Implications of French Snap Elections 2024
On Sunday, June 9, the French people went to the polls to elect their representatives in the European Parliament. The results showed a clear victory for the far-right party Rassemblement National, led by Marine Le Pen. In response to President Macron’s party’s devastatingly poor results, he unexpectedly announced that he would dissolve the French National Assembly and call new elections, ushering in a period of unprecedented political uncertainty in France, with potentially far-reaching consequences for France and Europe's future.
The European Parliamentary Elections
From 6-9 June, voters across Europe went to polls to elect 720 members of the European parliament. The results of the elections have confirmed the surge of far-right parties in EU member states. However, no single bloc gained an overall majority.
The European People’s Party (EPP) emerged as the largest party, securing 186 seats. They have nominated European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as their candidate for the next Parliament’s leader. In the new parliament, conservative and social democratic groups will still need to partner with either the Greens or the Liberals to form a majority, continuing the trend from the previous five years. A potential challenge could arise if the EPP assumes a more prominent role, as parties within this group face varying competition from right-wing populist parties domestically.
Despite falling short of poll predictions, right-wing and far-right parties experienced notable gains, especially in Germany and France. In 2019, far-right groups had 165 elected members, comprising just over 20% of the total. In 2024, these groups collectively could secure around 170 of the 720 seats in Parliament, approximately 24%.[1] However, political trends differed across countries. Centre/left parties in Denmark, Sweden, and Finland enjoyed a successful election, and the Social Democrats in the Netherlands made a substantial comeback.
In France, a coalition including President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party received just 14.6% of the vote, while the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) won 31.3%. This performance, significantly surpassing the 23% of votes they secured in 2019, could potentially make the RN one of the largest, if not the largest, national delegations in any political group within the European parliament. The centre-left and Socialist candidates won 13.8 per cent.
The European Parliament vote is often viewed as an indicator of public dissatisfaction. A survey conducted on the voting day suggested that nearly half of the voters aimed to primarily express their dissatisfaction with Emmanuel Macron and his administration.[2] The rise of far-right parties in European elections reflects the global political and social polarisation, stemming from the various crises EU citizens have faced since 2008. The economic climate continues to significantly influence public opinion, stoking frustration and anger over increasing living costs. Far-right groups persistently exploit insecurities related to immigration, a major concern in Germany, Poland, and France. [3]
Macron’s Strategy
Following a massive loss for his Renaissance party in the European Parliament election, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that he would dissolve the National Assembly and call for new parliamentary elections on June 30 and July 7.
Several reasons might underlie this decision:
Seize the Initiative: Following a disappointing result for Macron’s centrist Renaissance party in the European Elections, Macron stated in his address that he wants to return power and responsibility to the French people. The snap legislative election, he said, would be a “moment of clarification”. By calling elections now, Macron hopes to create a surprise effect and potentially gain an advantage. Analysts suggest Macron is challenging French voters to replicate their European Parliament voting behaviour in domestic elections by presenting voters with a clear choice: maintain the status quo of a pro-EU, pro-Ukraine, centrist government, or risk a far-right government. Thus, his decision on new elections is an attempt to seize the initiative and quell the far-right. He sees snap elections as a last-ditch effort to curb the far-right tide and rally mainstream voters.
Lack of Majority in the National Assembly: Macron’s alliance lost its outright majority after the French Parliamentary elections in 2022. This has made it challenging for the President to accomplish its politics and reforms, as he has lacked the necessary support. Analysts have thus doubted that Macron would be able to make progress with the current parliament and would be tempted to dissolve the assembly within one or two years after the 2022 Parliamentary elections.[4] Macron hopes that voters can now deliver outcomes that would benefit the President and provide the political clarity that has been missing since his centrist alliance lost its majority in 2022.
Furthermore, the opposition had threatened to topple the government with a no-confidence vote in the autumn over the annual budget, which included approximately €25bn in public spending cuts to address the growing deficit. The budget debate is projected to be intense, with potential street protests over unpopular spending cuts. The logic was that it would be better that he acted now rather than wait for things to go wrong in the autumn.[5]
Show RN's Incapability of Governing: Some observers interpret this move as a strategic gamble, aimed at giving the French people a preview of far-right governance. Macron might be attempting to illustrate the RN's inability to govern effectively in an effort to prevent Le Pen's election as president at the end of his term in 2027.
Current Coalitions
Rassemblement National (RN)
Already the largest opposition party in the National Assembly, the RN has a robust campaign machine and electoral momentum following their European election victory.
From Paris business circles to Brussels, and even within Macron’s own party, the possibility that the RN could gain sufficient seats in parliament to form the next government is creating alarm. RN could then name a prime minister — potentially Le Pen’s protégé Jordan Bardella — and fill cabinet posts.
Les Républicains
The centre-right party’s leader, Eric Ciotti, unilaterally agreed an alliance with the far-right. However, furious colleagues on the party’s executive unanimously voted to expel Ciotti, but the decision was overturned by a Paris court on Friday night, leaving it unclear who was in charge of the list of candidates.
Nouveau Front Populaire / New Popular Front
It took four days for the leftwing parties, La France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Communist party and the Greens parties to reach an agreement on a political alliance for the elections.
