Estonia: Holding out Hope for a Ukrainian Victory
Estonia is a country in Northern Europe situated in the Baltic Region. It borders Latvia and Russia and shares maritime borders with Finland. Following their occupation by the Soviet Union for five decades, Estonia regained its independence in 1991. Following that, Estonia moved quickly to join NATO and the European Union, attaining the long-standing goal in 2004. Since then, the country has created a well-developed digital and IT sector, ranking first in the EU in the digitalisation of public services, and creating innovative software, such as Skype. In 2021, Estonia was named one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.
Nonetheless, despite its success as an independent nation, due to its Soviet history and a relatively large Russian minority, Estonia has been under constant pressure from Russia. It is subjected to regular Russian strategic information operations and propaganda activities that are parts of campaigns created to decrease trust in Estonian institutions, provoke ethnic and social tensions, and erode confidence in NATO. Estonia is also suffering from Russian cyberattacks and frequent airspace and naval border violations. In addition, Russia has made attempts to influence Estonia’s foreign, security, and defence policies. For example, it has carried out repeated disinformation campaigns accusing Estonia of discriminating against ethnic Russians and tried to instigate dissent among Russian minorities.
The issue of ethnic minorities is linked to Estonia’s history during its Soviet occupation. After the annexation by the Soviet Union in 1944, Estonia’s migration was partly forced, with Russians migrating to Estonia. The majority of the Russian-speaking population stayed in Estonia after it regained its independence, which significantly changed the country’s ethnic makeup. In 1934, before the Soviet occupation, the number of non-Estonians was low, accounting for approximately 12 percent of the population. The main immigration flow occurred in 1945, managed by Soviet authorities, although a substantial immigration stream continued throughout the postwar period. In addition, about three percent of Estonians were deported to Siberia in 1949. As a result, the non-Estonian population rose to 39 percent of the total population in 1989. a As a result of a percentage of its minorities leaving the country after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the current number of its Russia minority stands at approximately 25 percent. In Ukraine in 2022, Estonia’s politicians and general public are starting to question if Russia is going to attempt to use Estonia’s Russian minority to destabilise the country.
Partly motivated by those concerns, Estonia has announced a transition to having Estonian as the only language of instruction in schools, with the transition set to begin in 2024. It now bans the use of languages other than Estonian as the language of instruction in schools, if agreed by a school's board of trustees and the local authorities. Similarly, Estonia is planning the transition to solely Estonian-language kindergarten education starting in 2025.
Furthermore, concerned by the effect of Russian propaganda,Estonia has banned access to Russian state media online, arguing that it incites hate. Similarly, Estonia has also stopped broadcasting four Russian and one Belarusian TV channels on its territory, arguing that they encouraged the violation of laws, harmed the security of society, including the state's internal security, and put national security in danger.
Additionally, seeing that Russia is willing to reach its geopolitical goals even by the use of force, Estonia strongly condemned its military aggression in Ukraine, declaring Russia a terrorist regime and calling it the biggest danger to peace both in Europe and in the whole world. Therefore, it does not come as a surprise that the events in Ukraine have triggered several other changes in Estonia. For example, important decisions have been made in Estonia’s defence area, allocating budgetary funds to buy aerial weapon systems, missile systems, and naval mines. In addition, Estonia has committed to increasing its defence budget spending to three percent of its GDP by 2024. The country has also increased NATO’s presence to strengthen its defence forces, a move that is likely to further sour its relationship with Russia, which has stated that Estonia's active role in NATO is a threat to Russia’s security, sovereignty, and autonomy.
Other decisions provoked by the war in Ukraine relate to immigration. Similarly to several other EU countries, Estonia banned Russian tourists, including those with a short-stay Schengen visa. Additionally, its Prime Minister urged the EU to introduce a travel ban, arguing that visiting Europe is not a human right. The country also made the decision not to recognise people fleeing Russia to avoid conscription as refugees. The decision has been partly justified by Estonia as being due to security concerns, and partly fuelled by the assumption that Russians bear some collective responsibility for supporting Putin’s regime.
Finally, some of Estonia’s decisions have been of a symbolic nature to show solidarity with Ukraine while denouncing Soviet and Russian militarism and the occupation of Estonia. The government adopted the decision to remove the Soviet Union war monuments to prevent them from causing more hostility in society, a decision that Vladimir Putin called outrageous. The move was followed by the most extensive Russian cyber attacks on Estonia since 2007. Nonetheless, Estonia has continued to make other politically symbolic decisions, such as renaming streets named after Communist leaders in the city of Narva.
In addition to making changes within its country, the war in Ukraine has prompted Estonia to provide substantial support to Ukraine, with Estonia being among the countries that provide Ukraine with the most military and humanitarian aid per capita. In terms of military support, Estonia has been providing military aid by supplying Ukraine with military equipment and training for Ukrainian artillery troops. In addition, Estonia has sent medical equipment and supplies, personal protective equipment, and military food rations.
The Estonian public has also provided substantial help. According to a survey from the data collector company Norstat, 51 percent of households in Estonia have donated money to charities or causes supporting Ukraine. Furthermore, around a third have provided help to refugees from Ukraine. The government has also made significant efforts to give support to Ukrainian refugees, providing them with similar rights as Estonian residents – for example, the right to study and work and get health insurance. In addition, refugees are provided with accommodation if necessary and are entitled to subsistence allowance to meet their basic needs, a move that emphasises the nation’s solidarity with Ukraine.
Having experienced the Soviet occupation and repressions, Estonia’s support of Ukraine is unlikely to change, with Estonian Minister of Defence Hanno Pevkur stating that, ‘there can only be one response from Estonia – continuing the provision of aid to Ukraine with the objective of helping Ukraine win the war.’ From the Estonian perspective, helping Ukraine is also helping Estonia, with Pevkur announcing that the choice to support Ukraine today limits Russia's ability to behave erratically in the Baltic region in the future.