Latvia: Financing Ukraine and Increasing Security Expenses
Latvia, the most central of the three Baltic States, lies on the Baltic coast of Northern Europe. It shares borders with Lithuania, Estonia, Russia, and Belarus, as well as a maritime border with Sweden to the west. Since 2002, the United Nations has classified Latvia as part of the Northern European country group. Having restored its independence from the Soviet Union in 1990 after decades of occupation, Latvia became an EU and NATO member in 2004, adopting a clear western-oriented policy.
Russia’s attack on Ukraine shook Latvian society to the core, with Latvia’s officials condemning it as soon as a full-scale invasion was reported. The Latvian parliament described the attack as an ‘illegal, deliberate and planned interference in the sovereignty of Ukraine, the purpose of which is to provoke a military conflict with the intention of occupying a part or even the entire territory of Ukraine’. Since then, the Latvian official position and foreign policy course have stayed the same, with Latvia being one of Ukraine’s key EU supporters. Since the beginning of the conflict, Latvia has provided substantial financial, humanitarian, and military aid to Ukraine. In fact, Latvia’s government is the highest contributor to Ukraine globally in terms of aid as a percentage of GDP, allocating 1.01 percent of its GDP, with the lowest contributors - New Zealand, Turkey, and South Korea - giving only 0.01 percent. The general public has also offered their material support, with the Latvian research centre SKDS reporting that 45 percent of the Latvian population have made donations to Ukraine, as of April 2022. In addition, a number of Latvian companies have joined the ‘Entrepreneurs for Peace’ movement (‘Uzņēmēji mieram’), collecting financial donations, goods, and promoting volunteering opportunities.
Latvia has also offered significant support to refugees from Ukraine. The refugees are entitled to up to 120 days of free accommodation and catering, monthly financial allowances, food and essential support packages in addition to the same employment conditions, health care services and education as Latvian residents, among other benefits. In addition, a support centre has been opened in Riga, the capital of Latvia, offering temporary protection, application for housing, enrolment of children in school, and psychological support.
While providing help to Ukrainians has been a key development, the war in Ukraine has also led to some changes to Latvia’s future policies. The attack on Ukraine raised some serious security concerns, with the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky stating that in the case of Ukraine falling, ‘Baltic States will be next’.Indeed, there is some worry among the general public. It is reported that almost one-third of the Latvian-speaking population believes a Russian attack on the Baltic states is realistic. Nonetheless, Latvian politicians dismiss the prospect of a Russian invasion, arguing that there is no immediate threat to their region. They have, however, admitted that there are still security weaknesses that they would like to address with the help of NATO. To tackle the issue, all three Baltic republics have committed to spending 2.5 percent of their annual GDP on defence, above NATO's target of 2 percent. Additionally, along with Lithuania and Estonia, Latvia has called for NATO to establish a bigger and more permanent presence in the Baltic States.
Notably, to fully understand the current security concerns, one must look at Latvia’s historical relationship with Russia. In 1940, during World War II, Latvia was occupied by the Soviet Army, completely subjecting it to the ideological and political dictates of Communism.
In just the first year of Soviet occupation, about 36,000 Latvians were murdered or deported to northern Russia and Siberia. In addition, Latvians experienced forced Russification in the form of massive immigration of Russians, which significantly changed the ethnic makeup of its population, creating a large Russian minority and leading Latvians to fear that they could become a minority in their own country. In addition, the Latvian culture was suppressed following the enactment of Russian as the official language in Latvia, with many noteworthy cultural, academic, and scientific work also produced in Russian. The Latvians were expected to become bilingual, while the Russians who immigrated to Latvia were not expected to learn Latvian. The education system was forced to follow Soviet directives, which reflected Russian interests. Meanwhile, the Latvians never accepted their occupation, longing for the demise of the Soviet Union and their independence. Historically and geographically,
While, as discussed, Latvia managed to regain its independence, the bitter past left its marks, which were reflected in some of the country’s reactions to the events in Ukraine. Having a significant Russian minority (24.2 percent of the population) due to past forced immigration, several new policies emerged. First, the country announced an education reform, which would move to education only being provided in the Latvian language beginning in 2025. In addition, Latvia banned all Russia-based TV channels, following the implementation of legal amendments banning Russian media channels that ‘threaten the territorial integrity and independence of another country from operating in Latvia. Finally, after Russia’s President Vladimir Putin ordered a partial mobilisation of troops, with 300,000 Russian citizens in the military reserves called up to serve in Ukraine, Latvia announced that it will not offer refuge to any Russians who want to avoid mobilisation. Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics wrote on Twitter: ‘Due to security reasons, Latvia will not issue humanitarian or other types of visas to those Russian citizens who avoid mobilisation’. In addition, Latvia has ended tourist visas for Russians, urging the EU leaders to adopt the same policy.
While there is no doubt that these policies have been influenced by the country's history, aan additional significant factor is Russia’s weaponization of the Russian minorities living in the former Soviet republics. An example of this is separatist rebellions in Ukraine where Russians and pro-Russian fighters have been influenced, assisted, and even directed by the Russian government. Additionally, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin used the right to protect ethnic Russians from discrimination in foreign countries as one of the justifications for invading Ukraine in 2022. Interestingly, a Pew Research Center survey published in 2017 showed that 70% of those who self-identified as ethnic Russians in Latvia believed Russia ‘has an obligation to protect ethnic Russians living outside of its borders’. This creates a legitimate security concern for Latvia, given Russia’s past tendency to justify its military intervention by portraying ethnic Russians in the former Soviet countries as vulnerable groups that require protection from hostile governments.
Thus, in general, the policies in Latvia illustrate that the military, financial, humanitarian, and diplomatic backing in Ukraine is partly based on its painful past experiences. Consequently, it is highly unlikely for Latvia’s pro-Ukraine policies to change, with Latvia’s president encouraging the EU to grant Ukraine candidate status, and its Foreign Minister stating that Latvia would welcome Ukraine's accession to NATO. Rather, it has encouraged Latvia to distance itself further from Russia. While some moves, such as banning supplies of natural gas from Russia, are of practical nature, others are more symbolic. An example of this is the demolishment of the Soviet-era monument built in 1985 to honour Soviet soldiers who ended the country’s World War II Nazi occupation, a monument which Latvians associate with being under Soviet rule. Thus, while Latvia’s actions show solidarity with Ukraine, they also signal its willingness to part with its Soviet past once and for all.