The creation of the New Popular Front could seriously harm the prospects of pro-Macron candidates by making it much harder for them to qualify for the second round run-off on July 7.
The coalition has unveiled a platform promising to increase wages, restore purchasing power to French citizens and lower France’s legal retirement age to 60 from 64. It said it would pull away from the European Union’s free trade treaties, which the coalition says kill French jobs through globalisation. The program leaves certain points of disagreement unresolved, such as those on nuclear power, NATO, and the economy. They have still not chosen a leader for their alliance.
Barely two days after it was formed, there are signs of cracks within the alliance. The far-left leader of the LFI, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has launched a purge of moderates in his party who had previously criticised his extreme positions. The move by Mélenchon, a deeply polarising politician, prompted a furious reaction from the purged members and their sympathisers.[6]
Potential outcomes
President Macron has stated that he will remain President regardless of the election results. What remains to be elected is the composition of the National Assembly and the government, as the Prime Minister and government must have a majority backing in the National Assembly.
If the President’s party secures an absolute or relative majority, the President can appoint the prime minister. If an opposition group gains an absolute majority, it can push through its own choice. If no party secures an absolute majority, the President can influence the appointment but will need to negotiate with other parties to form a government.
Three possible outcomes could result from these elections:
The RN wins an absolute majority: In a scenario where the RN wins the absolute majority of the National Assembly, more than 289 out of 577 seats, the RN are able to form a government of their own. This would lead to cohabitation, a power-sharing government with Macron as President and RN’s party leader Jordan Bardella as most likely the Prime Minister. The RN government would theoretically be able to implement its program, including strict immigration curbs, reclaiming control of energy policy from Brussels, and establishing “national preference,” favouring French nationals over non-citizens in public sector jobs and social housing.
RN is the biggest party but falls short of the absolute majority: Early opinion polls indicate that the RN would win 235 to 265 seats in the National Assembly, short of 289 needed for an absolute majority.[7] In this scenario, one must find a candidate as Prime Minister who has parliamentary support.
Victory of a Coalition: A coalition capable of deciding and governing together, led either by the presidential majority or the far-right. The Nouvel Front Populaire could, for example, win an absolute majority.
No Majority or Coalition: This would be a situation of disorder in which no party can form coalitions to establish an absolute majority. Consequently, it would be highly challenging for the President to appoint a prime minister, leading to a significant political crisis.
At present, it's challenging to predict the outcomes of the snap elections on June 30 and July 7 due to uncertainties regarding voter turnout, political alliances, and the ad-hoc nature of the campaign. For example, regarding voter turnout, it's difficult to predict the turnout in working-class neighbourhoods of Ile-de-France, which has a considerable number of registered voters but traditionally high abstention rates. Concerns about the far right might significantly increase participation in these polling stations. However, the impact on the number of National Rally deputies elected might be minimal, given the strong left-wing presence in these cities.
Another challenge arises from the multitude of candidates and shifting alliances. Although this situation may become clearer by the application deadline on June 16, the dissolution has sparked upheaval across all political camps. Both the right and left have seen internal divisions and negotiations, and it remains unclear how voters will respond to the various electoral options. Finally, there's the issue of a campaign spanning less than three weeks. Candidates will need to quickly organise their efforts, print materials, visit markets, host electoral meetings, and decide on their platforms.[8]
Based on a modelling by Le Figaro, the candidates need to win more than 12,5 per cent of registered voters in the first round to go to a run-off in the second round.[9] Current polls show that the far-right bloc is in the lead with 362 seats. The left is ahead in 211. Macron’s centrist bloc is ahead in only three (all of them seats for French people abroad) and the centre-right in one, the wealthy 16th arrondissement in Paris.
This would mean that the second round would come down to a fight between two camps: Le Nouveau Front Populaire and the far-right would battle it out in 536 seats. Macron’s alliance would make the run-off in only 41, and LR in three.
[1] Gilles Ivaldi, “EU elections: far-right parties surge, but less than had been expected”, the Conversation, June 10, 2024. Accessed here.
[2] Clea Caulutt, Victor Goury Laffront, Sarah Paillou & Pauline de Saint Remy, “Is Macron too toxic to win?”, Politico, June 12, 2024. Accessed here.
[3] Gilles Ivaldi, “EU elections: far-right parties surge, but less than had been expected”, the Conversation, June 10, 2024. Accessed here.
[4] Victor Mallet, “‘Ungovernable’ French parliament to stymie Emmanuel Macron’s reform drive”, Financial Times, June 20, 2022. Accessed here.
[5] Leila Abboud, “Why Emmanuel Macron went all in against Marine Le Pen”, Financial Times, June 11. Accessed here.
[6] Ben Hall, “France’s new leftwing bloc begins to crack ahead of snap elections”, Financial Times, 16 June. Accessed here.
[7] Elizabeth Pineau & Michel Rose, “France's far-right National Rally projected to win snap election without absolute majority”, Reuters, June 11, 2024. Accessed here.
[8] Luc Bronner, « Législatives 2024 : ce que l’on sait pour l’instant sur les projections électorales dans les 577 circonscriptions », Le monde, 13 June, 2024. Accessed here.
[9] Guillaume Tabard, “Législatives: d'après la projection des européennes, les macronistes et LR menacés de disparition”, Le Figaro, 12 June, 2024. Accessed here.