For every authoritarian leader, a stable domestic base is essential in ruling successfully. How one accomplishes this has varied over the years, yet propaganda as a tool has consistently played an important role for authoritarian leaders. Josef V. Stalin understood the importance of his propaganda machine, using it to modify history as well as “remove” people. Whether this took the form of posters, television or news articles, well-crafted information was crucial in shaping the public image of the newly formed regime. The information warfare between the East and West, similar to that which took place from 1920s onwards, is once again alive and well. Similar to Soviet leaders of the past, Putin realizes propaganda to be a vital tool to maintain order, especially in their now three-month long “special military operation” (i.e., all-out war) in Ukraine. What is clear is that if we hope to see a Russian withdrawal of troops and have greater security for Ukraine, revealing the lies behind the Kremlin’s propaganda machine will be a necessary step.

In observing the state of Russian media and journalism, London Politica’s Aidan Gorman noted how the current Russian media is attempting to remove the privilege of truth for Russian citizens. Data on the amount of public support for the “special military operation” in Ukraine must be heeded with caution, however: in a recent report by researchers at the LSE,  who used a “list experiment”, researchers were able to conclude that Russian’s are more than likely hiding their true views on Russia’s military operation and that any statistics presented by Russia are highly likely to be inflated. Additionally, it is safe to assume that the older generation who do not know how to use VPN or access external news sources are more influenced by the Russian state media. In saying this, Russia’s strongest domestic asset is its control over the State-run news agencies, especially Rossiya 1, but if more individuals are able to circumvent Kremlin’s propaganda, Putin will continue to face an uphill battle.

At the international level, we are seeing a strong, informal Sino-Russo Alliance via mutual dissemination of propaganda which adds to the hypothesis of the world entering another cold war and increasing the irreparable damage to Russia’s relations with the West. Efforts in blocking the spread of disinformation, whether originating from Russia, China, or any of their allies, will be necessary in the ever-evolving climate. Prior to the escalation of the war in Ukraine, we witnessed Western powers maintaining high-level aversion to the different levels of sanctions to be placed on Russia, for example, in relation to removing Russia’s access to SWIFT with EU members such as Germany showing a strong disinterest due to possible economic impacts.

As the war in Ukraine progressed and Russian propaganda began to rise, a range of sanctions were implemented. For example, the UK Foreign Secretary announced sanctions on Russian media companies who own Russia Today and Sputnik in an effort to combat Putin’s propaganda machine. Other member states must follow suit if such actions are to have high impact on Russian propaganda. For the United States, they have followed the UK’s actions in preventing disinformation from Sputnik and Russia Today being spread on Meta, Google and Twitter. US-Russia relations with Putin have been stressed with little success since President George Bush in the early 2000s. Even following the Russian interference of the 2016 US presidential elections – where the Putin administration used propaganda tools to influence the outcome – the actions of the United States follow ones of the past. Specifically, their decision-making pattern to only verbally condemn and vilify President Putin (rather than the country as a whole), without any clear punishment.  Given the current ongoing war in Ukraine, propaganda has been flowing more aggressively, and containment policies of disinformation will prove essential if we hope to have desirable outcome such as a Russian retreat.

Russian Propaganda and Ukraine

During the 2014 invasion of Ukraine, propaganda was compared to the reminiscent days of the Soviet Union. The success which Stalin achieved in distilling information is arguably due to people’s access to information, a problem which citizens today have the ability to fight. Russia’s sanctions on social media, for example, can be avoided through use of VPNs. Of course, older generations who look to the television for answers are another story. A recent article published by Meduza reveals how young individuals living in Ukraine have fallen out with their family. The families in question were based in either Russian or pro-Russia territories such as Donetsk, and in all cases, the families had access almost exclusively to pro-Russia television channels. For one individual, his parents and sister were unwilling to believe the videos and photographs captured which clearly present Russia as a brutal invader of Ukraine, killing civilians and bombing hospitals. 

