a consequence of global warming, are expected to have an influence on labour productivity in warmer countries.
Consequently, warmer countries in the Mediterranean, which rely on tourism and have a more significant part of their workforce being employed in the primary sector, have to diversify their economy in order to protect themselves against climate risk. The RRF provided them with the necessary funding to build a more sustainable and resilient economy.
Will climate risk lead to further integration?
Given how interdependent EU economies are to each other, as it is becoming apparent that no one country can deal with the consequences of global warming on its own, it is likely that the need for cooperation to limit exposure to climate risk would lead to further integration on civil protection and funding programmes in the future.
Conclusion
To conclude, global warming is increasingly becoming a source of risk for countries. In the short term, the potential for physical damage and economic losses can be severe, as climate change has made natural disasters more frequent than in the past. At the same time, long-term economic growth can be at risk, as extreme weather conditions can hinder productivity and negatively affect economic sectors that rely on the environment, such as tourism or agriculture. Every country will be affected by climate change. However, in Europe, the consequences will be more severe in the Mediterranean. The region is warming up faster than the global average, while the countries’ economies are more vulnerable to climate change. In response to an increasing need for cooperation to limit disaster risk in Europe, the EU is progressively enhancing its Civil Protection Mechanism- This trend is likely to continue in the foreseeable future. At the same time, the EU is diverting more funding towards building an economically more resilient Union against climate risk in the long term. The primary beneficiaries of those efforts are the member states of the South, the same ones that are the most vulnerable to the consequences of global warming. The EU will likely increase its efforts in combating climate risk in the foreseeable future.