The rhetoric we’re seeing in Russian state-owned media, which most will be familiar with, is the placement of Ukraine as a source of neo-Nazi groups. This gives a prerogative for Russia to liberate a land that was once part of Russian identity. In the city of Sevastopol, a local citizen who stands against the war explains that at a local nail salon, you often hear such lies: "The Donbass was bombed for eight years", "It's all the Nazis 'fault", "The Ukrainians asked for it, but our guys will release them". The image of a large “Z” represents the “special operation” as well, with many individuals now wearing it to show their loyalty to Putin. Social media has responded to this with a caricature of Putin wearing an armband, drawn in a manner to correlate the “Z” to the Nazi swastika.

Of course, as the war in Ukraine continues, the lies continue to build in order to justify the Russian military’s heinous crimes. For example, on 2 March, Russian military destroyed Kyiv’s TV tower, justifying it by explaining there were Ukrainian spies conducting psychological warfare. These types of lies resonate well with the Stalinist era. Towards the end of the 1930s, in response to Stalin’s fear of Muslim communities, we saw innocent civilians accused without evidence as Japanese or American spies and that they threatened the freedom of the Soviet Union. Often referred to as the “Great Terror”, it was a time where Stalin revealed his true colours and killed an estimated 750,000 people. Given there are still a minority of Russian people who stand against the war and can access factual information, the central question remains as to whether Putin can hold on to power and avoid a similar pathway.  

The Strength of the Russian Propaganda Machine

Instances of cracks in the propaganda machine can be considered highly noteworthy when found in rural communities due to their isolation from bigger cities such as Moscow or St. Petersburg. Travelling 3,000 km east of Moscow into Siberia are the cities of Novosibirsk and Akademgorodok. In response to the Russian invasion, Novosibirsk inhabitants protested on 24 February in support of Ukraine. Since then, a photography exhibition was erected to provide evidence behind the truth of Russia’s war, following a consequential divide in the community as to whether the past and present assaults on Ukraine are actually what the Russian government is making them out to be. Local residents are reportedly “torn” as many have families in Ukraine and are unsure what to believe.

The case of Novosibirsk is a strong example of people having the ability to see through the dis-information being produced in Russian media. However, the quantification of public support (either for or against Russia) remains almost impossible to obtain. Kremlin officials are currently under the impression, based on classified survey data, that as a result of the majority of Russian citizens being in support of the war, a negotiated peace between Ukraine and Russia would be impossible as it would negatively affect Putin’s ratings.

Additionally, at the international level, China has joined the fight in spreading disinformation at the global level.  Reasoning behind this alliance follows in connection with the mutual disdain of the United States, with China using Russian propaganda to paint the USA in an increasingly negative light. One interesting stumble made by Russia and China was in their efforts to create propaganda posters, in which people pointed out how the images appeared to be in support of the LGBTQ+ community. An obvious accident, however, allowed LGBTQ+ activists within China to re-use the State-made posters as supportive imagery.

Final Points

The younger generations who use VPNs as well as social media to find truth external to Russian disinformation are crucial in the fight against Putin’s agenda. If we hope to see a change in the regime, it must come from the inside. However, the resilience of the Russian State media remains strong, even though there are signs of waning. Given the attitude presented by Kremlin officials, a negotiated peace does not seem a high possibility. War will likely continue until the stability of Putin’s base begins to falter to much higher levels. Even though authoritarian leaders have great capacity to control their people by militant means, with Russia having already arrested an estimated 13,500 protesters since March 2022, this will prove difficult to sustain in the long-term if protests continue.

Additionally, while the international efforts towards Russian propaganda are critical to prevent the spread of disinformation, we must support, by any means necessary, Russian citizens access to information. Those living outside of Russia with access to photos and videos condemning Russia’s acts must infiltrate the Russian border by sending them to friends and family. One alarming result of the war in Ukraine is the growing relationship between China and Russia, and is certainly one to be surveilled closely as it was only in February when China asked Russia to delay their Ukrainian efforts until after the Beijing Olympics. The target demographic, however, is not to be those who are in complete dedication to Kremlin ideology, but those who are suspicious or open-minded of the ongoing genocidal acts committed by the Russian government and its military.